Fantasy Football: Will Sam Darnold Win the Starting Gig Over J.J. McCarthy?

The Minnesota Vikings were one of the most fantasy-relevant teams heading into last season, but injuries derailed both their real-life season and in-team fantasy production.

Now that the Kirk Cousins era is over, we've got a lot more question marks with this group. The always threatening Justin Jefferson is still around, but the Vikings aren't destined for dominance, owning a 7.5 win total with +138 odds on the over and +250 odds to make the NFL playoffs.

The biggest uncertainty lies at the quarterback position. Following the departure of Cousins, Minnesota signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract. The team went on to select J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

With training camp underway, we should get a bit more clarity on this race, but it's a tricky battle considering we have an unproven veteran up against an unproven rookie.

FantasyPros' consensus ADP data shows us that McCarthy is currently being selected as QB26 at pick 186th overall while Darnold comes in as QB34 at pick 213.

Will either of these signal-callers provide fantasy value? Let's check out this training camp battle and figure out if either QB could be destined for success.

Sam Darnold vs. J.J. McCarthy Training Camp Battle

Can Darnold Capitalize on the Opportunity?

All signs point to Darnold being under center for Week 1's game against the New York Giants.

He was QB1 at the end of spring and seems to be the clear favorite to win the starting gig coming out of training camp. Head coach Kevin O'Connell stated that Darnold "will be taking the majority of his reps with the first group" in camp. Meanwhile, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that McCarthy would have to be "all-world in the next six weeks" to get the starting nod.

So, we can probably delete that question mark regarding who we will see under center in Week 1. However, Darnold's ability to perform and maintain the starting gig is a whole different story.

He spent last season as Brock Purdy's backup and was entrenched in muddled groups in the five seasons prior with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers.

In his first two seasons with the Jets, which featured 26 starts, Darnold threw 36 touchdowns to 28 interceptions. In the next two seasons with Big Blue and Carolina, Darnold recorded more turnovers (24) than touchdowns (18). He had the lowest EPA per drop back in the NFL through his first three seasons.

This all sounds really bad, and it is -- but does the former third-overall pick from the 2018 NFL draft carry some untapped potential?

He's thrown only 186 pass attempts across his last two seasons, though he did log 1,440 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in that span and had better passer rating marks than normal.

Darnold's most recent start came in a trivial Week 18 game for the Niners last season. He threw for 189 yards via a 61.5% completion rate. He also tossed a TD and ran in a score without turning the ball over. We're reaching if trying to deduce much from that meaningless game, but perhaps Darnold's veteran status can make him an asset to Minnesota. He was marred by his own play and the disorganized groups in New York and Carolina, but Minnesota has a great system in place for their QB.

The Vikings enter the season with the 10th-ranked offensive line (via PFF) and Darnold will be armed with intriguing targets in Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, the latter of whom is on the mend from an ACL tear.

He's set up for a higher degree of success than ever before, and Minnesota seems to be ultra-protective of exposing McCarthy. Minnesota is said to be "impressed" by what they've seen from Darnold thus far. We should take this with a grain considering the importance of instilling their expected Week 1 starter with confidence. However, we shouldn't let our preconceived notions of Darnold rule our opinion too much. He's working within an awesome system and could be primed for a comeback season.

McCarthy's Uncertain Path

The former Michigan Wolverine might not be relevant in Week 1, but when will see McCarthy get a chance?

If Darnold underperforms, that day may come sooner than expected. But if the Vikings find success under Darnold, Minnesota doesn't seem to have any issue delaying McCarthy's debut.

Minnesota's GM affirmed that the team has no plans to "rush his development." O'Connell echoed that statement, insisting that the rookie will start when it is in the best interest of both McCarthy and the team.

The Vikings are a smart organization, and we can't blame them for approaching the 21-year-old McCarthy with hesitancy. Early exposure has ravaged the careers of many signal-callers, and Darnold himself is a great example.

Jordan Love's successful and slow-paced development track could be a new trend. This plan is made a bit more difficult for Minnesota given the unknowns with Darnold, but the Vikings are focused on the long-term with McCarthy, not the short-term.

Who Has the Edge?

As mentioned, ADPs have McCarthy at QB26 and Darnold at QB34.

Rookie quarterbacks always bear some risk. Add in a potentially slow-paced development track, and McCarthy's relevance in fantasy football isn't surefire.

Darnold is the underdogs of all underdogs, and his poor reputation makes him an unpopular fantasy option. We don't know how well he will perform or how long he will serve as Minnesota's QB1.

However, we do know that he has an excellent play-caller on his side in O'Connell. We also know that he will be armed with one of the most dominant receivers in the league in Jefferson and an exciting background cast in Addison, Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Add in a quality offensive line, and Darnold has all the fixings for a bounce-back season.

When deciding between an exciting newcomer and a former draft bust, the potential of the next big thing will always draw more eyes. The young McCarthy could outperform his development plan, but Darnold holds valuable upside at his ADP.

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