FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Saturday 9/7/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Today's pitching pool is a great lesson in looking at performance over outcome.

Jose Berrios having a salary encroaching $11,000 checks out in the box score with six straight outings of at least 42 FanDuel points, but in addition to a tough Atlanta Braves order on the other side, Berrios' season-long 4.91 expected ERA (xERA), 41.8% hard-hit rate allowed, and 1.48 HR/9 allowed show way too many issues when two other aces are in solid matchups.

The first is Logan Gilbert ($10,300), whose 3.18 xERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and tiny 4.7% walk rate all rank in the 75th percentile or better across baseball. The opposing St. Louis Cardinals have heated up to a .732 OPS against righties in the past 30 days, but this game's paltry 7.0-run total shows plenty of trust in Gilbert to tackle the Redbirds.

Secondarily, Dylan Cease ($9,700) at a four-digit salary has to be the focal point of any format. Cease has some of the highest upside across baseball in any given start with a 3.30 xERA, .210 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 30.3% K rate that can compete with anyone. At pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Cease draws a San Francisco Giants lineup that sold bats at the deadline and have limped to a .647 team OPS and 28.0% punchout rate against righties in the past month of play.

Tyler Anderson ($8,400) draws a Texas Rangers lineup that absolutely can't hit lefties, per a .570 team OPS over the last 30 days in the split. Cooper Criswell ($6,500) also faces the lowly Chicago White Sox in the bargain bin if you want to go bananas with stacks, but keep in mind that he's not topped 80 pitches in the past month.

At any salary level, there are viable alternatives to leave the hot-running Berrios out of the mix.

Stacks to Target

• Milwaukee Brewers (4.84 implied team total)
  • I have no idea how the Brew Crew aren't today's top implied total against Ty Blach's league-worst 6.87 xERA, .316 xBA, and 11.1% K rate among MLB qualifiers -- especially when the Colorado Rockies' bullpen is struggling over the last month (4.54 xFIP; second-worst in MLB). If the inconsistent Boston Red Sox (4.89 implied team total) draw popularity away from them when set to face Garrett Crochet, it's a gift.
• Los Angeles Dodgers (4.60)
  • Anderson and Criswell are the alternatives mentioned if you want to go nuts at the Dodgers' top guys -- and it's definitely warranted. Gavin Williams' 4.03 xERA, 8.9% walk rate, and elevated flyball (38.6%) and hard-hit (43.1%) rates tackle the star-studded lineup in MLB's second-best park for homers this evening. They don't often carry extreme popularity at lofty salaries, as well.
• Minnesota Twins (4.26)
  • Without a doubt, Minnesota is my favorite core stack with salaries that fit a Cease build like a glove. Alec Marsh's 4.70 ERA has a 4.91 xERA behind it, and his .267 xBA, 43.0% flyball rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom 35% of MLB qualifiers. This one shouldn't be a surprise if you caught today's MLB best bets article.
• Los Angeles Angels (4.02)
  • Just about any other lineup in baseball would be worth hammering struggling prospect Jack Leiter (7.00 xERA) and a waffling Texas Rangers bullpen (4.21 reliever xFIP in the last 30 days), but the Angels are the Angels. Still, Taylor Ward ($3,200), Logan O'Hoppe ($2,900), and Mickey Moniak ($2,700) would get a passing grade in this split recently and could be helpful if Leiter just isn't ready for the big show.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.