Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Rams at Lions

No matter how far apart the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions seem to drift, they always seem to find each other again in massive spots.

After the Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford deal, these teams met in the Lions' first home playoff game since 1991 last season. Detroit eeked out a one-point win to move on, but both teams once again have aspirations for the big prize in 2024 -- and it starts with this post-Carrie Underwood matchup.

The NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have the Lions as a 4.5-point favorite in the rematch on Sunday, and this game has a whopping 52.5-point total. Where are the best bets for this week's edition of Sunday Night Football?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Rams at Lions

Lions -4.5 (-105)
Lions Over 14.5 Points in First Half (+110)

Frankly, I don't see the Rams as Super Bowl contenders as many do. While Sean McVay's gang has always been a tough out with Matt Stafford upright and healthy, this defense could face peril given the offseason loss of a now-retired Aaron Donald.

Even with the three-time Defensive Player of the Year, L.A. was numberFire's eighth-worst schedule-adjusted defense a year ago. Any sort of projection of a decrease should put them in the bottom five of the league with several other poor defenses -- like Detroit -- having a significant case for improvement. The Lions added three new starters to the secondary that all come with great upside, including Carlton Davis from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and rookie Terrion Arnold with a first-round pick. Arnold was considered by some the best corner in an ambiguous draft to rank them. They also added Marcus Davenport to help the pass rush.

Largely, both offensive cores remain identical to last postseason's matchup, but the Lions' defense has gotten a lot better, and the Rams is likely worse. It's hard to feel like Detroit doesn't win a bit more convincingly to open up what could be a special season.

As for this game's total, the Lions' defense makes for an ambiguous overall handicap. This is a huge number to clear (52.5) even if both offenses are clicking, so any early-season stumble out of L.A. could be costly. I prefer to keep to Detroit's side for expecting points, which could have easily been their team total: Lions Over 28.5 Points (-104). However, the math here lines up for taking the first-half spread if the Rams might not be as competitive as oddsmakers believe.

Detroit had the eighth-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league last year, meaning we could expect them to take the air out of the ball and run clock in the second half with a lead. They're likely not reaching the full-game total if afforded a comfortable margin, meaning it's best to take the better number (+110) unless you'd project a shootout type of environment late -- one we're avoiding away from the full-game total already.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.