Fantasy Football: Which Teams Will Score More Points in 2024?

Last week, we ran through the projected total points scored for each NFL team in 2024.

This is based on my totals model and gives an expected point total for each team across the course of a season.

Nothing on that list will be all that surprising; good teams will score points, and bad teams won't.

Potentially the more important application is digging into which teams will see the biggest deviations from one year to the next. This way, we can try to pinpoint players who may be undervalued in fantasy football with more touchdowns coming their offense's way this time around.

Let's do exactly that today. Below is the list of the five teams expected to receive the biggest year-over-year scoring boosts from what they did in 2023, again based on my model.

Most Improved NFL Offenses

New England Patriots

2023 Points: 236 | 2024 Projected Points: 329.9

From the "It couldn't get much worse" department, we bring you the team expected to see the biggest scoring gain in 2024: the New England Patriots.

Last year, the Patriots tied the Carolina Panthers with the fewest points scored at 236. They're still projected to rank just 28th in points scored this year, but even that is a gain of 93.9 points in a single year.

Some of this is due to special teams. Chad Ryland was abysmal last year (though he aided in the tank to land Drake Maye, so chalk him up as a team player) and should naturally improve in his second season, assuming he makes the team.

But they also just have a higher floor now that Jacoby Brissett is in town and they've got extra (though inexperienced) juice at pass-catcher. We should have higher expectations for them this year; it's just a question of whether that'll be enough to consider their players values in fantasy.

Rhamondre Stevenson isn't exactly a bargain, coming off the board as the RB17 in FantasyPros' half-point-per-reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP). He's got a non-negligible new contract and should be able to find paydirt more often, but there's a good amount of opportunity cost there.

Instead, we may want to focus on the pass-catchers if trying to buy low on the offense.

Here, there's no opportunity cost. Hunter Henry has the highest ADP of the pass-catchers at pick 174, and all the others are basically undrafted.

My personal preference is to take swings at the receivers (Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker) and see what happens through the rest of camp. If it becomes clear that a player won't have a significant enough role, you can simply cut them and look elsewhere, but there is definitely volume on the table in an offense that should be slightly less miserable this year.

New York Jets

2023 Points: 268 | 2024 Projected Points: 354.0

It's a lot easier to have optimism on this side of the rivalry. But a lot of that is already baked into the market.

In Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, the New York Jets have two players within the top 14 picks in half PPR drafts right now. And you can understand why, as well, given their concentrated usages and that they have Aaron Rodgers back in the saddle.

I'm not opposed to those two players at their current cost. I just have a hard time getting jazzed about any of the secondary pieces in this offense.

Even with the big gains, the Jets are still projected for just the 23rd most points on offense, by my numbers. That may seem low, but it's tough to get super, super high on an older quarterback coming off a brutal injury, led by a coaching staff with a track record that is poor at best.

More than anything, this projected improvement just helps justify Hall and Wilson at their current draft slots. We'd need a bit more upward movement in order to buy into those with lesser volume.

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Points: 371 | 2024 Projected Points: 450.6

Projections, you had my curiosity. Now you have my attention.

Given they went on to win the Super Bowl, it's easy to forget how much the Kansas City Chiefs' offense struggled last year. But they ranked just 15th in total points scored, one slot behind the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Grim.

But now, not only do they once again have more giddy-up at pass-catcher, but we can just bank on general regression for an offense quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes. That's a bet we should be willing to make.

The key beneficiary for me is Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is currently the RB12 on FantasyPros, sitting at the turn between the second and third rounds. He scored nine touchdowns last year, even with an underperforming offense and Jerick McKinnon swooping in to steal red-zone work. That number should increase this year.

Pacheco played at least 70% of the snaps in each of his final five games last year, so I have a hard time not drooling over him at his current draft slot.

Carolina Panthers

2023 Points: 236 | 2024 Projected Points: 314.8

It ain't great when you're projected for the fourth-largest increase in year-over-year scoring and still DFL in total projected points scored.

But that's what we get with the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are projected to average 18.5 points per game, up from 13.9 last year. That's more of a condemnation of last year than an endorsement of high expectations for 2024.

Luckily, though, nobody here comes at a high draft slot with zero Panthers currently inside the first 85 picks. And I do think that could create some value.

Specifically, Diontae Johnson is interesting as the WR38.

Last year, even with Bryce Young struggling mightily, Adam Thielen scored 20-plus FanDuel points in 3 of the first 6 games, and he topped 16 in another. He tailed off as the year went along, but this offense can support a fantasy-relevant pass-catcher if he earns enough volume.

Johnson has proven he can do that. He earned a 23.6% target share in his full games last year. That came while competing with George Pickens for targets, a stiffer task than we should reasonably expect out of any of the others in this offense. Efficiency has never been Johnson's forte, but we may not need it to be if he can garner enough volume.

Johnson's currently an eighth-round pick in 12-team drafts. With sunnier days for this offense on the horizon, I think we can get behind Johnson at such a forgiving slot.

Atlanta Falcons

2023 Points: 321 | 2024 Projected Points: 388.3

All weirdness in the draft aside, the Atlanta Falcons are absolutely, 100% an improved offense this year with Kirk Cousins in town. It's entirely possible that's being a bit undersold by the market.

Thanks to Cousins' signing, the Falcons rank 14th in projected total points for me this year. That's after they finished 2023 down in 26th.

That's a ton of extra tuddies on the table and is enough to justify Bijan Robinson as a mid-first-round pick. I'm fully on board with that enthusiasm.

The bigger value, though, may be Drake London, currently going at the back end of the second round.

London has averaged 2.07 and 1.87 yards per route run in his first two years, according to PFF. That came despite poor quarterback play both seasons, and we should expect an up-tick in routes, as well, in a more pass-friendly scheme.

That's the yardage side of things. But the touchdowns should flow, too. London has just six total career touchdowns thus far, and betting markets expect an increase there in year three.

London had a 28.6% red-zone target share in the games he played last year. He can earn targets in scoring territory, and they should have more trips there this year, as well. Even at a lofty draft slot, I don't think it's insane to say that London is a value right now.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.