Fantasy Football: Projecting Which Teams Will Score the Most and Fewest Points in 2024

Offensive environment is crucial in fantasy football.

The majority of fantasy points come from yardage and touchdowns.

The better a team is, the more of each of those to go around. Volume plays a big role, too, but if you want to maximize upside, your best bet is to target the most lethal offenses.

Using my totals model and preseason win projections, I projected out the total points scored for each team this upcoming season. These numbers account for offseason player and coach movement, attempting to predict how good each offense will be with its current personnel.

My totals model factors in wind speed pretty heavily, and we don't know what wind speeds will be in-season. Thus, I had to use average wind speeds during the fall for outdoor stadiums in order to get a "best guess" for each venue.

Once accounting for those factors, here's what the model spit out for each team's projected point total in 2024.

The San Francisco 49ers are freakshows. This number currently assumes Brandon Aiyuk will be with the team, but they'd likely still be the league-leaders even without him.

Some other quick notes on potential surprises:

• I'm projecting a big step forward for the Arizona Cardinals, who averaged just 19.4 points per game last year. Kyler Murray's efficiency increased as he got further removed from his ACL tear, and they now add Marvin Harrison Jr. into the fold. This makes me pretty keen on James Conner, currently going as the RB22 in Fantasy Pros' half-point-per-reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP) data.

• I'm generally above market on the New Orleans Saints this year, but I don't think having them 15th on this list is too outrageous. I'm actually projecting they score fewer points this year (386.5) than in 2023 (402). They've got quality firepower on offense, and Derek Carr -- despite his flaws -- can command efficient units. Both Alvin Kamara at RB17 and Rashid Shaheed at WR54 seem like fun targets.

• The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns are both low on this list, given their win totals of 9.5 and 8.5, respectively. This is largely because I have a hard time projecting massive levels of efficiency for either quarterback, whether due to age, health, or recent effectiveness. Both have fun players who can garner tons of volume, but it does lower the appeal of secondary pieces for both squads.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.