Ever since Lamar Jackson blew up for 1,206 rushing yards in 2019 -- the most ever by a quarterback -- he's been firmly entrenched as one of the first QBs off the board in fantasy drafts.

However, he's never quite matched that magical 2019 campaign, as he averaged an absurd 28.1 fantasy points per game that year compared to roughly 21-23 points a game in the four seasons since. Add in multi-week injuries in 2021 and 2022, and his fantasy finishes from 2019-23 have been QB1, QB10, QB15, QB14, and QB4 in total points.

Last year's QB4 result was no doubt a success, though, and in 2024, Jackson is being drafted as the fourth fantasy quarterback and just outside the top 40 overall, per FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data.

Jackson hasn't always lived up to his ADP, but he's coming off his best finish since 2019 and remains one of the most lethal runners at the position. Let's dig into how we should expect his upcoming campaign to shake out.

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Outlook

Jackson the Runner

Jackson led all quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards last year -- his most since 2020 -- and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him lead the way yet again. He's been first or second in QB rushing yards in all six of his seasons despite limited starts as a rookie and a pair of injury-shortened campaigns.

However, his 51.3 rushing yards and 9.3 attempts per game were actually below his career averages of 61.1 and 10.2, and it's fair to assume Jackson will scale back his running as he gets older. But at just 27 years old, a steep drop-off shouldn't be coming just yet, and few signal-callers can realistically flirt with 800-plus yards on the ground.

FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL rushing props have set Lamar's rushing yardage line at 725.5, and no other QB comes in above 550.5.

But if we're going to nitpick one aspect of his running upside, it's that he doesn't have the goal line opportunities of Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen.

According to Pro Football Reference, Jackson owned a solid 28.0% red zone rush share in 2023, but that dropped to just 16.7% inside the 5-yard line. In contrast, Hurts saw a whopping 53.3% share inside the 5 while Allen was at 43.8%. Both Hurts and Allen ranked second among all positions in rushing touchdowns (15), whereas Jackson scored 5 times.

Given that the Ravens added battering ram Derrick Henry to bolster their backfield this year, there's even less reason to expect them to increase Jackson's usage near the goal line -- particularly with him reportedly dropping weight this offseason.

This does put him behind the other two in rushing TD upside -- both Hurts and Allen figure to be in the mix for double-digit scores again -- but this shouldn't diminish the fact that Lamar can still have his share of spike weeks behind huge chunks of rushing yardage alone.

Jackson the Passer

Perhaps the most promising development from Jackson's 2023 performance was his passing output under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Last season, Jackson was 8th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop back (0.06), 10th in completion percentage over expectation (1.7%), and 1st in passing success rate (56.9%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. He was also fourth in passing yards per attempt (8.0) and third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.4).

The end result was a career-high 3,679 passing yards to go along with 24 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions.

There's potential for Lamar to build off these marks with the return of star tight end Mark Andrews, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11, and Zay Flowers is coming off a promising rookie year. Rashod Bateman is a potential fantasy sleeper, and any notable strides from him could go a long way toward solidifying this pass-catching group.

Note that the Ravens have offensive line concerns entering 2024, which could be a hurdle for Jackson improving his passing production. Still, even more or less the same output from Jackson would do just fine. After all, he comes into 2024 as the reigning MVP for a reason.

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Projection

According to FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections, Jackson is on track for a QB3 campaign with 3,877 passing yards, 26.3 passing touchdowns, and 10.8 interceptions along with 944 rushing yards and 6.0 rushing scores. These numbers assume a healthy campaign over 17 games.

This would shake out to 21.8 fantasy points per game, which puts him in line with last year's average (21.1).

Jackson belongs in roughly the same tier at the position as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes, but he tends to come at the lowest draft cost of the four, which is a nice added bonus. While Allen still deserves top billing as fantasy's best quarterback due to the best combination of rushing and passing upside, his ADP is a bit rich, and these four should arguably be taken in the third round and particularly the fourth round in 12-team formats.

While some of the quarterbacks who come right after this group have tantalizing potential, like C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, this top tier has already proven they can finish at or near the top of the fantasy QB leaderboards -- and Lamar's 2019 campaign remains one of the best of all time.

It's unlikely we'll see him reach those heights again, as it required both an absurd passing touchdown rate and historic rushing production. But even getting partway there could result in him finishing as the overall QB1, and that ceiling is something to still consider chasing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.