Is Josh Allen Still the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football?

Josh Allen has been a dominant force in fantasy across the last four campaigns, finishing as the QB1, QB1, QB2, and QB1 over that span while never averaging fewer than 24 fantasy points per game.

With a track record like that, it's no surprise that Allen is almost universally the first QB off the board with an overall average draft position (ADP) inside the top 20, per FantasyPros.

However, there is one added wrinkle for Allen in 2024. Not only did the Buffalo Bills trade away his top wideout, Stefon Diggs, this offseason, but virtually his entire wide receiver corps will be different this year.

Considering the shake-up of his supporting cast, is Allen still a no-brainer as the top quarterback in fantasy? Or should we be passing on him at his lofty ADP?

Josh Allen Fantasy Football Outlook

Allen's Still Going to Run

If there's one thing we can always count on from Allen, it's the immense value he brings to the table as a rusher, and there's little reason to think that will change in 2024.

Over his career, Allen has averaged 7.0 rushes and 38.4 rushing yards per game, and while he dipped slightly below those marks last season (6.5 rushes; 30.8 yards), tacking on roughly 3 fantasy points a game on top of his passing production does wonders for his weekly floor.

What's even more encouraging is that there's reason to believe Allen could run even more this year. After Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11 last year, the Buffalo QB averaged 9.2 rushes and 47.1 yards over his final nine games (including the postseason). Allen averaged 40-plus rushing yards per game in both 2022 and 2021, so it wouldn't be out of the question for him to do so again.

But where his rushing prowess really goes to the next level is when it comes to touchdowns. Allen tallied a whopping 15 rushing scores last year, which was tied for the most at the position alongside "tush push" specialist Jalen Hurts.

While we probably shouldn't expect that many TDs in 2024 -- his previous career high was nine -- his usage near the goal line under Brady was once again encouraging. Allen's red zone rush share went from 28.1% to 33.3% following the change at OC, and for context, only Hurts (40.4%) and Justin Fields (37.3%) were above 30% among qualified QBs. He might not reach 15 touchdowns again, but another season with double-digit scores isn't out of the question.

Who's Catching the Passes in Buffalo?

With so much production coming from Allen's legs, we don't need him to be elite with his arm to be a top-tier fantasy quarterback. Yet, he's ranked inside the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns in each of the past four campaigns and finished top-5 in both categories last season. He's truly the full package.

However, he accomplished all that with star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and with Diggs out of the picture, there's no clear WR1 in Buffalo entering the season.

In fact, not only is Allen's top wideout gone, but so is WR2 Gabriel Davis, along with depth pieces Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. While Buffalo still has talented tight end Dalton Kincaid -- his 91 targets were the second-most on the team -- these subtractions leave Khalil Shakir as the sole returning wideout who played meaningful snaps in 2023.

Throw in some minor turnover in the backfield, as well, and out of the Bills' 545 targets last year, 308 are being vacated (56.5%) by these departures, and 241 are from Diggs and Davis alone. That's... a lot.

The Bills have completely overhauled their pass-catching group with an influx of new weapons, and the most notable additions are rookie Keon Coleman (33rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) and free agent signee Curtis Samuel.

With those two joining Kincaid, Shakir, and running back James Cook as the key pieces of this offense, can we realistically expect Allen to retain the majority of passing production we've seen these last four seasons?

Actually -- he just might.

Room for Optimism

Among qualified starters in 2023, Allen was fourth in expected points added per drop back (0.11), ninth in completion percentage over expected (1.9%), and third in passing success rate (53.4%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Even with an assumed dip in efficiency, we would need a whole lot to go wrong for Allen to completely fall off as a passer.

Additionally, the loss of Diggs may not be as significant a blow as we might expect. After bursting out of the gate for 100 or more receiving yards in five of the first six weeks last year, Diggs faded and wouldn't hit that mark in any of the 13 games that followed -- including both postseason contests -- averaging just 48.9 receiving yards per game. Despite this, Allen still finished as the QB1 and would've scored 30-plus fantasy points in both playoff games.

While no one will mistake this 2024 group of pass-catchers as one of the NFL's best, it at least has some promise.

Despite often splitting snaps with fellow tight end Dawson Knox, Kincaid is fresh off an encouraging rookie campaign, finishing with the team's second-most receptions (73) and third-most receiving yards (673). He's a potential breakout candidate.

As for the wideouts, Coleman is the most likely one to emerge as the top option after being drafted just outside the first round, and he's already turning heads in training camp. The versatile Samuel had his best statistical season in 2020 with Joe Brady as his OC for the Carolina Panthers, accumulating career-bests in receiving yards (851) and rushing yards (200). Upon seeing a bump in playing time in Week 8 last year, Shakir would post a team-best 1.99 yards per route run the rest of the way.

Josh Allen Fantasy Football Projection

FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections are predicting another QB1 finish for Allen, pegging him for 4,426 passing yards, 31.6 passing touchdowns, and 15.5 interceptions alongside 561 rushing yards and 8.9 rushing scores.

While this assumes Allen plays all 17 games, it's pretty clear that our model sees little to no change in his passing production despite the losses of Diggs and friends.

Allen's closest competition atop the fantasy QB hierarchy are Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. As the projections show, it's likely that Hurts leads all signal-callers in rushing TDs, Mahomes is at or near the top in passing yardage and scores, and Jackson racks up the most QB rushing yardage. But Allen is still the only one who could realistically finish inside the top 10 -- maybe the top 5 -- in all of those categories.

Even if these projections are a bit too bullish on Allen's passing production, it's hard to see him dipping below the passing output of either Hurts or Jackson, and we know he'll run far more than Mahomes.

If we go by his NFL passing props on FanDuel Sportsbook, Allen's lines are set much higher than Hurts and Jackson, particularly when it comes to passing touchdowns. The Buffalo quarterback's line is set at 27.5 passing TDs, whereas Hurts is at 21.5 and Jackson is at 22.5.

Ultimately, if you're planning to draft quarterback early, Allen's top-20 ADP might be a smidge too rich in 12-team drafts where you might be forgoing on an elite RB or WR in the second round. However, he should be strongly considered as the first quarterback off the board in rounds three or four.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.