Fantasy Football: Dalton Kincaid Can Shine As the Bills' Primary Option
This intro goes out to silver medalists of any industry. You all can likely empathize with Dalton Kincaid's rookie season.
At one of the hardest positions for rookies to succeed, Kincaid had a stellar rookie season as an important part of the Buffalo Bills' passing attack. Some might argue that, at points, he even usurped Stefon Diggs as Josh Allen's go-to target.
Yet, Kincaid had the bulk of his shine stolen by Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta who, as a rookie, was the TE1 in fantasy football (in half-PPR settings) by 20.0 fantasy points on a team that nearly won the NFC Championship.
Though not 2023's top performer from his draft class, Kincaid could absolutely avenge that deficit to LaPorta in 2024. Massive shifts in his situation -- and continued growth -- project room for his fantasy profile to sprout. Yet, after Joe Brady took over, the Bills were one of the NFL's most skewed teams toward the run, which could leave him with fewer opportunities than one would hope at his current average draft position (ADP).
Will a massive exodus of pass-catching talent help or hurt Kincaid's 2024 production. Is he the player who is most positioned to carry the load for Buffalo? Let's look at the former Utah Utes' star's outlook for this upcoming football season.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football Outlook
A Debutant in the Shadows
The tight end position isn't the epicenter for fantasy points, so even while looking at Dalton Kincaid's up-and-down 2023 campaign, the end result was pretty solid.
Kincaid finished as the TE12 with 113.8 half-PPR points in 16 games played, which might have been even more impressive having to compete with the overall TE41 (Dawson Knox) for snaps early in the season. He didn't break 7.0 fantasy points in a game until after missing Week 6 with a concussion and ran just 65.2% of the team's routes to that point.
From Week 7 onward, Kincaid averaged 6.5 targets per game (a 20.6% share), which was ninth at the position. This largely survived through the shift to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator in Week 11 despite Brady and the Bills' 46.5% designed rush rate that was second-highest in the NFL during his brief tenure.
The athletic prospect's talent was on display in 2023, posting the 15th-highest air yards per game (34.8) and 10th-most yards per route run (1.68) among those at the position who saw at least 5.0 targets per game. That's the part that is most exciting; if given a larger workload, Kincaid gave early indications he can turn it into fantasy points.
The rookie tight end returned decent value as the 11th tight end off the board on average, but a 1.2-point dud in Week 16 (the first round of the fantasy playoffs for many) left a bad taste in some mouths. His modest work in Brady's run-first scheme -- though inconsistent -- does check off one of the red flags of drafting Kincaid as the TE4 on average in FanDuel's best-ball drafts (37.2 overall ADP).
An Empty Room
There is no more ambiguous high-level passing game -- or at least a projected one -- in the NFL entering this season than that of the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen is firmly established as a superstar, but he's also firmly without a single reliable, known quantity to catch footballs. Both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis bolted in the offseason, leaving Khalil Shakir as the incumbent top producer at wide receiver. Shakir's pair of playoff touchdowns resonated with casual fans, but his 11.3% target share in Brady's tenure wasn't exactly a vote of confidence to step in and snag 100 balls.
In free agency, the team gave Curtis Samuel a contract to man the slot off a solid season with the Washington Commanders where he hauled in 91 passes out of the slot. However, Samuel's 7.1 average depth of target (aDOT) -- and long record of that sort of aDOT -- shows the limited amount of work that can funnel through him.
The Bills also added Keon Coleman in the 2024 NFL Draft as their top selection. The big-bodied wideout notably had 798 yards with the Michigan State Spartans in 2022, outproducing teammate Jayden Reed (636) that season. However, a disappointing 658-yard campaign in the 2023 season with the Florida State Seminoles -- where he earned just a 24.9% target share that didn't even lead the team -- dropped him to the second round.
All in all, Kincaid is the most reliable pass-catcher of this group that returns the team's largest target share from a year ago. Even with Samuel producing similarly as a wideout, his experience with both Joe Brady and Josh Allen likely gives him a proverbial tiebreaker as "the guy" entering the 2024 season. We've seen how valuable that role has proven to be in fantasy football for Travis Kelce in recent Kansas City Chiefs seasons where their superstar quarterback lacked a true top receiving threat, which is why Kincaid is being drafted so far ahead of his 2023 production.
Fort Knox
Even before embarking upon a look at Kincaid's 2024 projection, I knew about his up-and-down (but largely solid) rookie season. I knew that the Bills have seen a mass departure from their wide receiver room. However, I wanted to dig into what happened to Dawson Knox in 2023 and whether he and Kincaid can co-exist this season to form a rare two-headed monster at tight end.
The obvious answer for "what happened to Knox" would be the selection of Kincaid, but it was a bit more layered than that. Coming off two straight seasons where he eclipsed 45 catches, 65 targets, 515 receiving yards, and 6 receiving TDs, Knox broke his wrist and missed five games in 2024. Before that, he had a higher snap share (68.1%) and a near-identical route rate (61.7%) to Kincaid inside the Bills' offense.
Knox is a former third-round pick who was a top-15 fantasy tight end (in half-PPR) in each of the two aforementioned seasons, and then in 2024, he got hurt while playing a larger role than Kincaid. However, we did get a sample of the two under Brady that suggests the former Ute should trump the former Mississippi Rebels standout.
After the offensive coordinator switch during Week 11, Kincaid ran 69.6% of the Bills' routes compared to a miniscule 34.8% for Knox with both players healthy. In terms of expected fantasy points, Kincaid's 7.6 per game dwarfed Knox's 2.2.
Because of the offseason changes at wideout, I could absolutely see a world where Knox is introduced more into the passing game as the Bills lean into a run-first identity in 12 personnel. That's a possible outcome for Knox, a proven touchdown scorer. However, Brady's seven-week sample proves that he valued and used Kincaid significantly more often, so I walked away from this review not concerned about Knox's presence for him.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football Projection
As you'd expect, numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections didn't miss some of the changes to Dalton Kincaid's outlook in the upcoming season.
It's estimating 94.1 catches on 137.1 targets, 938.3 receiving yards, and 6.9 touchdowns for the Bills' tight end when assuming a healthy, 17-game season. That all wraps into 134.7 half-PPR fantasy points, which is good for the TE6 overall in the model.
The receiving props at FanDuel Sportsbook are a bit lower baking in projected injury. Kincaid's yardage line sits at 775.5 as a pick 'em, and his touchdown line (5.5) leans toward the under with -124 yards.
While injury is always a factor, those are among the most attractive betting lines I've seen in the market to this point, which bodes well for Kincaid's fantasy hopes, too. I'm significantly more optimistic on the former first-round pick's ability to jump ahead as Josh Allen's top target. After all, he does have the highest draft capital invested among pass-catchers to this point.
If given an upgrade in work from 2023, Kincaid showed enough flashes of talent to handle it and deliver a top-three season at tight end. LaPorta was the clear second option on his team to deliver the top overall season last year, and we know Allen -- fifth in expected points added per drop back (0.12 EPA/db) after Joe Brady's promotion, per NFL's NextGenStats -- can lead an efficient unit as well as anybody.
I find myself leaping at Kincaid in the third and fourth rounds of fantasy drafts after the initial tight end selections have begun. Access to Allen's top target at the position that could be dubbed "the fantasy football graveyard" is really difficult to pass up.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
