Fantasy Football: Weighing the Concerns Around Rachaad White in 2023

You just finished your fantasy football draft, and your platform of choice has graded you out with an A+. You picked up supreme value at several spots and have a roster your friends are terrified to face.

Guess what? That team can still stink because it's the NFL. Injuries happen, situations change, and the unpredictable becomes wholly predictable.

Sometimes, the best picks in fantasy football that win you a league were ones you took by default -- or chances you took around the warts. The "safe" play tore his ACL in Week 3, but your flawed eighth-rounder? He's seen all of the competition leave his backfield with a quarterback and offense blooming with unexpected success.

We don't have high hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023. They just lost Tom Brady two years removed from cementing his G.O.A.T. status with a title, and the NFL win total odds at FanDuel Sportsbook peg the Bucs at just 6.5 potential dubs behind a now-settled quarterback competition that's noise or impact wouldn't have even woken your orange cat. Trust me, if you've had an orange cat, you know they'd wake up if it made any noise at all.

As a result, we're not expecting career years from their skill-position players in fantasy football this year, but if there's a guy who might have a chance, it's not either of their accomplished wideouts. It's second-year running back Rachaad White in the athletic prime for his position.

Can White pay off a late-round dart, or is he a trap in an offense that might devolve into a fantasy football sinkhole?

Rachaad White 2023 Fantasy Football Projection

Projections are via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 204.6 (114.1 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: RB18
2023 Projected Stats:

• 244.7 carries
• 1050.8 rushing yards
• 6.7 rushing touchdowns
• 45.9 receptions from 63.1 targets
• 297.5 receiving yards
• 1.9 receiving touchdowns

Rachaad White Fantasy Football Outlook

In an odd season for Tampa Bay overall last year, Rachaad White absolutely followed the team's dynamic. Despite being a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, White wasn't really expected to compete for a large role.

That's because the Bucs retained the services of Leonard Fournette at Tom Brady's request, and Brady obviously wanted him on the field. In 11 of their 17 games, Fournette played at least 60.0% of the offensive snaps, leaving just bits and pieces for White along the way.

That was until their Week 10 game (in Germany) where Fournette injured his hip. White logged 64.0% of the Bucs' offensive snaps and tallied 105 rushing yards on 22 carries. After their bye, White lept into 90.0% of the snaps in Week 12, topping 100 scrimmage yards again -- this time aided by nine targets in a negative game script.

Fournette returned the following week, but that short stint of White in a dominant role showed promise in an offense led by the G.O.A.T.

Does he have that same juice to produce in one of the league's least effective offenses?

Not His First Bumpy Rodeo

If there's anything White has experience overcoming, it's a bad football institution.

The Arizona State Sun Devils have won double-digit games just three times since 1997, but Rachaad was one of many recruits who were intrigued by former New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards' promise to build up ASU.

White's only season as the primary starter was in 2021, which was Edwards' best year despite a loss in the Las Vegas Bowl. The running back was a massive reason why. He posted 1,006 rushing yards on just 182 carries, and White added another 456 yards on 46 receptions from LSU's current starting quarterback with NFL aspirations, Jayden Daniels. He also posted 16 total scores.

That dual-threat season for a program not particularly keen on talent opened the eyes of NFL draft evaluators. His outstanding measurables drew comparisons to former fantasy football legend David Johnson. In fact, White said himself that he modeled his game after Johnson. That's not a bad game to model, and his receiving work is a direct tell.

That ability to run and catch the ball gives White the potential to stay on the field all three downs in the NFL. That's not a trait that is supremely common at his current ADP, which sits as the RB27 on average, per FantasyPros. In this similar range, Isiah Pacheco -- albeit in a much better offense -- saw just 14 targets last year as his team called upon others to handle the pass-game work.

Give and Bake-r

Of course, we're pretty much exclusively concerned with White's offense -- not necessarily his ability.

The Bucs have proven, productive receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but their offensive line should be an issue. They were ranked 14th in PFF's pre-preseason offensive line rankings, and that won't be aided by veteran center Ryan Jensen now done for a second consecutive year. At best, this is a bottom-third unit, and at worst, it could be one of the league's weakest.

They'll also be quarterbacked by former top pick Baker Mayfield following Mayfield's dismal exits from multiple spots -- even if the Los Angeles Rams just let him walk for cap relief after a 2-3 tenure that wasn't awful. In many ways, that sample with the Rams -- given their own offensive line woes -- is probably the best to foretell how his tenure in Tampa might look while remembering that his receiving personnel was worse.

In short, it does demonstrate that Mayfield, in an offense with challenges, was able to navigate quite the end to the fantasy football season for Cam Akers, who was also a second-day selection like White. Akers popped with Mayfield under center:

Now, this isn't to say White is destined to be a top-five running back this season, which would have been Akers' ranking with a 16.4-point-per-game average if extrapolated to a whole season. It would also be totally fair to have a higher opinion of Sean McVay, Cam Akers, and the L.A. Rams as an offensive infrastructure in general.

The larger takeaway, in this case, is that Mayfield didn't actively detract from his running back's ability to produce in what wasn't a particularly advantageous situation without Cooper Kupp, and a logical conclusion is that's largely the factor that has sunk his ADP to this position.

For instance, White is going behind running backs like Dalvin Cook and James Cook with major workload concerns given their situations. He's also going behind James Conner in a hefty role, but his projected starter, Joshua Dobbs, doesn't really have a recent sample of keeping offenses afloat like Mayfield did for Akers.

If White's workload is right, he may have dropped too far in drafts based on negative buzz around Mayfield that might not be as relevant to this situation as perceived.

Are There Any Challengers?

The latest concern for White is a recent one. Throughout the summer, it was believed he'd be a one-man show that mirrored the 90% snap rate in Week 12 last year. There aren't many backs at White's ADP who wouldn't be worth that workload.

However, there is buzz that Tampa's running back room might be better than we thought.

There is a slight risk veteran Chase Edmonds picks up third down work as he has in the past, but Edmonds was let go from two organizations in 2022 after posting the worst rushing yards over expectation per carry among backs that got at least 60 chances (-1.26). It's hard to see his performance turning to now dethrone White.

The real challenger might be Sean Tucker, who emerged as an undrafted free agent to earn the Bucs' number-two job. Tucker had solid production for three years with the Syracuse Orange, but a suboptimal NFL frame and an injury history in school ultimately did keep him from getting his name called in April.

Then, there's Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who predated White and has just 79 carries in three seasons since being a third-round pick in 2020. He's an option but was bested by White last year.

Tucker is the leader in the clubhouse to make a substantial impact, but it still doesn't exactly pass the smell test when White was a third-round pick and given such a prominent role as a rookie. The Houston Texans added Devin Singletary to the fold, but Dameon Pierce isn't seen as under attack. He's still being drafted as the RB17 after an RB22 season on a points-per-game basis.

White is going 10 backs later because of...an undrafted free agent?

An Uninspiring -- But Potentially Effective -- Lead Running Back

As a believer in White entering the 2022 NFL Draft, I was disappointed with his landing spot with Leonard Fournette firmly entrenched in Tampa Bay last season, but I did want to re-evaluate him entering this year with an open mind to not fall head over heels for him just because he's poised for a full role with Fournette now gone.

The initial stench of a Baker Mayfield-led offense for a team with a 6.5-win total was definitely present, but Mayfield's run with the L.A. Rams might have proved just enough that some of the complete, disastrous situation to avoid with the Carolina Panthers was mostly at the hands of others.

In Los Angeles, Mayfield supported Cam Akers to excellent production behind an iffy offensive line and a weaponry situation that was undoubtedly worse than Tampa's. Beyond Godwin and Evans, rookie Trey Palmer has been one of 2023's brightest training camp surprises. Even with a pro bowler now out for the season at center, it's also hard to imagine Mayfield's offensive line would be worse than the Rams' one was in 2022.

If this offense is just remotely functional, White could detonate his current ADP in value with minimal real competition to touches. Even if Sean Tucker and others mix in to spell White closer to a 65.0% snap share, only 10 running backs averaged that rate of snaps in their active contests last season. That's an elite workload that is usually gone by the end of round two, but White can linger into the sixth round of some fantasy football drafts.

Finally, White has showcased at both the collegiate and NFL level that he has the skills to handle a three-down workload, and he hasn't missed a game due to injury since a 2021 breakout at Arizona State. Tampa Bay also has six games on its schedule against teams that were bottom-10 rush defenses in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play last season, so his personal schedule is pretty soft.

In 2024 fantasy football drafts, it's possible White has shot into the first two rounds of the draft as a three-down option that is primed for a significant upgrade at quarterback. It's best to buy the RB27 in 2023 now if that ends up being the case.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.