Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 10

With nine games showing an over/under north of 45 points via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Week 10 is shaping up to be a strong fantasy slate across the board.

But with so many high-total matchups, start/sit decisions aren't any easier this week. That's compounded by another heavy bye week as four teams -- Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Seattle -- are off this week.

Don't sweat, though. I have you covered.

As always, this piece lists out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Here's a quick breakdown of the tiers:

• Tier 1: Lineup Locks
  • Players you aren't thinking twice about.
• Tier 2: Solid Starts
  • Players you start with confidence.
• Tier 3: Flex Plays
  • Players you start but with less confidence.
• Tier 4: Streamers
  • Players that work in a pinch.
• Tier 5: Sit if Possible
  • Players you're only starting as a last resort.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 10

Quarterback

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 10 Fantasy Football quarterback projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 10 quarterback tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. CIN
Josh Allen (BUF) @ IND
Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ DAL
Joe Burrow (CIN) @ BAL
Jayden Daniels (WSH) vs. PIT
Brock Purdy (SF) @ TB

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Sam Darnold (MIN) @ JAC
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) @ ARI
Kirk Cousins (ATL) @ NO

C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs. DET
C.J. Stroud hasn't lived up to expectations in fantasy this season, particularly over the last three weeks. Stroud's been held under 13 fantasy points in three straight games, during which he's the QB31 in fantasy points per game. But star receiver Nico Collins is eligible to come off IR this week, setting up Stroud for a bounce-back performance at home. Though Detroit is second in schedule-adjusted pass defense, they're middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to QBs and bottom 10 in pressure rate. In 17 regular season games that Collins has played at least half of the snaps in Stroud's career, Stroud has averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. DEN
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) @ LAR
Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. MIA
Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. NYJ
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) vs. MIN

Daniel Jones (NYG) @ CAR

Daniel Jones is coming off his best game of the season, notching 24.4 fantasy points while completing 77% of passes and posting a 48.3% passing success rate. That was his fourth time cracking 18 fantasy points, and it came against a rapidly improving Commanders secondary. This week's matchup is much easier as the Panthers are 31st in adjusted pass defense and have allowed the most fantasy points per dropback. Jones is a quality streamer this week -- just do yourself a favor and sleep through his 9:30 a.m. ET start in Munich.

Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. TEN
Don't look now, but the Chargers are throwing the football. Since their Week 5 bye, LA is 12th in raw pass rate and second in PROE (pass rate over expectation). That's propelled Justin Herbert to 18 fantasy points per game -- 12th among quarterbacks -- over that stretch. Talent has never been the question with Herbert in fantasy football, so he's back in the starting conversation given LA's newfound love for the air. Tennessee is league-average in fantasy points per dropback allowed to quarterbacks, and they just lost starting safety Quandre Diggs for the season. Star corner L'Jarius Snead is also banged up, missing three straight games.

Tier 4: Streamers

Jared Goff (DET) @ HOU
Caleb Williams (CHI) vs. NE
Russell Wilson (PIT) @ WAS
Bo Nix (DEN) @ KC
Joe Flacco (IND) vs. BUF

Baker Mayfield (TB) vs. SF
Baker Mayfield continues to put up numbers, even with his top two wideouts sidelined. Mayfield notched 18 fantasy points for the eighth time in nine games last week, completing 74% of passes on the road in KC. That should give us more confidence starting him until Mike Evans returns, but I'm still not thrilled to start him against San Fran. The Niners are top 10 in fantasy points allowed per dropback and sixth in adjusted pass defense. Tampa's 22.5-point implied total at least offers Baker a decent floor, but there's not much upside this week.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Drake Maye (NE) @ CHI
Will Levis (TEN) @ LAC
Bryce Young (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)
Derek Carr (NO) vs. ATL

Running Back

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 10 Fantasy Football running back projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 10 running back tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Christian McCaffrey (SF) @ TB
Bijan Robinson (ATL) @ NO
Derrick Henry (BAL) vs. CIN
Kyren Williams (LAR) vs. MIA
Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs. BUF
Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. ATL
Breece Hall (NYJ) @ ARI
Aaron Jones (MIN) @ JAC
Saquon Barkley (PHI) @ DAL
De'Von Achane (MIA) @ LAR

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Joe Mixon (HOU) vs. DET
D'Andre Swift (CHI) vs. NE
J.K. Dobbins (LAC) vs. TEN
James Conner (ARI) vs. NYJ
Kareem Hunt (KC) vs. DEN
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) @ HOU
James Cook (BUF) @ IND
David Montgomery (DET) @ HOU
Brian Robinson (WSH) vs. PIT

Chase Brown (CIN) @ BAL
Chase Brown smashed in his first game sans Zack Moss (IR-neck), turning 37 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) into 157 total yards and a touchdown. He saw easily his highest snap rate (78.9%) of the season, so it's easy to get excited about his rest-of-season outlook. Even so, we should temper expectations a bit this week. Baltimore has permitted the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs, and they've been thrown on at the second highest rate in football. There's still enough volume to feature Brown in your starting lineup, but this feels more like a floor game than ceiling week.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) @ CAR
Tyrone Tracy is one of my favorite starts of the week. Yes, the rookie struggled last week (7.4 fantasy points; 4.2 yards per attempt), but he was again the clear lead back in New York. He out-touched Devin Singletary 17 to 7 while dominating snaps (41 to 18) and seeing all three of the Giants' running-back rush attempts in the red zone. We've already seen Tracy clear 100 yards from scrimmage three times this season, so the upside is there. That upside could be realized in perhaps the best running back matchup in the league. Carolina is 29th in adjusted run defense while allowing the most fantasy points to running backs and the lowest opposing pass rate. He's a borderline must-start.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Tony Pollard (TEN) @ LAC
Najee Harris (PIT) @ WAS
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) @ CHI
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)

Rachaad White (TB) vs. SF
There was a lot of buzz about Rachaad White's inefficiency early in the season, but strong recent play has him up to 0.04 yards over expectation per attempt -- sandwiched between Tyrone Tracy (0.06) and Alvin Kamara (0.00), according to Next Gen Stats. White has averaged 5.4 yards per carry since Week 4, during which he's the RB19 in fantasy points per game (13.6). This week's matchup is better than you'd think, too. San Francisco is just 26th in adjusted run defense and has been susceptible to pass-catching backs. That's good news for White as he's seen 9 targets over the last two games. He's a solid flex this week.

Rico Dowdle (DAL) vs. PHI
On one hand, Rico Dowdle is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season (19.2 points) -- one that saw him eclipse 100 total yards for the second time in three games. On the other hand, it's hard to feel great about this Dallas offense with Cooper Rush under center. Still, Rush threw for 115 yards and a touchdown in relief of Dak last week, and Dallas featured two backs that averaged double-digit fantasy points per game over a five-week stretch of Rush starts in 2022. Philly has been worse against the run than the pass, although there is some risk of Dowdle getting scripted out of the game. The Eagles are 7.0-point road favorites on Sunday.

Tier 4: Streamers

Bucky Irving (TB) vs. SF
Austin Ekeler (WSH) vs. PIT
Javonte Williams (DEN) @ KC
Tank Bigsby (JAC) vs. MIN
Travis Etienne (JAC) vs. MIN
Raheem Mostert (MIA) @ LAR
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) @ NO
Justice Hill (BAL) vs. CIN
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) @ KC

Jaylen Warren (PIT) @ WAS
In two games with Russell Wilson under center, Jaylen Warren has averaged 16.5 adjusted opportunities per game. That's fewer than starter Najee Harris (25), but it suggests Warren is a real part of this offense as he's playing close to 50% of snaps and getting so many looks. The Commanders are just 22nd in adjusted run defense, and they've allowed the most yards per carry (5.2) to opposing backs. That sets up Warren as a decent flex option, especially with some potential touchdown regression in the mix. PFF has 1.9 expected total touchdowns for Warren, but he's yet to score this season.

Jordan Mason (SF) @ TB
Though Christian McCaffrey is likely to be activated from IR this week, San Francisco isn't expected to feature him heavily. Considering the Niners are 5.5-point favorites against a Tampa side that has ceded the seventh lowest pass rate to opposing offenses, I can get behind starting Jordan Mason as a flex. The Bucs are 27th in adjusted run defense and bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, so there's upside if Mason sees work. That's a big if with so much ambiguity surrounding CMC. Mason is a risky start, for sure, but there's still a path to fantasy relevance for him this week.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Braelon Allen (NYJ) @ ARI
Jonathon Brooks (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)
Tyjae Spears (TEN) @ LAC
Ray Davis (BUF) @ IND
Roschon Johnson (CHI) vs. NE
Kimani Vidal (LAC) vs. TEN

Wide Receivers

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 10 Fantasy Football wide receiver projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 10 wide receiver tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Justin Jefferson (MIN) @ JAC
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) @ BAL
Tyreek Hill (MIA) @ LAR
Nico Collins (HOU) vs. DET
Puka Nacua (LAR) vs. MIA
Malik Nabers (NYG) @ CAR
Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. MIA
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) @ HOU
Deebo Samuel (SF) @ TB
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) @ ARI
Drake London (ATL) @ NO
A.J. Brown (PHI) @ DAL

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Davante Adams (NYJ) @ ARI
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. CIN
George Pickens (PIT) @ WAS
Darnell Mooney (ATL) @ NO
Terry McLaurin (WSH) vs. PIT
DeVonta Smith (PHI) @ DAL
Tank Dell (HOU) vs. DET
Josh Downs (IND) vs. BUF
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) vs. MIN
Ladd McConkey (LAC) vs. TEN

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. PHI
It's fair to be a little worried about CeeDee Lamb this week. Not only is Dak Prescott likely headed to IR, but Lamb himself is nursing a shoulder injury. Even so, it's hard to imagine sitting a player of Lamb's caliber if he is active. Though Cooper Rush is a clear downgrade from Prescott, Rush was serviceable in relief last week and has a track record of peppering Lamb with targets. Across five consecutive with Rush under center in 2022, Lamb saw a 35.3% target share and averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game. That should bolster our confidence in CeeDee going forward, even if we have to knock him down a tier against Philly. The Eagles are up to 10th in adjusted pass defense and have permitted the fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers over the last five games.

Khalil Shakir (BUF) @ IND
With Keon Coleman (wrist) and Amari Cooper (wrist) both banged up, Khalil Shakir is set up for enhanced usage in a strong matchup indoors against the Colts. Shakir has been a consistent fantasy option even with Buffalo's offense fully healthy, finishing as a top-36 WR in five of eight games. He's recorded at least 6 receptions and 50 yards in three straight games, commanding a 24% target share in that stretch. That sets him up well against an Indy defense that's 25th in adjusted pass D and plays zone at the second highest rate in football. Against zone, Shakir ranks 15th in yards per route run (2.37) and 12th in yards after the catch per reception (7.4).

Tier 3: Flex Plays

DeAndre Hopkins (KC) vs. DEN
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) vs. NYJ
Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) @ CAR
Jordan Addison (MIN) @ JAC
Jauan Jennings (SF) @ TB
Rashod Bateman (BAL) vs. CIN

Rome Odunze (CHI) vs. NE
D.J. Moore (CHI) vs. NE
The Bears have thrown for only 348 yards and scored 24 points across the last two games, so it's hard to feel great about Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. But both wideouts have seen a 22.5% target share and at least 6 downfield targets in that stretch, so I don't want to fully fade them in a home date versus the Patriots. New England is down at 28th in adjusted pass defense, and they've permitted the ninth highest target rate and seventh most yards per route run to receivers. Both are capable flex options this week.

Jameson Williams (DET) @ HOU
Jameson Williams is set to return from a two-game suspension this week, and he's "ready to roll," according to head coach Dan Campbell. As such, Williams can be immediately reinserted back into starting lineups. Williams has finished as a top 24 WR in four of six active games while leading the team in air yard share (32.4%). Houston has allowed the highest percentage of deep passing plays and second highest average depth of target (aDOT), so there's plenty of upside for Jamo in a game with a 48.5-point total.

Tier 4: Streamers

Jalen McMillan (TB) vs. SF
Keenan Allen (CHI) vs. NE
Calvin Ridley (TEN) @ LAC
Jalen Tolbert (DAL) vs. PHI
Courtland Sutton (DEN) @ KC
Xavier Legette (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) vs. BUF
Noah Brown (WSH) vs. PIT
Sterling Shepard (TB) vs. SF
Demario Douglas (NE) @ CHI
Andrei Iosivas (CIN) @ BAL

Xavier Worthy (KC) vs. DEN
Xavier Worthy only saw two targets in DeAndre Hopkins' breakout game last week, although he did lead their receiver's room in route participation (77.6%). Even so, it snapped a three-game streak of six-plus targets and solidified his role as a tertiary option in KC's offense. There's still big-play potential, but there's real downside given the new target competition. As a result, I'm not going out of my way to start Worthy this week. Denver has allowed the sixth fewest yards per route run to receivers and ranks third in adjusted pass defense. Worthy's merely a streamer this week.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA) @ LAR
It's close to panic time for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle hasn't finished as a top-36 WR since Week 1, and he's combined for just 13.1 fantasy points in two games since Tua's return. While he still posted a stellar 83.1% route participation in those two games, that's brought only a 12.3% target share his way as De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith have taken on larger roles in the passing game. Even so, we know Waddle has fantasy upside, and it was at least encouraging to see him catch a touchdown last week. With the Rams down at 22nd in adjusted pass defense and bottom five in yards per route run and aDOT allowed to WRs, there's still a nice ceiling for Waddle. But the floor is lower than you'd like for a player of his caliber.

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Jalen Coker (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)
Darius Slayton (NYG) @ CAR
Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL) @ NO
Cedrick Wilson (NO) vs. ATL
Mason Tipton (NO) vs. ATL
Gabriel Davis (JAC) vs. MIN
Quentin Johnston (LAC) vs. TEN

Diontae Johnson (BAL) vs. CIN
We shouldn't fault Diontae Johnson for a zero-point outing in his Ravens debut -- he ran just four routes, after all. Still, a short week this week won't do Johnson any favors in getting acclimated to the offense, and it's not like Baltimore lacks pass catchers. Considering Johnson is thought of as Baltimore's WR3, there's essentially no floor here. He's a pretty easy sit.

Tight Ends

Here are the FanDuel Research Week 10 Fantasy Football tight end projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 10 tight end tiers.

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

George Kittle (SF) @ TB
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. DEN
Evan Engram (JAC) vs. MIN
Trey McBride (ARI) vs. NYJ

Tier 2: Solid Starts

Cade Otton (TB) vs. SF
Kyle Pitts (ATL) @ NO
Jake Ferguson (DAL) vs. PHI
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) @ JAC

Mike Gesicki (CIN) @ BAL
Mike Gesick exploded for 24.5 fantasy points last week, catching 5 of 6 targets for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did that on just a 36.6% snap rate -- though we can expect that number to climb with Erick All out for the season. With Tee Higgins slated to miss another game, Gesicki is super intriguing against a Ravens defense that has surrendered the third most passing yards and second highest opposing pass rate this season.

Tier 3: Flex Plays

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) @ IND
Hunter Henry (NE) @ CHI
Sam LaPorta (DET) @ HOU
Zach Ertz (WSH) vs. PIT
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. CIN

Taysom Hill (NO) vs. ATL
Taysom Hill notched 14 fantasy points last week as he did a little of everything for a hobbled Saints offense. Taysom caught 4 of 5 targets for 41 yards while rushing 5 times for an additional 19 yards and a touchdown. He notably saw two of New Orleans' seven red zone rush attempts, and it's hard to imagine his role diminishing with Chris Olave nursing a concussion. Hill scored twice when he faced Atlanta earlier in the season, and he figures to have a strong red zone role again on Sunday. He's a viable starter.

Jonnu Smith (MIA) @ LAR
Over his last four games, Jonnu Smith has commanded a 22.6% target share. Tua has been active for two of those, feeding Smith six targets apiece in both games. Such heavy utilization puts Jonnu in the starting conversation this week against a Rams defense that's allowing the second most yards per route run and third most fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends. There's touchdown upside, too, considering Miami's 24.5-point implied total.

Tier 4: Streamers

Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) vs. NYG (Munich)
Dalton Schultz (HOU) vs. DET
Will Dissly (LAC) vs. TEN
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) @ WAS
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) @ LAC

Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. ATL
Foster Moreau (NO) vs. ATL
Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau are both on the streaming radar this week with New Orleans likely down both of their top two wide receivers. Both of these tight ends cleared 60% route participation last week, with Johnson's snap rate climbing significantly in the second half without Chris Olave. They combined for just 4 targets but also tallied 58 yards and a score. Johnson has exceeded 40 yards in three of his last four games, so he's my preferred choice between the two. But Moreau has played nearly 80% of snaps the last two weeks and has the highest red zone target share among healthy Saints pass catchers (20.8%).

Tier 5: Sit if Possible

Tyler Conklin (NYJ) @ ARI
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. NE
Colby Parkinson (LAR) vs. MIA
Theo Johnson (NYG) @ CAR

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.