3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 4/18/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (+104)

Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara missed the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, and his comeback campaign has been a mixed bag with a 4.24 SIERA, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 12.7% walk rate over three starts. Hard contact as often been an issue for him over the years, and he's in the 25th percentile for hard-hit rate (46.5%), as well.

While it's still early, Alcantara has struggled against left-handed batters thus far, posting a 4.89 xFIP and 13.3% K rate while allowing 7 of his 8 earned runs in the split. This is particularly notable against a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that should have lefties in three of the top four spots in the order, including sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.

Further aiding the Phillies' bats will be winds blowing out to center at 10-15 mph in Citizens Bank Park, and Miami's bullpen has a league-worst 5.09 xFIP among active rosters. It all points to Philadelphia having a productive night at the plate, so we should have confidence in them scoring over 4.5 runs.

Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves

Over 8.0 Runs (-120)

Between temperatures in the 80s and a pair of suspect starting pitchers, we should see the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves put up some crooked numbers at Truist Park.

Minnesota will have right-hander Chris Paddack taking the mound, and while he's perhaps deserved better than his 9.49 ERA through three outings, we can get on board with attacking someone with a 5.06 xERA, 15.0% K rate, and 13.3% BB rate.

Meanwhile, fellow righty Bryce Elder will get the nod for Atlanta, and he's struggled, as well, posting a 5.36 xERA and 16.3% strikeout rate in his two starts.

Both pitchers were unsuccessful in 2024, too, with Paddack recording a 4.81 xERA and Elder producing a 5.04 xERA.

These offenses have been at least league average versus right-handers dating back to last season, and given the matchups, they should be able to do enough damage to hit the over on tonight's total.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

Mets Over 4.5 Runs (+100)

The New York Mets are in a good spot to put up runs tonight against St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas.

This is another case where the weather could give an edge to hitting, as winds will be blowing out to left at 20 mph. This will especially come in handy against Mikolas, who's put up a 4.71 xFIP, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 37.8% ground-ball rate over his three starts.

While New York has been around league average against right-handed pitching so far, if we include last season's numbers, their active roster owns the second-best wRC+ (121) and fourth-best ISO (.189) in the split. A lineup featuring Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso should be plenty productive in 2025.

Under these conditions, scoring five-plus runs should be well within reach for the Mets on Friday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.