3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 4/18/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Ben Rice is off to a blistering start for the New York Yankees, boasting a slash line of .317/.414/.650 paired with a .455 wOBA. Over his last seven games, he's launched three home runs. Rice has a favorable matchup to go yard tonight.

He has torched right-handed hurlers with a .395 batting average. The Tampa Bay Rays will put a righty on the mound in Drew Rasmussen, and while he's in the 74th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed thus far, Rice excels against his pitches. For example, Rasmussen's most-used pitches are cutters (34.1%), four-seam fastballs (30.1%), and sinkers (24.5%); Rice is batting .600 against cutters and .636 when seeing sinkers. His slugging is absurd against these two pitches, sitting at 2.000 and 1.182.

Our MLB DFS projections have Rice hitting 0.29 big flies, which holds a 25.2% implied probability (or +297 odds) for at least one home run. We are getting terrific value with +500 odds (or a 16.7% implied probability).

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Jorge Polanco comes off an uncharacteristic season in 2024, holding a slash line of .213/.296/.355. His batting average and OBP were both career lows by a wide margin. In his second season with the Seattle Mariners, Polanco is excelling early in the 2025 season.

The veteran infielder currently boasts a .378/.383/.622 slash line. His slugging is something to circle against the Toronto Blue Jays. Polanco is in the 94th percentile of xSLG, 84th percentile of barrel percentage, and 95th percentile of LA sweet-spot rate. Meanwhile, Toronto's starter Bowden Francis is in the 17th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 12th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed.

After posting 1.48 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9), Francis is giving up an alarming 2.12 HR/9 through three starts. Adding to the pick, Polanco holds a .385 batting average while slugging .667 against right-handed pitchers thus far. Francis allowed a fly-ball rate eclipsing 45.0% the past two seasons, and it's currently at 41.3%. Meanwhile, Polanco holds an impressive 23.1% home-run-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB).

Projections are once again pointing to great value as Polanco is in line for 0.30 dingers, implying a 25.9% implied probability (or +286 odds). In comparison, the current +450 odds has only a 18.2% implied probability.

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Marcell Ozuna has been one of MLB's best power hitters for a few years now, recording 39 and 40 homers in his last two seasons.

Early in 2025, Ozuna's numbers are still mighty impressive. For example, he posted HR/FB ratios of 24.7% and 23.1% the past two seasons. Ozuna currently carries a 23.1% HR/FB paired with a 40.6 FB%, which is also right around his usual averages.

The Atlanta Braves All-Star even has an impressive slash line at .306/.477/.531. Ozuna is batting .308 while slugging .564 against right-handed hurlers. He gets to face a susceptible righty in Chris Paddack on Friday.

Paddack is in the 39th percentile of barrel percentage allowed and 43rd percentile of hard-hit rate allowed. Plus, he's giving up a 46.3 FB%, which isn't too far ahead of last year's 41.2%. Opposing right-handed hitters are also batting .344 while slugging .563 against Paddack.

After allowing three long balls in his first start of the season, Paddack has managed to avoid homers since. However, this is something I expect to bare its fangs tonight, for the Braves tout the ninth-highest HR%. Ozuna is projected 0.33 home runs. If correct, this holds a 28.1% implied probability (or +256 odds).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.