Fantasy Football: Jonathan Taylor Can Return to Form in 2023

Indianapolis Colts star rusher Jonathan Taylor produced one of the best fantasy seasons we've seen from a running back position during his breakout 2021 campaign. He finished that year with 332 rushes for 1,811 yards and 18 rushing scores, each of which led the league He added 40 receptions for 360 more yards and 2 more touchdowns in a sensational effort.

That performance earned him the top spot in 2022 fantasy drafts, which made his fall from grace even more difficult to watch. He ended the 2022 season as arguably the most disappointing player in all of fantasy football, but 2023 is a new season, and Taylor is well-positioned to put himself back into the hearts of fantasy managers and atop the running back leaderboards.

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

Jonathan Taylor Overview

2022 Fantasy Points: 124.4

2023 Projected Fantasy Points: 256.5

2023 numberFire Ranking: RB3

2023 Projected Stats:

• Rush Attempts: 348.8
• Rushing Yards: 1,735.7
• Rushing Touchdowns: 9.6

Jonathan Taylor 2023 Fantasy Outlook

What Went Wrong in 2022

Before we can get into why numberFire is so optimistic about Taylor’s 2023 outlook, it’s important to understand just what went wrong for him during the 2022 season. Taylor entered the season as the first player drafted in most fantasy leagues only to become one of the most disappointing players in the league.

The biggest reasons for Taylor’s struggles were injuries, which freak occurrences that can happen to any player at any time. Taylor suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 4 of the 2022 season, forcing him out of the next two contests. He returned in a limited capacity in Weeks 7 and 8 before reaggravating the issue, and then, he sat out again in Week 9. He was able to suit up for a few games starting in Week 10 but suffered another ankle sprain in the opening snaps of the team’s Week 15 game against the Minnesota Vikings and missed the remainder of the season.

Even when Taylor was able to play through the pain, it was evident that the superstar was limited by his injuries. The ankle injury seemed to sap some of his power and explosiveness, limiting him to a career-low 4.5 yards per carry mark.

Things weren’t great for the Colts last year, either. The team had playoff aspirations after bringing in veteran quarterback Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons, but the 37-year-old looked physically washed from the opening snaps of Week 1. The team’s offensive line dealt with injuries of their own, which completely stymied any potential for a downfield passing attack. The whole offense became ineffective runs behind a banged up offensive line setting up third down passes well short of the sticks.

Taylor barely mustered even half of the production he amassed in his 2021 breakout season, finishing 2022 with 192 rushes for 861 yards and 4 touchdowns. The good news, however, is that sometimes all it takes is one offseason for things to get back on track.

Change Brewing in Indianapolis

Fortunately for Taylor – and those looking to draft him in fantasy football – 2023 is a new year. The turning of the calendar year will help the team heal up all of the injuries the team dealt with a season ago, including Taylor’s own. Simply entering the season healthy will help Taylor start the year on the right foot.

The 2022 season was bad enough that the team’s ownership stepped in and replaced former head coach Frank Reich partway through the season. Interim coach Jeff Saturday didn’t stick around, but the team was able to snag former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to become their new head coach. Given how well the Eagles have played in recent seasons – including their 2022 Super Bowl run – we don’t have much reason to worry about the Colts at the organizational level.

The team’s offense simply did not work with Matt Ryan under center last season, but things should get back on track quickly in 2023. The team selected former Florida Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, and according to team owner Jim Irsay, the rookie is expected to become the starting quarterback early in the season.

There’s no denying that Richardson is a raw prospect. The 21-year-old started just a single season for the Gators and completed only 53.8% of his passes in that season. However, what Richardson lacks in experience and polish, he should be able to make up with his unreal explosiveness and athleticism.

Once defenses see Richardson make use of the cannon he has for an arm, they’ll be hard pressed to stack the box against Jonathan Taylor. Ryan had the second-lowest average depth of target in the league among starting quarterbacks last season; he just wasn’t keeping defenses honest at all. Opposing teams had no reason to guard against deep passes, and the Colts’ offense collapsed in on itself. Richardson displayed a strong willingness to throw bombs at the collegiate level, producing 1,000 passing yards on 20-plus air-yard passes in his final season, and he should do a much better job of threatening opposing defenses deep than Ryan did a season ago.

Taylor Can Bounce Back

One of the most important things you can look for in a fantasy player is whether or not they’ve done something before. It’s fun and exciting to project breakouts, but it’s much more valuable to use your early-round picks on players that have shown an ability to produce at an elite level before. 2022 was a massive disappointment, but we’ve seen Taylor play like the best running back in the entire NFL as recently as 2021.

We don’t need Taylor to do something new to become one of the top players in fantasy football this season; we just need him to return to form. Even in his injury-marred season, Taylor still had 7 games with 20-plus carries while essentially only playing in 10 games. By comparison, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had 10 such games despite playing in 16 games. Even when he was hurt, Taylor still had one of the heaviest workloads in the entire league. His ability to garner an elite workload was one of the biggest reasons for his 2021 breakout campaign, and he should be able to get right back on track in 2023 now that he is healthy again.

The Colts’ easy schedule should work in his favor as well. Sharp Football Analysis ranks the Colts as having the third-easiest schedule of opposing teams in the entire league for 2023. The Colts have the benefit of playing in a soft AFC South division and will pair up against the NFC South for the upcoming season. This should put the team in as many favorable game scripts as they can hope for, which means we should see Taylor handle as many games of 20-plus carries as he can handle. At a position where volume essentially means everything for fantasy football, Taylor has a near-unrivaled path to 350 or more carries by the end of the season.

Buy The Dip

What a difference a year can make. The once unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy drafts had a tumultuous 2022 campaign but should right the ship in 2023.

His health was the biggest obstacle he faced in 2022, and the star running back should be a full-go for the upcoming season. The Colts themselves are in a much better position to help Taylor produce fantasy points this year with new quarterback Anthony Richardson at the helm, and their soft slate of opposing teams should help keep the rock in Taylor’s hands for the entire season.

Let’s all agree to write off last year and focus on the new year. In that new year, Jonathan Taylor has a legitimate shot at reclaiming his title as the RB1 in fantasy football.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.