3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/18/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings Moneyline (-118)

For the second time in a week, the Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings take to the ice for a pivotal Eastern Conference showdown. The Flyers emerged victorious in last Thursday’s encounter, but we see a more pronounced edge in backing the Red Wings at Little Ceasar’s Arena.

Going 6-3-2 since November 23, the Flyers have had a wildly successful run. However, they’ve outlasted their metrics. Philadelphia’s expected goals-for (eGF) rating has inflated to 59.5% over that stretch, a 10-point jump relative to their season-long benchmark of 49.5%. We should start seeing that eGF rating regress, particularly with the Flyers playing eight of their 10 on the road.

Detroit’s offense is showing signs of life over its recent sample. The Red Wings have tallied 11 goals over their last three games, with all but three of those goals coming at five-on-five. With 83 scoring chances and 30 high-danger chances over that stretch, they're poised to continue their offensive assault.

The betting market has installed the Wings as short favorites, but our analysis supports that these odds are too short. Consequently, the most playable advantage is backing Detroit to exact revenge for last week’s defeat.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars

Maple Leafs Moneyline (+108)

The Toronto Maple Leafs embark on a brief two-game road trip on the strength of improving metrics. That improved play gives them an advantage over the Dallas Stars in what will undoubtedly be one of the most entertaining contests of the evening.

After weeks of underachieving, Toronto’s on-ice play has finally reached its usual standard of excellence. The Leafs have posted a cumulative 63.2% expected goals-for rating over their previous three contests, utterly dominating at both ends of the ice. Over that stretch, the Original Six franchise averages a mind-numbing 18.0 high-danger chances per game while recording no fewer than 16 such chances in any contest.

Effective offensive play is complemented by some of the Leafs’ best defensive play of the season. Opponents are averaging just 6.3 high-danger chances per game, with only one of those teams exceeding three opportunities.

At the same time, the Stars’ product is faltering. Dallas has been outplayed in five of its last nine, precipitating diminished output. The two-time Western Conference runners-up have recorded more than one goal at five-on-five just twice over their past seven. Naturally, that correlates with reduced scoring across all strengths, with the Stars totaling two goals in five of those seven outings.

Now leading the Atlantic Division, Toronto is more competitive than this betting line implies.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Utah Hockey Club

Utah Moneyline (-120)

The Utah Hockey Club is making Bob Dylan proud because they are proving that the times are a changing. Now under new ownership and relocated to Salt Lake City, the Hockey Club has adopted a new winning mentality. And the betting market is starting to take notice. Utah enters Wednesday’s showdown against the Vancouver Canucks as home favorites, but the odds do not yet reflect Utah's chances of winning.

The NHL’s newest team has been progressing via their most recent results. Utah is 4-0-1 over its past five, a streak validated by some solid metrics. Across that span, the Hockey Club has out-shot their opponents in all but one contest, with positive Corsi metrics to boot. That possession-driven play gives them an advantage over the Canucks at the Delta Center.

Vancouver’s 16-9-5 record doesn’t indicate its lackluster analytics profile over the past few weeks. The Canucks outplayed their opponents just once over the last seven games, surprisingly yielding a 3-2-2 record. That’s elevated their PDO to 1.055 and put the Canucks at risk of regression ahead of the holiday break.

Utah is the superior analytics team, and it has the added advantage of being able to play at home. This is an ideal spot to back the Hockey Club.

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