4 Best Bets and Predictions for NFL Week 16

We're at the point in the season where we're starting to see divisional rematches.

We've already gotten a glimpse at how these two teams match up. Naturally, we're going to put a lot of weight on that, given -- in most instances -- the personnel and coaching staffs will be the same.

The key is factoring in those openers without over-emphasizing them.

The NFL is a high-variance sport. Even if things play out one way in a single iteration, that in no way means we'll see the same thing in a rematch. One play can swing an entire game, so we want to try to draw only the key takeaways as the rematch comes around.

There are two spots this week where I'm comfortable betting against a repeat of what we saw when two teams first faced each other. We've seen markets react to those initial meetings, and in my mind, they've gone a bit too far.

Let's dig into those first and then lay out other spots where my model's NFL Week 16 spread and total predictions are showing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

Eagles at Commanders

Commanders' Moneyline (+152)

When the Washington Commanders faced the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, the Eagles were 3.5-point favorites with the game in Philly.

Fast forward to Week 16, and even though the game is in Washington, the Eagles are still 3.5-point favorites. This does make sense, given the Eagles haven't lost since then while the Commanders have been less steady, but I'm looking to buy the dip.

That game -- with a 26-18 final in favor of the Eagles -- was back when Jayden Daniels' rib injury was still fresh. He ran only 7 times for 18 yards, and his aDOT was just 3.6 yards. That's his lowest in a full game this year.

Because that was a Thursday game, Daniels had 10 days to rest after -- and has also since had a bye -- and the aggression has gone back up. His 11 rushing attempts last week were his most since Week 5, and his 9.1-yard aDOT was 1.4 yards above his full-season average. It seems like the rib injury is now in the rearview mirror.

Not all concerns are alleviated. Noah Brown is now sidelined, and Zach Ertz seems unlikely to play due to a concussion. Things have gotten thin at pass-catcher, and I've downgraded the Commanders as a result.

I just can't go too far in downgrading them, given the two players missing are a journeyman receiver and a tight end in his age-34 season. Daniels has elevated his pass-catchers all year, and we should have faith he can do it again.

It'll be a tall order for the Commanders to knock off an Eagles team coming off one of its most impressive outings of the season. But I've got the Eagles favored by less than half a point here, allowing me to swing for the fences and bet the Commanders straight up.

Steelers at Ravens

Total Over 44.5 (-112)

Points were scarce in the first meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers won, 18-16, only 34 total points.

That could happen again. This Steelers defense is elite, and they've shown they're effective at limiting mobile quarterbacks. But this is another spot where it feels like the market has moved too much.

The total for that first matchup was 48.5 points. We should downgrade that based on the outcome, and it's possible the Steelers don't have George Pickens again. But is that enough to push the total down 4 points, through a key number of 47, and near another key number in 44?

I, personally, don't think so. That's mostly due to the Ravens' offense. They're second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, featuring the league's most efficient passing offense. It's possible Mike Tomlin is simply a wizard who has found the key to limiting Jackson, but I don't want to make that assumption off a one-game sample, given this offense is objectively better than anything the Ravens have trotted out in recent years.

I'd lose some enthusiasm for the over if Pickens can't go as it lowers the back-and-forth potential, but only two Ravens games have gone under 44.5 points this year, so I'll happily bet on a regression from what we saw in this first matchup.

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Buccaneers -3.5 (-118)

This will be the 12th time this season my model has shown value in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' spread. They're 8-3 in the previous spots, but it looks like they're still underrated by the market.

The reason the model likes the Bucs is the same reason they've beaten expectations this year: their offense is nasty and diverse.

For the full season, the Bucs rank fifth in numberFire's metrics overall, sitting seventh both through the air and on the ground. If you limit one mode of attack, they can simply shift to the other.

Although the Dallas Cowboys are now 3-1 in their past 4 games, they're still numberFire's 27th-ranked offense, and that includes plenty of time when Dak Prescott was still healthy.

Neither defense has played well, and the Bucs will likely be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. once again. They were, though, able to stifle the Los Angeles Chargers without Winfield last week, giving me more faith they can come through for us once again.

Patriots at Bills

Total Over 46.5 (-110)

I do think my model could be too high on this one, putting the total in the 50s. But when we get four quarters of the Buffalo Bills' offense against the New England Patriots' defense, I also think the market is too low.

After their outbursts the past two weeks, the Bills are now numberFire's top-ranked offense. Importantly, they are first on the ground, as well, meaning they can put up points even while trying to chew clock late. That unit will be facing numberFire's 29th-ranked defense.

As for the Patriots' offense, they've at least shown some sort of a spark under Drake Maye. They've scored 15-plus points in each of his starts, and their implied total here is just 16. They don't need to do a ton to push this one over, and with the Bills' defense dealing with key injuries, the Pats should contribute their fair share.

My totals model -- which dates back to Week 15 of 2022 -- has put a total in the 50s on 30 occasions. Those games have featured an average of 51.8 points and -- importantly -- have gone over 46.5 at a rate of 57.6%. With 52.4% implied odds here, there's value in the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.