NFL Week 16 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 16's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

Last updated Sunday morning with most recent wind speed and player availability projections.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Broncos at Chargers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -0.7

Total Prediction: 40.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Showing value in the Denver Broncos' moneyline. The Los Angeles Chargers' offense has struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, making them fully one-dimensional. Thus, I tend to side with the model in thinking the Broncos are undervalued.

Texans at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -3.9

Total Prediction: 44.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I originally had a downgrade in for Patrick Mahomes due to his ankle injury, but now that he is off the injury report, this reflects a fully healthy Mahomes.

Steelers at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -9.8

Total Prediction: 50.6

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Still showing value in the over even with George Pickens officially ruled out.

Browns at Bengals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bengals -10.3

Total Prediction: 46.9

Betting Odds

Cardinals at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -4.7

Total Prediction: 47.0

Betting Odds

Eagles at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -0.2

Total Prediction: 50.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I was on the Washington Commanders in the first matchup, which didn't go well. The market has moved heavily against them here, but I disagree with that move.

Giants at Falcons Prediction

Spread Prediction: Falcons -6.1

Total Prediction: 43.6

Betting Odds

Thoughts: It's very possible that Michael Penix Jr. will be an upgrade over Kirk Cousins; it's just hard to project a rookie quarterback for higher efficiency than where my model has him. Thus, I'm showing value in the New York Giants, even if it's not value I'm super itchy to take.

Titans at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: Colts -4.0

Total Prediction: 39.2

Betting Odds

Lions at Bears Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -9.7

Total Prediction: 49.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've got a pretty big downgrade in for the Detroit Lions' defense but am still above market on them. It's a big number to cover on the road, and these teams did just see each other, so I'm not super enthusiastic despite showing a healthy amount of value.

Rams at Jets Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -1.8

Total Prediction: 45.5

Betting Odds

Vikings at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.2

Total Prediction: 43.4

Betting Odds

Patriots at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -13.3

Total Prediction: 55.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: It's possible my total here is just way off, but I'm willing to take the over for a couple reasons. First, the Buffalo Bills' ground game is good enough to score in any script, meaning they can put up points even with a big lead. Second, Drake Maye is feisty enough to do at least something against a scuffling defense.

49ers at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Dolphins -0.3

Total Prediction: 42.5

Betting Odds

Jaguars at Raiders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Raiders -2.8

Total Prediction: 40.6

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This has oscillated back and forth between having the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders favored. With Aidan O'Connell projected as starter, the Raiders are going to be my preferred side.

Buccaneers at Cowboys Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bucs -7.6

Total Prediction: 48.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This will mark the 12th time I've shown value on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' spread this year. They're 8-3 in the others, so they've been kind to us, and I think there's still value here.

Saints at Packers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -12.0

Total Prediction: 48.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Similar to the Bills, the Green Bay Packers' offense can score in all game states, allowing me to take the over here, even with the New Orleans Saints missing all of their playmakers.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.