In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 16's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

Last updated mid-day Tuesday with most recent wind speed and player availability projections.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Broncos at Chargers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -0.7

Total Prediction: 40.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Showing value in the Denver Broncos' moneyline. The Los Angeles Chargers' offense has struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, making them fully one-dimensional. Thus, I tend to side with the model in thinking the Broncos are undervalued.

Texans at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -0.8

Total Prediction: 40.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Currently projecting Carson Wentz as starting for the Kansas City Chiefs. I'd be willing to bite if we were to get the Chiefs +3, given the Houston Texans' continued struggles and my faith in Andy Reid.

Steelers at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -9.5

Total Prediction: 51.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: These two tend to play in slop fests, so buying into what the model is saying scares me. Currently projecting George Pickens as in, and I'd lose enthusiasm for the over if he were ruled out.

Browns at Bengals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bengals -10.3

Total Prediction: 46.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Dorian Thompson-Robinson will reportedly start, which is a big downgrade for the Cleveland Browns. Still, -7.5 is a much tougher number to cover than -7, so the movement toward the Cincinnati Bengals is significant.

Cardinals at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -4.7

Total Prediction: 46.8

Betting Odds

Eagles at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -0.3

Total Prediction: 49.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I was on the Washington Commanders in the first matchup, which didn't go well. They're now down Noah Brown and likely Zach Ertz, so I have some hesitation in following the model here. Still, I do think the Commanders are a bit undervalued in the market as things stand.

Giants at Falcons Prediction

Spread Prediction: Falcons -8.2

Total Prediction: 45.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I will not touch the over here despite showing value, given how run-centric the Atlanta Falcons -- justifiably -- were on Monday Night Football.

Titans at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: Colts -4.0

Total Prediction: 39.2

Betting Odds

Lions at Bears Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -9.7

Total Prediction: 50.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've got a pretty big downgrade in for the Detroit Lions' defense but am still above market on them. It's a big number to cover on the road, and these teams did just see each other, so I'm not super enthusiastic despite showing a healthy amount of value.

Rams at Jets Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -1.8

Total Prediction: 45.2

Betting Odds

Vikings at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.2

Total Prediction: 43.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Currently projecting Geno Smith as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks.

Patriots at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -13.3

Total Prediction: 54.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: It's possible my total here is just way off, but I'm willing to take the over for a couple reasons. First, the Buffalo Bills' ground game is good enough to score in any script, meaning they can put up points even with a big lead. Second, Drake Maye is feisty enough to do at least something against a scuffling defense.

49ers at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Dolphins -0.5

Total Prediction: 42.7

Betting Odds

Jaguars at Raiders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Raiders -2.8

Total Prediction: 40.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: We're making Mac Jones a road favorite in 2024? All righty.

It sounds like there's a shot that Aidan O'Connell plays, and we've seen the offense show at least some life with him. Even with a big downgrade for Maxx Crosby, I think the Las Vegas Raiders should be favored in a game that management would likely prefer they lose.

Buccaneers at Cowboys Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bucs -7.7

Total Prediction: 48.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This will mark the 12th time I've shown value on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' spread this year. They're 8-3 in the others, so they've been kind to us, and I think there's still value here.

Saints at Packers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -11.7

Total Prediction: 47.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Similar to the Bills, the Green Bay Packers' offense can score in all game states, allowing me to take the over here. It doesn't hurt there's at least an outside chance Derek Carr plays, though I'm currently projecting him as out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.