Fantasy Football: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Has Breakout Potential This Season

First-round rookie wide receivers are often a hot topic for fantasy football. They regularly end up in favorable spots where there will be no shortage of targets. This year's prime examples are Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba fell into this category for the 2023 season. While Smith-Njigba ended up in a pass-happy offense with the Seattle Seahawks, there weren't as many targets to go around thanks to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

This didn't stop fantasy managers from hopping on the hype train, though, but JSN failed to provide good value, finishing as WR48 a year ago, compared to his WR39 average draft position (ADP), per FantasyPros' half-PPR ADP data.

Will it be more of the same for Smith-Njigba in 2024, or is he poised to break out? Utilizing FantasyPros' ADP and numberFire's fantasy football projections, let's jump into the numbers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Football Outlook

Working Down Field Was a Rarity

What went wrong during JSN's rookie year? The bottom line is Smith-Njigba wasn't used as much as his counterparts. The rookie logged 63 receptions and 93 targets compared to Metcalf's 66 catches and 119 targets and Lockett's 79 receptions and 122 targets.

To make matters worse, Smith-Njigba had the fewest yards per catch (10.0) among the three wideouts. His average depth of target (aDOT) was a measly 6.2 versus Metcalf's 13.7 and Lockett's 11.5.

There was some expectation that JSN would have a short-target role while Metcalf and Lockett worked more down the field. But to this degree? His aDOT was less than top tight ends Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson. In all, JSN was among the bottom 10 in aDOT.

It's not like he's an incapable deep threat, either. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Smith-Njigba was in the 99th percentile among college players since 2019 in separation rate on throws of 10-plus yards while also finishing in the 96th percentile for career yards per route run during his collegiate days.

The first-round talent is still brewing in JSN. His WR44 ADP is extremely intriguing thanks to the ceiling in a pass-heavy attack.

Grubb Holds the Keys to Unlocking JSN

This is where we get into unlocking Smith-Njigba's potential. He's consistently appearing on breakout lists all over the place.

First off, we can look at his fellow receivers. Metcalf has seen his stats drop since his sole All-Pro season in 2020. He carried a career-high 16.9 yards per reception last season, but his 119 targets were his lowest since 2019's rookie season.

The big focus here is Lockett. He's entering his seventh season; Father Time is eventually going to catch up.

Most importantly, Lockett had only 894 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023 -- both his lowest marks since 2017. Lockett also recorded a career-low 11.3 receiving yards per reception. According to Brandon Gdula's expected FanDuel points (FDP) model, his -1.2 expected FDP per game vs. FDP per game was the lowest mark among the trio of wideouts.

Previous research at numberFire has highlighted age an important factor in identifying breakout receivers. JSN is entering his second season at 22 years old, and Lockett is on the verge of turning 32. Smith-Njigba rising while Lockett declines is a real possibility.

Perhaps the most important factor is Seattle's new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. He's one of the promising additions to coach Mike Macdonald's staff.

With the University of Washington in 2023, Grubb guided one of college football's most dangerous passing attacks, one that featured three exceptional receivers: Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. Grubb's unit used a heavy dose of 11 personnel -- one running back, one tight end, and three receivers -- while the Huskies had a 61.5% pass-play rate.

The Seahawks were around the middle of league in 11-personnel usage last season, making it tough for their WR3 to see a ton of looks. Grubb also looks to push the ball down the field as Washington was in the 90th percentile of FBS in yards per passing attempt.

Grubb is a great fit for this offense, potentially playing a big role in unlocking JSN.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire projects Smith-Njigba to finish close to his ADP, ranking him as the 43rd-best fantasy receiver for 2024. His projected numbers sit at 73 receptions, 796 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns.

While these would all be improvements over JSN's numbers from a year ago, this is still only 10.9 yards per catch compared to 10.0 last season. I have a hard time seeing the Seahawks making the same mistake this year as they did in 2023.

JSN was simply misused during his rookie season. There's no other way to slice it. Yes, he can excel as a intermediate wideout, but deciding to completely disregard his ability as a deep threat seems foolish.

During his breakout campaign with Ohio State in 2021, he had the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards on passes with 10-plus air yards.

Last year, Smith-Njigba had only 24 targets on passes with 10-plus air yards compared to Metcalf's 62 and Lockett's 51. JSN finished with the 11th-lowest average route depth (9.8 yards) among receivers.

Grubb loved to push the ball down the field at Washington, and he has all of the tools to keep doing it in Seattle.

Even with Geno Smith's passing yards dropping by more than 600 yards while totaling 10 fewer passing TDs, he still had the eighth-best expected points added (EPA) on deep shots in 2023, per PFF. He was also top five in the category for 2022.

The head-scratching decisions surrounding JSN's usage during his rookie year stood out like an aggravating weed. Grubb seems like an awesome fit for the Seahawks, and there will likely be a focus on using Smith-Njigba the right way.

Lockett's potential decline is even more reason to buy Smith-Njigba stock now. JSN's WR44 ADP is an intriguing value considering his situation, and he is a quality target for season-long fantasy leagues as a Year-2 jump could be imminent.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.