UFC Kansas City Best Bets and Predictions: Machado Garry vs. Prates

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates, taking place at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates Betting Picks

Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda

Gutierrez by KO/TKO (+700)

I'm glad UFC ran back this canceled matchup from UFC 313 two months ago.

Bantamweight veterans Chris Gutierrez and John Castaneda collide in what could be a battle of striking versus wrestling. At the very least, Castaneda will need it to be.

"El Guapo" Gutierrez has ran circles around several foes with a sparkling +2.08 striking success rate (SSR) built on a leg-kick-heavy attack that's merited excellent striking accuracy (59%) and defense (64%). He's a tough puzzle, topping top-five contender Song Yadong with +38 distance striking differential in their 2023 matchup.

Castaneda's -0.55 SSR, clearly, can't keep up. He'll have to lean on 5.11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, but Gutierrez's serviceable takedown D (71%) combined with his own pedestrian efficiency (35% land rate) make that tough to forecast.

I've got Gutierrez modeled 59.8% likely to win this fight, so if you missed the early moneyline, I'd stick to darts at his (T)KO prop. I think it's a bit undervalued when I've modeled it at 17.6%.

Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick

Under 1.5 Rounds (-118)
Flick Wins in Round 1 or 2 (+260)

Jimmy Flick survived a battering to see the distance for the first time in his UFC career in his last fight. I wouldn't count on an encore.

Flick is a kill-or-be-killed submission specialist who averages the most submission attempts per 15 minutes in flyweight history given five-plus octagon appearances (4.3). The problem? He's also a punching bag at distance, per a -3.49 SSR and awful 43% striking D.

Matt Schnell has been finished in four of his last five fights, including two taps to submissions. While you'd favor "Danger" at distance over "The Brick" Flick, his 50% takedown D hasn't done a great job of keeping fights on his terms.

I wasn't overly surprised by my model's verdict -- unnerving as it may be. I've got this one 68.4% likely to end early. It's via a patented Flick submission 40.8% of the time, which is probably the underdog's only logical path to an upset. His knockout prop is priced so low that it's worth including in case Schnell's chin is completely shot.

Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov

Pereira to Win (-148)

I'd argue these technical middleweights should be Saturday's co-main event. Michel Pereira did just headline a show, after all.

"Demolidor" spent a torturous 22:22 in the octagon with top-five middleweight Anthony Hernandez, ceding a 185-pound record for significant strikes (152) and 10 takedowns. The referee eventually showed mercy. That was too much too soon for Pereira after a 3-0 start in this weight class, and five-round fights will never favor his explosive style.

Overall, he still has a +0.23 SSR after such a lopsided affair compared to Abus Magomedov's -0.70 SSR. Germany's Magomedov has shown more wrestling upside (3.12 takedowns landed per 15) in recent fights, so it'll be interesting to see with how much success he has opposite Pereira's 76% takedown D.

With only three rounds on deck, Pereira goes from a massive endurance deficit to a surplus opposite Magomedov.

I've got him 59.9% likely to win, and even though all three of his middleweight wins came in the first two minutes, stick to the moneyline. I've actually got this one favored to go the distance 54.9% of the time.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

Machado Garry in Round 4, 5, or by Decision (+175)

This is the first time the UFC appears to have given Carlos Prates the right fight.

Prates has viciously KO'd four straight aging opponents with a combined 13-15 record since the start of 2021. If you're on your way out at 170 pounds, you probably drew Carlos Prates in the last 18 months. The Fighting Nerds' welterweight entry has won over fans quickly with a gigantic 5.37% knockdown rate (KD%), entertaining Muay Thai style, and tendency to let loose out of the cage.

"The Nightmare" goes from prospect to contender with a win over Ian Machado Garry, who fell just short of doing that same thing in his last fight. He lost a tight decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov (7-0 UFC) despite a +5 striking differential.

To this point, Prates has shown no grappling offense, yet Machado Garry used two takedowns to secure a win over English striker Michael Page (2-1 UFC) last year. It's something else in his pocket when Garry's +1.90 SSR -- against tougher competition -- already smokes Prates' -0.21 mark. Remember, the latter was behind at distance against Trevin Giles (7-7 UFC) before a second-round haymaker.

Though the Irishman lacks power (0.69% KD), I don't want to just bet Garry's decision prop (+260) despite modeling it at 39.5%. I'd rather hedge with a late finish in case Prates' training habits end up getting the best of his endurance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.