Fantasy Football: 5 Breakout Wide Receivers for 2024

Breakout players can often be difference makers in fantasy football. There's no better feeling than striking on a player who produces far above their average draft position (ADP).

The trick is finding those breakouts, which is clearly easier said than done. Thanks to previous research done at numberFire, we have some sound guidance for finding breakout wide receivers.

This includes finding wideouts on depth charts where there is no clear top target or circling receivers who are still early in their careers -- preferably within their first seven years of entering the league. Additionally, some of this simply comes down to good old-fashioned targets.

Puka Nacua was one of last season's big breakouts, finishing as the WR4 with 246 fantasy points after carrying a WR91 average draft position (ADP) at FantasyPros. Nico Collins was another. Based on Brandon Gdula's expected FanDuel Points model, Collins finished with the most FanDuel points per game (FDP) above expectation at 3.8, leading to a WR9 finish versus a WR58 ADP.

Finding this kind of success is pure gold. Can we find more in 2024? While utilizing ADP, let's talk about five receivers who could break out in the upcoming season.

Fantasy Football Breakout Receivers

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

ADP: WR34 (63rd overall)

Jayden Reed was already a breakout receiver in 2023, earning WR23 compared to his WR71 ADP. Can we really expect Reed to take it up another notch while carrying a WR34 ADP?

The potential is still there for Reed to finish pretty far above his ADP. His numbers late last season provide plenty of comfort.

He was the definition of consistency from Week 10 on, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game over his final eight outings. He was over his expected FanDuel points in seven of those eight games.

A big factor in this was Jordan Love playing like one of football's brightest stars, carrying 0.23 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB) from Week 10 on -- which was the top mark among qualifying players, narrowly ahead of Brock Purdy's 0.21 EPA/DB.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds, Love is entering the season tied for the fifth-shortest odds to win the MVP award (+1400). Having this caliber of a quarterback helps Reed's case, and the Green Bay Packers lacking a clear alpha dog in the receiving unit only adds fuel to the fire.

Starting in Week 10 last season, Reed also led the Packers with an 18.3% target share. Love hit his stride and seemed to find a new favorite target.

Christian Watson will likely be Reed's biggest threat for targets as Watson led the team with a 17.9% weighted target share over the final 11 games in 2023. However, Watson has consistently battled injuries over his first two years while Reed participated in 16 games last season.

numberFire's fantasy football projections have Reed at WR37 with about 69 receptions, 850 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. Reed posted 64 receptions, 793 yards, and 8 touchdowns in his rookie year.

Considering the increased production late in 2023, Reed has the makeup to breakout in his second season -- especially in an unclear receiving core with an emerging QB. After a quality rookie year, Reed could break out even more in 2024.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: WR44 (91st overall)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of the most disappointing rookie seasons in 2023. He entered his first year with Offensive Rookie of the Year hype while carrying WR39 ADP, yet JSN finished as WR48 while touting only one top-20 weekly finish at the position.

Targets are the clear number-one problem for Smith-Njigba. The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of mouths to feed between JSN, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf and Lockett were the top targets in 2023, totaling 119 and 122 targets, respectively.

Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba tallied 93 targets while averaging the lowest yards per catch (10.0) among the three receivers. What will it take for JSN to actually break out in 2024?

First off, he checks the box for being within his first seven seasons. Lockett just totaled his lowest receiving total since 2017 last year and is entering his 10th season. Regression from the vet wideout could be Smith-Njigba's biggest supporting point.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among wideout prospects since 2019, JSN was in the 99th percentile in separation rate on throws of at least 10 yards downfield as a prospect with Ohio State. Yet, Smith-Njigba had a very underwhelming average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.4 yards during his rookie year. With a new coaching staff present, Smith-Njigba's potential down the field could be unlocked.

The former Buckeye's WR44 ADP is pretty much on par with last season's WR48 finish. The upside on a Smith-Njigba breakout is worth a swing.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

ADP: WR54 (121st overall)

Of course, we have to address the Buffalo Bills' receiving core. Stefon Diggs is out, meaning the WR1 spot is up for grabs in Buffalo.

The Bills' projected starting receivers are Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel. All three wideouts are carrying similar ADPs; Coleman leads the way at WR47, followed by Samuel at WR51 and Shakir holding WR54.

Coleman is a rookie carrying big expectations after being selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Samuel is difficult to trust as he's gone for more than 800 receiving yards only once during his seven-year career.

While Coleman is an intriguing option with promising potential, Shakir has more data we can trust.

Shakir is still young at 24, entering his third season. He emerged in Week 8 in 2023 with 6 catches for 92 yards. From that week on, Shakir carried a target share and weighted target share of more than 12.0%. His 86.7% catch rate (reeled in 39 of 45 targets) also generates some confidence.

Simply put, someone has to catch Josh Allen's passes. Allen finished as QB1 in fantasy football in 2023 while the Bills were in the top half of passing attempts per game. Shakir showed promise late in the 2023 season, and with a new look receiving corps that frankly looks underwhelming, Shakir looks to be in the best spot to surpass his WR54 ADP among the Bills' receivers.

Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints

ADP: WR57 (132nd overall)

Chris Olave will likely be on plenty of fantasy radars for 2024, but don't sleep on his running mate, Rashid Shaheed.

Shaheed has been a major success story through his first two seasons, earning First Team All-Pro honors in 2023 as a punt returner. He also carried a career-high 75 targets and 719 receiving yards.

After averaging the 10th-most passing attempts per game last year, the New Orleans Saints will likely have plenty of targets to spread around once again. Michael Thomas is no longer part of the equation, creating a clear path for Shaheed to break out.

In 2023, he finished with the fourth-highest weighted target share on the team (15.0%). When Thomas was absent over the final seven games of the season, Shaheed moved to the third-highest weighted target share.

PFF gave Shaheed a 99.9 deep receiving grade last year. Thomas ate up 64 targets in 10 games last season. Shaheed is expected to step into a bigger role, and that should allow his game-breaking speed to shine.

Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants

ADP: WR73 (176th overall)

Here's where we get really deep into fantasy drafts. There isn't much value to had once you keep climbing past the 100th pick in your draft. Most of the time, any skill position player selected this late is simply a shot in the dark.

Holding a WR74 ADP, Wan'Dale Robinson actually has some potential late in the draft.

The New York Giants have sorely missed a reliable receiver for years. They spent the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Malik Nabers. While Nabers will grab most of the attention (WR24 ADP), Robinson could be the Giants' receiver with the most fantasy value.

He primarily played in the slot last year, but Dan Duggan of The Athletic reported Robinson was put in the backfield and out wide during OTAs. Being used as a Swiss army knife does nothing but add to his fantasy value, especially with the potential for increased touches thanks to some rushing attempts.

Robinson already posted impressive stats in 2023, as well, as he was one of five receivers to finish in the 60th percentile in all of yards after the catch (YAC) per reception, contested catch rate, and separation rate -- per PFF. The third-year receiver also led the Giants by getting open on 94.74% of his targets.

After returning from injury in Week 3 last season, Robinson finished second on New York in target share (18.6%), trailing only Darren Waller (20.7%). Of course, Waller announced his retirement this offseason -- yet another domino suggesting a Robinson breakout.

Best of all, Robinson doesn't require much of an investment at his WR73 ADP. Thanks to his advanced stats and target share from 2023, Robinson looks in position to easily vault past his ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.