Fantasy Football: Is Trey McBride Locked Into the Elite Tier of Tight Ends?

After totaling only 265 receiving yards in his 2022 rookie season, Trey McBride was one of the only bright spots as a breakout player in a deflating 4-13 season for the Arizona Cardinals in 2023.

McBride would finish as TE9 in fantasy football while producing the ninth-most fantasy points per game at his position. With Kyler Murray expected to be fully healthy in the upcoming season, McBride's average draft position (ADP) at FantasyPros has spiked to TE4 in half-PPR leagues compared to TE33 in last year's draft.

What are McBride's chances of continuing his production from last season? He won't be able to deliver the same kind of fantasy value as a widely undrafted player like last year, but can McBride still deliver on his ADP in 2024? Here's the fantasy football outlook for the Cardinals tight end.

Trey McBride Fantasy Football Outlook

Starting Role Leads to Stardom

We didn't get much value from McBride last season before he became the full-time starter from Week 8 on following Zach Ertz's injury.

Over the first seven games of the season, he averaged only 3.50 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues paired with only one top-15 weekly finishes at his position. As a starter, his numbers immediately shot up to 11.65 fantasy points per game over the final 10 games of the season.

His workload went through the roof as a starter at 8.5 targets per contest versus 3.0 over his first seven games. Quickly building a connection with Murray, who returned from injury in Week 10, also helped McBride's case. The Cardinals averaged 33.5 passing attempts per game with Murray under center compared to 31.9 over the first nine games without him.

McBride would led the team in receptions (81), receiving yards (825), and finish second in target share (19.7%). However, this target share takes into account when he was a backup. Once again, his numbers sky rocketed when McBride became a starter, carrying a team-best 26.7% target share starting with Week 8. For reference, the second-highest mark on Arizona was 18.6% during this span.

Since becoming the starter in Week 8, McBride showed his high floor, grabbing a top-15 weekly finish in 8 of 10 contests. Plus, he produced five top-five weekly finishes during the span, as well.

It's hard to not be excited about McBride considering his numbers since becoming a starter. Will Arizona continue to heavily leaning on its tight end in 2024?

Fewer Targets Traded For More Touchdowns?

McBride's usage as a starter last season was about as good as it gets. In fact, his 26.1% target rate topped his position, per PlayerProfiler.

We haven't addressed a major piece of this puzzle, though. McBride had very little competition for targets last season, if any at all. Marquise Brown was the only receiver that surpassed 500 receiving yards, and he lacked efficiency with -15.1 receiving yards over expectation per game (RecYOE) in 2023, via NFL's Next Gen Stats.

The Cardinals used their top draft pick -- the fourth overall selection -- on Marvin Harrison Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft. Harrison holds the third-shortest odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+750); chances are he's going to take plenty of work.

We took time to focus on Harrison's fantasy stock, concluding he should have more than enough targets to deliver on his WR9 ADP. FanDuel Research's season-long projections have Harrison averaging 8.8 targets per game. McBride's best competition from Week 8 on last season was Brown at 5.9 targets per contest. Adding a potential top-10 fantasy target will surely harm McBride's chance of shining.

In the absolute worst case, McBride should still get the second-most targets on the team. Michael Wilson is the only other receiver holding any kind of threat, and he logged only 565 receiving yards and 58 targets a season ago.

While there's a good chance that McBride falls back to being the No. 2 target, one could argue that Arizona's tight end will uphold his fantasy value due to positive touchdown regression.

Despite his hefty target share, McBride managed to score only three touchdowns in his second season. This was with a team-best 27.8% red zone target share once he became the starting tight end, as well.

The Cardinals scored the ninth-fewest points per game (PPG) in the NFL last season. There should be more opportunities for scoring with Murray healthy. We saw Arizona's quarterback slowly get back to himself in the second half of the 2023 season, for he carried -0.24 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) over his first four games back from injury compared to 0.06 over the final five contests of the season.

Additionally, numberFire has Arizona's offense rated as the 13th-best schedule-adjusted unit ahead of the 2024 season. Improved quarterback play and an increase in scoring should mean more touchdowns for McBride.

Ultimately, the threat of Harrison could pretty much offset with McBride's potential to find the end zone more often. His fantasy value is still as clear as day.

Trey McBride Fantasy Football Projection

Similar to our findings, FanDuel Research's season-long projections are expecting a drop in McBride's target share paired with more scoring opportunities. He's holding projections of 8.2 targets, 5.9 receptions, 61.1 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game.

These numbers assume McBride participates in all 17 games, giving him about 140 targets, 100 catches, 1,038 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns for the season. Wait, didn't we say his workload would drop?

Compared to his averages as a starter in 2023, this is still a decline. He totaled 8.5 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 65.5 receiving yards per game over the 10-game sample size. It's unlikely this kind of production continues with Harrison in the fold.

Still, these projections aren't that far behind 2023's level. Then add in some positive touchdown regression and we're cooking. McBride's forecasted 0.4 touchdowns per game are a decent increase over 0.3 as a starter last season.

Projections have McBride finishing as TE3, delivering on his top-three positional potential. Keep in mind he managed to finish at TE9 last season while being a backup for seven games. Sure, Harrison will take some work, but McBride should still have a heavy workload paired with positive touchdown regression in an offense that's expected to improve.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.