Fantasy Football: Why Marvin Harrison Jr. Is Worth an Early Pick

Rookie wide receivers are all the rage in fantasy football these days. In three of the last four seasons, a rookie wideout has finished among the top-five fantasy players at their position.

Logic says that Marvin Harrison Jr. has possibly the best shot among rookie receivers to keep this trend going. He was the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and was consistently labeled a "generational talent" throughout the process.

According to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP), Harrison is the 10th wideout off of fantasy boards. That's some high expectations for a fresh face in the league.

Could Harrison's ADP be too boisterous for his first season in the NFL?

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Football Outlook

Similar Setting to Past Rookie Success

Looking at recent rookie success could lay the blueprint for Harrison's chances of living up to his low ADP.

Puka Nacua, who was WR4 last year, is the odd man out in this comparison. As a fifth-round pick in 2023 paired with a WR91 ADP, this was something few saw coming. He was aided by Cooper Kupp missing the first four games of the season, giving Nacua the stage to shine.

Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are more similar examples to Harrison's situation. Chase was the fifth pick in 2021 and finished as WR5, and Jefferson was a first-rounder while producing a WR6 finish in 2020. Each player also had much lower ADPs than Nacua (Chase WR28 ADP; Jefferson WR51 ADP).

Both receivers had good QB play as Joe Burrow was QB8 in 2021 while Kirk Cousins was QB11 in 2020. Harrison has this potential, for Kyler Murray posted the ninth-most fantasy points per game among QBs last year. We've also seen Murray have exceptional fantasy seasons, mainly his three top-10 finishes from 2019 to 2021.

Chase led the Cincinnati Bengals in targets (128) during his electric rookie year, and Jefferson did the same, touting a team-best 125 targets. Once again, Harrison is checking the box as he is the only Cards receiver within the first 50 receivers off of the board, per FantasyPros' ADP.

Nacua, Chase, and Jefferson have three of the top four most receiving yards in a rookie season. Putting Harrison in the same breath is a huge statement, but that's the kind of production his ADP is suggesting.

Is there an opportunity for Harrison to approach all-time rookie numbers in Arizona?

Workload, QB Play Check the Boxes

Most importantly, there shouldn't be a shortage of work available for Harrison. The Cardinals' receiving group is the definition of bare bones.

Marquise Brown, who led Arizona's wide receivers with 101 targets in 2023, is no longer on the team. The only notable holdover of this group is Michael Wilson, who posted 565 receiving yards while finishing as WR60 in 2023. Zay Jones also joined the team in free agency; he's reached 600 yards only once over the last five seasons.

Harrison's biggest competition for targets figures to be Trey McBride -- TE3 on draft boards. He led the team with 81 receptions, 106 targets, and 825 receiving yards in 2023. numberFire's model projects McBride as the third-best tight end for 2024 with 100 receptions and 139 targets.

Assuming McBridge gets his, Harrison is still in an excellent spot. Arizona attempted the ninth-fewest passing attempts per game last year. They totaled 31.9 attempts on a per-game basis in nine games without Murray in the lineup, increasing to 33.5 when he was active over the final eight contests.

Prior to 2023, Murray played in at least 11 games over his first four seasons. He never averaged fewer than 33.8 passing attempts per contest during that span. This mark would have finished around the middle of the league in 2023. With that said, the Cardinals will likely throw the ball more often in the upcoming season -- especially with Murray at full health.

When Murray last had a true No. 1 receiver for an entire season (DeAndre Hopkins), he finished as QB2 while Hopkins was WR5 in 2020. This could be the perfect model for Harrison to unlock his fantasy potential.

Murray is projecting to be QB9 in 2024, per numberFire. As previously mentioned, Chase and Jefferson had quality QB play during their exceptional rookie seasons. This is checking out for Harrison's chances of surpassing his ADP.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Football Projection

Harrison is currently ranked as the 10th-best wideout for fantasy football by numberFire. His projected stat line is 97 receptions, 150 targets, 1,231 receiving yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns. This would tie Billy Howton's mark of the eighth-most receiving yards in a rookie season.

Arizona's rookie wideout better be ready for pressure because sky-high expectations are looming everywhere you look. It's with good reason; you're putting an elite talent in a prime opportunity to eat up targets on an offense with a quality QB.

The projections are putting Harrison right in line with his WR10 ADP. As we've suggested for this entire piece, Harrison truly has the potential to be the next stud rookie WR in the NFL. He has several similarities to Chase and Jefferson's electric rookie seasons in fantasy football. The good news just keeps going.

McBride -- who is Harrison's biggest competition for targets -- had a 6.0 average depth of target (aDOT) last season. This should give Harrison the bulk of the downfield shots.

According to PFF, Murray had an impressive deep accuracy rate of 41.3% in 2023. Meanwhile, Harrison carried aDOTs of over 13.0 in his two final collegiate seasons and ranked in the 85th percentile in yards per route run on deep routes.

He was also a touchdown machine in college, receiving 14 tuddies in 2022 and 2023. McBride totaled only three touchdowns last year with an 18.3% red zone target share (third-highest on the team).

On top of a heavy workload looking likely, Harrison is also looking really good when it comes to deep shots and scoring TDs.

Taking any rookie receiver early in drafts comes with risk. However, the numbers are checking out for Harrison. Will he produce one of the best rookie seasons ever, similar to Chase and Jefferson? I won't make a statement that bold.

Still, Harrison's projections are in line with his ADP. His situation across the board suggests he has the potential to go over his draft position, from receiving a lot of targets to having a solid QB.

Harrison's fantasy football value is not being overblown. He's in a great situation and still has the potential to boom, even with his WR10 ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.