Every season in fantasy football, there's a first-round pick that no one is going bananas to make.

With Christian McCaffrey routinely finding himself as the RB1, Justin Jefferson poised to smash the record for 100-yard games in his first five campaigns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown a target hog for the fan-favorite Detroit Lions, there is a name floating in the middle of the first round that we've all accepted should be there via talent, but few are pounding the the table for him with the dubious term "league-winner".

Right here, we're pounding a table for Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. Certain changes to Chase's situation with the Bengals could produce the best overall season yet for the fourth-year wideout from LSU.

He's not sneaking up on anyone with a 6.5 average draft position (ADP) in FanDuel's best-ball leagues, but does Chase have the upside to be the best overall player in fantasy football from that first-round spot? How does his situation compare to those being drafted around him? What are his paths to failure?

Let's deep dive the 2024 outlook for "Uno" in fantasy football.

Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Football Outlook

Consecutive Letdowns

Ja'Marr Chase has held a first-round ADP as a top-three wide receiver selection since his breakout rookie campaign with the Bengals. An immediate connection with quarterback and former LSU Tigers teammate Joe Burrow led to a WR5 finish in 2021 at 264.5 total half-PPR fantasy points, and Chase notably won just about any manager of his a championship with a 50.1-fantasy-point effort in Week 16 against the Kansas City Chiefs. That was his fourth different game over 125 scrimmage yards that season, appearing to share his former college teammate Justin Jefferson's insane yardage upside.

We just haven't quite seen that sort of performance recently.

In 2022, Chase missed five games due to a hip injury despite a WR6 finish on a points-per-game basis in half-PPR formats (15.3). At the very least, he did return the final four weeks of the season and didn't crush you, posting at least 9.9 fantasy points in each outing.

In 2023, an even worse injury occurred -- but not to the wideout. Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 12, which left Chase to pick up scraps in an inefficient, Jake Browning-led offense. He topped 10.5 fantasy points just once in these seven games, missing Week 16 altogether to seal the fate of most of his managers.

Injury is always a possibility, but it's important to step back and look at the greater picture before selecting him in the first round in 2024. His floor is extremely high, having shown to post a WR13 season or better on a per-game basis in all three seasons as a pro -- even in one without Burrow for nearly half of the games.

If Chase is healthy, he'll almost certainly be productive, and that's not even factoring in what should be a superior role to produce fantasy points.

Just Me and Tee

Personally, I've always been inclined to fade Chase at higher ADPs because teammate Tee Higgins has proven to have the same regularity for spike weeks at a much lower opportunity cost. Higgins has 11 games with at least 110 receiving yards since Chase was drafted in 2021.

Plus, this has always been an offense that has worked in Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and whatever the flavor of the month at tight end was. With those two now departing this offseason, Chase and Higgins are the two lone established targets in an NFL landscape where they're just not cannibalizing themselves compared to alternatives like they were in 2021.

Tyreek Hill has to deal with Jaylen Waddle. A.J. Brown has to fend off DeVonta Smith for looks. Jefferson now even has Jordan Addison in the mix, and all three of these first-round wideouts have even more "other" competition for targets at tight end and running back than Chase and Higgins. They're both primed to see more work in 2024.

That's a daunting prospect when looking at Chase's 2023 role already. He was 13th in the league in target share (26.3%) at 9.1 looks per game while running 92.1% of the Bengals' routes. Only four wideouts above him didn't either (a) change teams, (b) add a free agent wideout with a 2023 target share above 20.0%, or (c) add a pass-catcher in the first three rounds of the draft.

These are high-value looks, too. Ja'Marr saw 3.7 downfield plus red zone targets last season, and more work near the goal line could be on the way. Mixon is vacating 4.3 red zone opportunities per game to the relatively unproven tandem of Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Boyd also drew 0.5 red zone looks per contest.

While the team did add Mike Gesicki, the end result here looks like an even better situation for one of the league's most talented wide receivers. Having yet to finish outside the top 15 in fantasy points per game, we could finally see that 2021 ceiling yet again.

Better Business Burrow

A sneaky factor to Chase's 2023 "letdown", which is relevant, was the effectiveness of his signal-caller. While Joe Burrow had posted two straight trips to at least the AFC Championship game behind elite efficiency, Burrow just didn't have his best stuff last season.

Before the injury, Burrow posted -0.06 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), according NFL's NextGenStats. Of those who saw at least five games of action, he trailed Geno Smith (0.01), Taylor Heinicke (0.00), and Tyrod Taylor (-0.05) in this category. His 6.5 average depth of target (aDOT) was also the lowest of his career.

A continuation of this trend would be a huge selling point against Chase. An inefficient quarterback leading this tandem of wideouts puts him closer to D.K. Metcalf's fine -- but not great -- situation with Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Yet, there are reasons to believe better will come.

Despite Burrow's play, the Bengals were still numberFire's third-ranked schedule-adjusted passing offense last season. Zac Taylor and this operation's weapons, including Chase, raised the floor of its performance. Now, the departures of Boyd and Mixon will definitely hurt, but the key pieces are still here.

It's also straightforward to expect a rebound for Burrow when he posted 0.05 and 0.12 EPA/db, respectively, in 2021 and 2022. Oddly enough, this will be Joe Cool's first NFL preseason as it stands now (knocking on wood) where he's healthy enough to complete all activities. A calf injury took out most of 2023's training camp, and an appendectomy took him out in 2022. The NFL season feels long, but having an extra month of dedicated practice can only help matters.

Up until he showed up to camp impersonating Cody Rhodes, we had several reasons to believe this could be one of Burrow's best seasons in Year 6. We'll have to forgive the haircut and press forward.

Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's fantasy football projections notably take a stand from consensus at several spots in their top-10 wide receivers, and this is one of them.

nF has Ja'Marr Chase ranked as this season's projected WR3. On the implication of a healthy, 17-game seasons for all players, the projections expect 115.1 catches on 171.4 targets, 1383.1 receiving yards, and a position-best 11.3 receiving touchdowns for the Bengals' star wideout. That all culminates in 208.1 projected half-PPR fantasy points.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the unenviable job of baking injury into their lines, and their receiving props show Chase at +1000 odds (fifth-shortest) to lead the NFL in receiving yards. His yardage prop is set 1,200.5 yards as a pick 'em, and his receiving TD line is set at 9.5 scores with -182 odds toward the under.

Though Chase may or may not lead the league in receiving touchdowns, you have to like the prospect of double-digit scores given numberFire's projection -- and his projected increase in red zone usage with Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd now out of the picture in Cincinnati. He caught 11 touchdowns in the last season (2021) where he and Joe Burrow both played at least 13 games, which can directly be attributed to his decline in scores.

If Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are off the board to eliminate a "Hero RB" strategy in the draft, I'm targeting Chase above CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in drafts. All were on the favorable end of touchdown outcomes a year ago, per Pro Football Focus' expected fantasy points, but Chase wasn't. He underperformed 8.0 expected touchdowns (xTDs) with only seven scores. Justin Jefferson's ambiguous QB situation is less appealing than an established signal-caller like Chase's, as well.

Chase has become a staple in fantasy football's first round because of his talent. Many aren't over the moon about him like some of those alternatives, but a projected increase in work from arguably the best quarterback throwing to any of them is a tremendous proposition in its own right.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.