Fantasy Football: How Should You Approach an Injury-Prone Kyren Williams?

Injuries are quick to derail a player's season, and Kyren Williams has been no exception to the trend.

In his rookie season with the Los Angeles Rams, Williams was held out of training camp and preseason play due to a broken foot. He subsequently sustained a high ankle sprain during the first kick return of Week 1, delaying his proper professional debut to Week 10.

The ailment bug struck again in his sophomore year, as an ankle injury limited Williams to just 12 games in the regular season. He went on to suffer a broken hand in L.A.'s Wild Card game loss to the Detroit Lions.

Even still, Williams made a massive mark when active last season and could look to make an even bigger jump this year.

Should fantasy football managers be giddy to claim the player who averaged the second-most fantasy points in half-PPR scoring at RB last season, or does the injury-prone back carry too much risk at his price?

Utilizing numberFire's fantasy football projections and FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, let's check out Williams' outlook for the upcoming season.

Kyren Williams Fantasy Football Outlook

Williams' 2023 Recap

Despite suiting up for just 12 games, Williams finished the 2023-2024 regular season as RB6. That's a pretty glowing appraisal of his volume and efficiency.

In total, Williams rushed for 1,144 yards (third-most in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns (tied for seventh-most at RB) and logged 206 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air.

He led the league with 95.3 yards per game and averaged 5.0 yards per attempt (fifth-most at RB; minimum 100 carries).

Williams also notched 9.7 rushing yards over expectation, the fourth-most at the position. In turn, we shouldn't have too many doubts regarding how Williams will fare on the field. The Rams have solidified their run game, paving a path for Williams to up the ante this go-around.

Currently, Williams is being taken in fantasy drafts as RB7 at pick 16. His status as last season's RB2 on a fantasy points per game (half-PPR scoring) basis shows an ultra-high ceiling for a theoretically healthy season.

Let's check out how the Rams and Williams look heading into the season, weighing the on-field positives with some more glaring negatives.

A New Workload

Last season, the Rams' backfield was thrown into disarray in the absence of Williams. Los Angeles has since made provisions, selecting Blake Corum with the 83rd overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Corum was the third running back to be taken off the board in the 2024 Draft. The former Michigan standout led the collegiate scene with a whopping 27 rush scores in his final year. He's one of the top rookie running backs for 2024, in part due to his ability to stampede Sean McVay's offense should Williams go down.

With Corum in town, the Rams have the flexibility to play it a bit safer with Williams. That seems to be the direction they're heading. McVay insisted that while Williams is their starting guy, the team will "be smart" about his workload in an attempt to accommodate a full season.

We probably won't see Williams average 18.4 attempts per game again this season. His overall volume will be shortchanged in comparison to last season, but he still saw a crazy amount of looks near the goal line last season, owning an 80.3% red zone rush share and 21.3% red zone target share. This volume resulted in Williams notching 4.6 touchdowns over expectation, another spot where he could come back down to Earth.

Los Angeles figures to come out with a boisterous offense once again, as FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes' model has the Rams projected to average the 10th-most points per game.

So, with Williams, we still have an efficient runner entrenched in a high-scoring offense that is known for juicing their backs. However, a more moderate workload could hinder the player who averaged the second-most fantasy points per game at RB last season. The trade-off in game-to-game output could, on the other hand, result in a healthier season for Williams.

Kyren Williams Fantasy Football Projection

FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- expect Williams to log 1,260 yards and 10.2 touchdowns via 287 carries. They also forecast him for 271 yards and 2.2 scores in the passing game. These projections assume that all players will play a full 17-game season, which is a fairly bold assumption when talking about Williams.

All in all, these projections are good for an RB6 standing, a bump up from his RB7 ADP at pick 16.

The difference between Williams' output through 12 games last season (1,350 total yards and 15 total touchdowns) and his projections through 17 games this season (1,531 total yards and 12.4 total touchdowns) reinforces what we've already touched on: regression -- be it from volume, efficiency, or red zone looks -- is imminent.

The Rams went 7-1 in games where Williams rushed for at least 87 yards last season. In fact, he averaged a massive 119.3 yards from scrimmage and 1.4 touchdowns in this split. It's not easy to forget how successful the Rams are when he's dominating a heavy workload.

An injury-riddled career paired with signs of a more manageable workload threatens Williams' fantasy status to a degree, but a glass-half-full approach would indicate a dominant season. It's a measure of risk and reward with Williams, and he could fall harshly onto either side of that equation.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.