Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Week 4)

There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 4 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output leading into Week 4.

Let's highlight a few names.

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk is on the list again this week after it was his teammate -- Jauan Jennings -- erupted in Week 3.

Jennings scored 3 times and had 175 yards on 12 targets. Of those 12 targets, 7 were at least 10 yards downfield, and 6 were in the red zone.

By contrast, Brandon Aiyuk totaled 48 scoreless yards.

But his workload really wasn't that different: 10 total targets, 6 downfield targets, and a red zone target.

If you give added weight to downfield and red zone targets, Aiyuk's workload was more like 14.8 targets.

Aiyuk is facing the New England Patriots, who are 25th in adjusted pass defense (via numberFire), and is at home in a game with low expected winds. The Pats are 27th in catch rate over expectation and 26th in target per route rate allowed to WRs (via NextGenStats).

New England also runs a lot of man coverage (40.8%, fourth-highest in football, per NGS). Aiyuk's averaging 2.15 yards per route versus man coverage since 2022.

Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins is back.

Higgins returned in Week 3 to a pretty full role (a 92.7% route rate with a 15.8% target share).

On his 6 targets, he accrued 71.4 air yards, thanks to 2 downfield targets, 2 red zone targets, and 2 end zone targets.

This week, Higgins is on the road but draws a Carolina Panthers pass defense that ranks 28th in FanDuel points per target allowed to opposing wide receivers. They're also just mid-level by yards per route run (19th) and catch rate over expectation (22nd).

The Panthers are top-five in zone coverage rate, via NGS, and Higgins hasn't had his best production in such matchups in his career. Still, the underlying data elsewhere is really nice.

Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus Robinson is coming off of a 32-yard game, so his stock is understandably low.

However, Robinson's 32 yards came off of a single catch.

He drew 4 targets in total in Week 3 for a 17.4% target share. However, all 4 targets were at least 10 yards downfield, and he had a red zone target. An aDOT of 26.0 yards is always going to come with volatility.

The Chicago Bears are currently letting up the 21st-highest aDOT to opposing WRs -- albeit with good defense overall (including the top catch rate over expectation mark allowed to wideouts).

Robinson is eighth among WRs in unrealized air yards (-121), and the average leverage on his targets (expected fantasy points based on air yards and field location) is the same as Justin Jefferson's through Week 3.

This one probably classifies more as a "buy low" than a true "breakout" situation, but what's clear is that Robinson's role is better than his production so far.

Tank Dell

Tank Dell has had a frustrating start to the 2024 NFL season but still pops as an underachiever based on his role.

Dell has averaged only 44.7 scrimmage yards per game, 11.7 of which are coming on the ground (thanks to 1.7 carries per game).

That means he's putting up only 33.0 receiving yards per game on 5.7 targets per contest.

That's all tied to a -8.2% catch rate over expectation, so at some point, things are likely to turn around.

Dell hasn't scored yet this season but has 0.9 expected TDs by my model, 1.2 by PFF's, and 1.0 by ESPN's.

The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 25th in both catch rate over expectation and yards per route run allowed to opposing wideouts. They're also on a short week and now on the road. So Dell's at home, on turf, and facing a bottom-three adjusted pass defense, via numberFire's model.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.