Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates for Week 5

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which wide receivers should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Wide Receivers to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers

Despite seeing a healthy volume on the Carolina Panthers, Tetairoa McMillan has Pro Football Focus' sixth-worth mark in plus/minus expected fantasy points (-14.3). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, McMillan has some efficiency woes with a -3.2 catch rate over expectation (CROE) and -7.6 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE). Could McMillan bounce back and provide value in Week 5?

He has the volume to flourish, leading the Panthers with a 24.5% target share, 42.3% air yards share, and 39.6% downfield target (10+ yards) share. The first-round rookie is dominating downfield targets, led by an average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.4 yards. The rest of Carolina's receiving corps is under aDOTs of 10.0 and 20.0% air yards shares.

McMillan could have have more competition for targets as Xavier Legette (hamstring) and Jalen Coker (quad) are nearing returns. However, Legette had only a 19.9% air yards share when he was active in Week 1 and 2 while McMillan still enjoyed a 35.2% air yards share during the span. Coker could finally provide some efficiency in the receiver room, but his return could still be weeks away.

For Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins, McMillan should still dominate the Panthers' workload. Miami is a terrific matchup for the rookie to get out of his slump, for the defense has the fourth-worst adjusted pass defense while giving up the highest pass success rate and second-most yards per downfield target. The Fins are also ceding the second-most expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), giving Bryce Young a path to succeed. In fact, Young is among our top quarterbacks to stream for Week 5.

Eventually, McMillan's workload -- including 9.3 targets per game -- should lead to same fantasy points. Week 5 provides an exceptional matchup against one of the league's weakest secondaries, making the rookie an excellent buy-low target.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers

After a standout rookie season with 12.5 fantasy points per game (WR18), Ladd McConkey has not provided the same punch with only 6.4 fantasy points per game through four games (WR62). This has led to the second-year receiver carrying a -2.4 plus/minus for expected fantasy points (15th-worst mark). Can McConkey finally return to solid fantasy production?

Week 4 was likely McConkey worst outing yet with one catch for 11 receiving yards on six targets. He's taken a backseat to Quentin Johnston (25.5% target share) and Keenan Allen (24.1% target share). According to PlayerProfiler, McConkey has posted 104 slot snaps (third-highest), but he still leads the Los Angeles Chargers' wideouts with an 87.4% snap share paired with an 88.9% route rate. Thanks to a ton of 11 personnel from the Bolts, McConkey's 18.6% target share is still leading to 6.8 targets per game. The Chargers also hold the third-highest pass-play rate, adding to McConkey's opportunities.

L.A. will likely feature the usual play-calling in Week 5 as the Washington Commanders are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game and 8.6 yards per passing attempt (third-most). The Commanders are also ceding the fifth-most EPA/db, giving Justin Herbert an angle to bounce back after posting -0.51 EPA/db in Week 4.

This passing game should hit some big plays with Washington surrendering the highest aDOT and fifth-most yards per downfield target. While McConkey touts only a 16.7% downfield target share, he's still recorded at least three downfield targets in two of four games. Furthermore, he touts a favorable matchup against the Commanders' nickel Mike Sainristil.

Pro Football Focus has Sainristil with an alarming 46.4 coverage grade. McConkey faced the Kansas City Chiefs' Chamarri Conner (56.7 coverage grade) in Week 1, and this was his best outing with nine targets for six catches and 74 receiving yards (10.4 fantasy points). He's still fully capable of taking advantage of a one-on-one matchup, and the opportunities should be present with Washington running man coverage at the eighth-highest clip.

Don't count on McConkey to find the end zone as he carries a 6.7% red zone target share, but he can still stack fantasy points thanks to sheer volume.

Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys

With CeeDee Lamb out for several weeks from an ankle injury, this has shifted the Dallas Cowboys' workload in the receiving corps. George Pickens is currently WR1 as we saw him post eight catches for 134 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Jalen Tolbert is also in an elevated role, but can we overlook his 4.3 fantasy points per game and -11.6 plus/minus for expected fantasy points?

When Lamb was a full-time participant in Week 1 and 2, Tolbert still had a decent 55.4% snap share. This jumped to an 82.1% snap rate last week, and he even led Dallas' wideouts in red zone snap share (81.8%). Tolbert didn't receive a red zone target, but this is bound to come up if he continues to tout this kind of snap rate.

While he lacked red zone targets, Tolbert's targets still carried value thanks to an absurd 18.4 aDOT. Week 5's opponent -- the New York Jets -- allow 7.5 yards per passing attempt (ninth-most). The favorable matchup continues as New York rank has the second-worst adjusted pass D while surrendering the third-highest EPA/db. Dak Prescott should keep up his excellent play, proven by 0.14 EPA/db on the season.

Pickens will likely draw most matchups against New York's top cornerback Sauce Gardner. Meanwhile, Tolbert should get one-on-one clashes with Brandon Stephens (62.5 coverage grade). In Week 4, Pickens feasted on deep targets with a 53.8% downfield target share. Some of this could shift to Tolbert's plate with Pickens pulling the tougher matchup.

Furthermore, Dak should have time to work as the Jets have the seventh-lowest pressure rate. In an elevated role, Tolbert could post his first double-digit fantasy total of the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.