Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 7)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.

Last week, we touched on Jordan Mason (injured), De'Von Achane (bye), and Tony Pollard (16.3 fantasy points). Achane is still a buy-low, but you likely aren't acquiring Pollard for anything reasonable.

Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 7?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 6

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III is the RB4 in fantasy points per game, and he's finished with at least 16 fantasy points in three of four outings this season. You won't be able to buy too low on Walker, but his trade value may still not be caught up with his rest of season outlook.

Walker has seen 24.8 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and averaged 92.5 scrimmage yards per game this season. He's dominated the Seattle Seahawks red zone usage with 80% of their red zone rush attempts and an 82.9% red zone snap rate. Those are elite numbers for any back.

But where Walker could feasibly finish as a top-five running back is through the passing game. Walker's receiving usage is one of the top fantasy football trends to know heading into Week 7. He leads all running backs in receptions (5.3) and targets (6.0) per game, and he's fifth in receiving yards (34).

While his 14.6% target share isn't an absurd number, Walker's benefited from Seattle leading the league in pass rate over expectation (+5.4%). Considering how much more valuable targets are than carries in half-PPR formats, Walker's usage hints at top of the position upside.

That's especially true given their upcoming schedule. The Seahawks get the Atlanta Falcons (17th in schedule adjusted run defense), Buffalo Bills (26th), and Los Angeles Rams (29th) in their next three games. Per PFF, they have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule for running backs.

That makes this the week to buy Walker, even if you have to give up real pieces to acquire him.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

The latest chapter in the 2024 Rhamondre Stevenson saga saw him sit out Week 6 because of an injury. That came a week after he was benched in favor of Antonio Gibson before proceeding to notch 17.2 fantasy points off 20 adjusted opportunities.

For the season, Stevenson is averaging 22.2 adjusted opportunities (15th among running backs with at least three games), 2.6 red zone rush attempts (12th), and 78.6 scrimmage yards (22nd) per game. He's been a top-three finisher in three of five healthy weeks.

So, while Weeks 3 and 4 weren't great, we've seen Stevenson flash in good matchups. But he's played with only Jacoby Brissett under center thus far, and Drake Maye offered a beacon of hope for New England skill position players in his first career start. Despite Gibson and the Patriots running backs recording just 44 rushing yards on 21 carries, Maye led the team to a season-high 21 points.

That offers some hope that Stevenson could produce as an RB2 when he's back in the lineup. That's especially true considering New England running backs have the easiest remaining strength of schedule, per PFF. If Maye can elevate this Patriots offense to even league-average status, Stevenson is someone who could be a weekly starter rest of season.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

After missing the last two games, Jaylen Warren returned to the lineup on Sunday... only to see Najee Harris record a season-high 19.2 fantasy points. Warren had just 3.3 fantasy points, and he managed only 7 rushing yards on 6 attempts.

Still, Warren stepped back into a 33.9% snap rate and 12 adjusted opportunities compared to a 48.4% snap rate and 18 adjusted opportunities for Harris. But Warren quietly earned a 13% target share and ran just 3 fewer routes than Najee -- numbers we should put more stock into now that Russell Wilson is expected to be the Pittsburgh Steelers' new starting quarterback.

Pittsburgh moving away from Justin Fields could have major implications for this Pittsburgh backfield. Fields averaged 9.2 attempts, 2.8 red zone attempts, and 38.5 rushing yards per game this season. Last year, Wilson averaged just 5.3 attempts, 1.3 red zone attempts, and 19.0 yards per game.

This could open up more rush attempts for Warren as he gets healthier, and it could result in him being more heavily featured in the passing game. It feels like a lifetime ago, but we're just a year removed from Warren putting up 10 fantasy points per game while seeing a 15.3% target share. Given how ineffective Najee had been prior to this week, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the Pittsburgh backfield looked more like last year's with a more prototypical pocket passer under center.

That makes this the perfect opportunity to trade for Warren, and it shouldn't cost much to acquire him. He's someone that you may not be able to start right away but could play his way into flex consideration as the team shifts to Wilson at quarterback.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.