Fantasy Football Usage Report for Week 7

Welcome to hypotheticals week in fantasy football.

"If Player X plays, then view Player Y this way."

Some variant of that phrase is going to be uttered infinite times between now and Sunday, and there's not much we can do about it other than prepare.

Today, we'll try to lay the ground work for how to view things depending on how injury situations play out across the league. This way, we can react quickly to news and -- hopefully -- make the right decisions for our fantasy football lineups.

All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target 16-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Fantasy Football Running Back Usage

Here comes the avalanche of "if/thens."

Below, you'll find the relevant workloads for each back in action this week. It's messier than usual with so many statuses up in the air, but it should give us a good baseline of expectations once we know how things break.

Within the chart, "Adjusted Opportunities" is carries plus two times the player's target total as targets are worth twice as much as a carry for running backs in half-PPR scoring. The "RZ Share" is the percentage of team carries or targets the player has received inside the red zone. The players are sorted by their FanDuel salary on the Week 7 DFS main slate. Players who are not on the main slate are listed at the bottom, and those on bye are omitted.

Several players may have multiple splits as we await news on the health of their teammates. The Jacksonville Jaguars were omitted as we don't have a sample on them without Travis Etienne. The Cleveland Browns were also omitted due to the imminent return of Nick Chubb. We don't have a sample on the Minnesota Vikings without Aaron Jones or the San Francisco 49ers without Jordan Mason, so the only splits included there assume the incumbents are good to go. Similarly, the lone split included for the New York Giants is one without Devin Singletary as we don't know how things will shake out once he's back.

Key Notes

• I'd keep buying Kenneth Walker III stock. The Seattle Seahawks' offensive line stinks, but Walker is now averaging 6.0 targets per game. Eventually, that role should result in additional blow-up games.
• Chase Brown may have overtaken Zack Moss on Sunday night after Moss fumbled, but it's yet to be determined. Still, Brown has double-digit carries and three targets in three straight games, so regardless, his stock is on the ascent.
• Ray Davis has a tough matchup with the Tennessee Titans if James Cook misses another game, but he played an impressive 60.0% of the snaps on Monday night. Davis got three targets, as well, so there are paths to a big game despite the matchup.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver and Tight End Usage

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans

The sample on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense cooking continues to grow. They're up to fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings.

And Chris Godwin is a massive piece of that.

Through six games, here are the Bucs' target shares.

Godwin has eight-plus targets in all but one game, maxing out at 12 last week. That volume has allowed him to have yardage upside despite a lack of downfield work. We should view his hot start as sustainable, even if his touchdown-scoring pace eventually slows.

This doesn't mean we should downgrade Mike Evans. Evans has faced a tough stretch of outside corners this year, and his yardage has been muted as a result. But the downfield looks are there, and eventually, he and Baker Mayfield will start to connect on those.

As weird as it seems, I think we should feel great about both guys. They're throwing the ball more on early downs and doing so with extreme efficiency. That's really all you can ask for in fantasy.

Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz

We've now got a one-game sample on the Houston Texans without Nico Collins, and they predictably pushed work to their new top-three pass-catchers.

That's at least a 22.6% target share for all three of Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Stefon Diggs. Again, can't ask for more than that.

With that, Diggs now has multiple deep targets in three of six games this year. That's in addition to a 22.7% red-zone target share, which doesn't include the non-target touches he has gotten there, as well. His salary in DFS ($8,600) has gotten a little lofty for my tastes, but I get it.

Dell at $7,000 may be the bigger buy. He has yet to top 62 yards this year, but with his combo of overall plus deep targets, a breakout game is well within his reach. He's an easy season-long starter and a viable DFS consideration.

Ladd McConkey

We touched on Ladd McConkey in this piece before the Los Angeles Chargers' bye, but his usage was sweet again in Week 6.

McConkey led the team with eight targets there, pushing his season-long target share up to 26.5%. That didn't carry a ton of value initially because the Chargers' early-down first-half pass rate entering the bye was 45.2%.

But in Week 6 -- with Justin Herbert's ankle healthier and both starting tackles back -- that number jumped to 58.3%.

You had my curiosity. Now you have my attention.

The Chargers' aren't going to suddenly become a pass-heavy team. That's not their identity.

However, with McConkey's target share, we just need them to be less run-heavy in order to truly buy in. It's possible we're getting closer to that.

Your confidence in starting McConkey in season-long should be on the rise, and I'd be super keen on him for Monday's two-game DFS slate.

Red-Zone Usage

Joe Mixon

Earlier, we outlined how the Texans were getting their best players involved without Nico Collins.

That's true at running back, too, specifically near the end zone.

In his return to the lineup, Joe Mixon handled 8 of 11 total red-zone chances, 2 of which were targets. He had 5 of 11 chances in his lone other full game this year.

When they get close, they're riding their new backfield toy.

Mixon has been effective on the volume he has gotten, too, showing the Texans' run game isn't totally broken. Their rushing success rate is 41.0% with Mixon on the field versus 26.8% without him, per Next Gen Stats.

Mixon's DFS salary isn't low at $8,400. But he's good enough to justify that, and I'd much rather fork over the salary for him than for Diggs at $8,600.

JK Dobbins

In his first game without Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins morphed into a guy who checks all three boxes: early-down, passing-game, and goal-line work.

The 25 carries and 2 targets made the first two columns obvious.

But Dobbins had 5 of 11 red-zone chances for the Chargers on Sunday. His red-zone share with Edwards was just 26.1%.

The Chargers have played three straight games against top-10 defenses by numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings. This week, they get the 28th-ranked unit. We've got a short window to buy low, especially if people are worried on Dobbins after Kimani Vidal's big play in his debut.

Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins has been held scoreless in three of his four games this year with both of his touchdowns occurring in Week 5. His overall red-zone role is nice, though.

In those four games, Higgins leads the Cincinnati Bengals with a 28.6% red-zone target share. Nobody else is above 20%.

Higgins also doesn't necessarily need short looks, given his big-play ability. This is just another route for him to hit a ceiling should the long balls not come.

Eventually, Ja'Marr Chase's target share will rise, and that may come at the expense of Higgins. But even if that does happen, we should remain bullish on Higgins thanks to the number of high-leverage looks he's earning.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.