Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 5

Four weeks of the 2024 NFL season are complete, giving us a decent-sized sample of what to expect from teams across the league. Understanding trends can allow us to gain an advantage over our opponents in fantasy football, whether it be in season-long or DFS formats.

Player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive performances, and other factors all fit the description of trends we should keep tabs on. Taking that into account, let's take a look at a few trends to know entering Week 5.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 5

The Bucs and Bills Are Extreme Run-Funnel Defenses

Deciphering where to attack certain defenses -- through the air or on the ground -- can aid us in making more informed decisions in fantasy. Through the first four weeks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills are recording metrics that suggest they are extreme run-funneling defenses.

For the Buccaneers, they rank 9th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 32nd in schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire. Entering Week 5, Tampa Bay's defense is giving up the second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.50) and the sixth-most rushing expected points added per attempt to RBs, via NextGenStats.

This could be positive news for those who are freaking out over a slow start from Bijan Robinson -- who faces the Bucs on Thursday night in Week 5.

As for the Bills, they own the second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense and the second-worst schedule-adjusted run defense. Buffalo's defense is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.61) and the third-most rushing expected points added per attempt to RBs, and Derrick Henry just gashed them for 199 rushing yards and a score on 24 carries in their first loss of the season in Week 4.

While things could certainly change as the season advances, the Buccaneers and Bills appear to be teams we can target with RBs right now.

Chase Brown Is Gradually Seeing An Increased Role

In the first two weeks of the season, Zack Moss was shaping up to be the clear lead back for the Cincinnati Bengals. Across the first two games, Moss was logging a 74.3% snap rate, 43.4% route rate, and 13 total touches per game.

Comparatively, Chase Brown posted a 25.7% snap rate, 22.4% route rate, and only 5 total touches per game in the first two weeks of action. Despite that being the case, Brown has gradually inched closer to Moss in usage, earning a season-high 41.9% snap rate, 34.4% route rate, and 17 total touches in the Week 4 victory over the Carolina Panthers (compared to Moss getting a season-low 58.1% snap rate, 46.9% route rate, and 19 total touches).

The change in Cincy's backfield likely stems from the lack of explosiveness shown from Moss and the efficient nature of Brown whenever he's given opportunities. When diving into the numbers, Moss boasts a woeful -0.43 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a 35.4% rushing success rate, while Brown is sporting an impressive 1.56 rushing yards over expected per attempt (sixth-best mark in the NFL) and a 65.5% rushing success rate.

The Bengals haven't been consistent with how they've deployed their RBs so far, but the recent usage and metrics need to be taken into consideration for Moss and Brown moving forward.

Diontae Johnson Is Getting Elite Usage with Andy Dalton at QB

We now have a two-game sample of Andy Dalton starting at QB for the Panthers, and it's been a positive development for Diontae Johnson. With Bryce Young under center for Carolina in Weeks 1 and 2, Johnson combined for 5 catches for 34 yards with a 21.8% target share, 22.6% air yards share, and 0.69 yards per route run on a 7.6-yard average depth of target.

On the flip side, Johnson has totaled 15 catches for 205 yards and 2 TDs with a 35.5% target share, 60.6% air yards share, and 2.81 yards per route run on an 11.6-yard average depth of target in the two games with Dalton. Johnson is still an extremely talented receiver, and these are the numbers he's capable of when he has a serviceable QB getting him the ball.

It has undoubtedly helped that the Panthers have faced two below-average pass defenses in the past two weeks, but the volume should be there for Johnson in offense that will be in plenty of negative game scripts. As long as Dalton is starting for Carolina, Johnson becomes a weekly starter in every fantasy format because of his usage and talent.

There's a chance the Panthers turn back to Young at some point this season, so we shouldn't take these performances from Johnson for granted.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.