How Does Tyler Allgeier Alter Bijan Robinson's Fantasy Football Outlook?

Early in the 2024 NFL season things have not gone as expected for the top running backs in fantasy football drafts. In fact, things have gotten pretty messy.

Christian McCaffrey, who carried an average draft position (ADP) of first overall and RB1 in half-PPR (via FantasyPros), continues to deal with Achilles tendonitis and has yet to make his season debut. Breece Hall (RB2 ADP) and Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP) aren't safe, either. Hall's efficiency has lacked with -0.08 rushing yards over expectation per carry (per NFL's Next Gen Stats), causing Braelon Allen to get an increased workload. The same thing is happening to Robinson as Tyler Allgeier is becoming a larger and larger threat to Bijan's workload.

What does this mean for the Atlanta Falcons' backfield going forward? Is it time to sell Robinson, or can he still deliver on his high ADP?

Bijan Robinson's Usage

According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson is still getting a huge workload on the season. He's holding a 83.3% snap share (third-highest among his position), 75.0% opportunity share (seventh-highest), and 47.6 weighted opportunities (sixth-highest). Robinson took at least 75.0% of the snaps from Week 1 to Week 3. So, where's the trouble?

The usage concern is mostly due to Week 4's results. Bijan played for 36 snaps (64%); his previous low was 46 snaps (75%). He logged only 11 touches in Week 4 while 18 touches was his previous low from Week 3. Of course, some of this was chalked up to Kirk Cousins racking up 35 passing attempts. Atlanta's 70.0% pass play percentage was a bit uncharacteristic (58.1% on the season).

While the Falcons' carries were down in general, this gets far more concerning. Allgeier made his presence known in Week 4.

Tyler Allgeier's Expanding Role

Prior to Week 4, Allgeier posted snap counts of 10, 13, and 13. This spiked to 21 snaps last week, good for a 38% snap rate. For comparison, Allgeier's previous high was 21% in Week 2 and Week 3.

The touches were nearly even, as well, with Allgeier totaling 10 to Bijan's 11. The biggest brow raiser was the usage in the second half of the 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Allgeier posted 13 snaps to Robinson's 14 in the second half, and he would log seven rushing attempts while Bijan recorded only one. If that's not eye-opening, I'm not sure what is.

This could be headed toward mirroring the 2023 season, which gave Robinson a 68.6% snap share. While this was still the ninth-highest mark at his position, his opportunity share finished 31st, and Bijan was 17th at his position in fantasy points per game with this workload. That's far from good enough for an ADP of RB3.

You're probably wondering why Allgeier dominated the carries in the second half of Week 4. Let's dig into the stats.

Falcons' Backfield Fantasy Football Outlook

This one's simple: Allgeier has been the much more efficient back. He's averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to Robinson's 4.1. With the Falcons holding Pro Football Focus' seventh-best run block grade, Bijan's yards per carry is nothing to write home about.

It keeps going on as Allgeier is logging 0.94 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C). Among qualifying players, this would have been the sixth-best mark in football a season ago; that's how good Allgeier has been. Meanwhile, Robinson is at -0.33 RYOE/C. It was a completely different story in 2023 with Bijan holding 0.38 RYOE/C compared to -0.38 from Allgeier. It made perfect sense why Robinson was taking nearly 70% of the carries, but from what we've seen so far, Bijan's workload should not keep climbing with weak efficiency.

Most of the concern applies to rushing attempts as Robinson should still dominate the receiving work. He's racked up 16 targets and 15 catches through four games while Allgeier has logged only 3 targets and receptions. Even in Week 4, Bijan doubled Allgeier's receiving work with four targets and catches to his counterpart's two.

Robinson carries a 14.2% target share while Allgeier has a measly 2.7%. Plus, Bijan has still been efficient with 10.7 receiving yards over expectation per contest.

That inspires some confidence for Robinson going forward, but what would fewer carries mean? It's difficult to not worry about Bijan's red zone work if this continues. Neither player got red zone carries in Week 4, but the two backs are evenly split at a 50.0% red zone rushing attempts share for the season.

Robinson has only one rushing touchdown this season. The alarms should be going off as Allgeier took 42.9% of the red zone carries in 2023 while Bijan took only 27.4% of the rushing attempts. Robinson's fantasy was held back from only four rushing touchdowns a season ago; after Week 4's split, we could be headed toward more of the same.

This is more about taking away from Robinson's value, though. Don't expect Allgeier to be a consistent fantasy producer as he finished 42nd in fantasy points per game at his position last season (7.6). Allgeier is only averaging 5.3 fantasy points per game in half-PPR through four contests, as well.

While Bijan still has intriguing PPR value thanks to his receiving work, it's starting to look unlikely that Robinson will deliver on his RB3 ADP. Allgeier's efficiency as a rusher is posing a big threat, as we saw in Week 4.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.