4 Best NFL Bets for Week 5

A lot of times when betting the NFL, you have to pinch your nose and bet on bad quarterbacks.

The market -- justifiably -- hates bad quarterbacks. Thus, if you're looking to find value, sometimes you have to suck it up and click.

This, my friends, is not one of those weeks.

Instead, two of the bigger values in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds are headed by quarterbacks who have been efficient over large samples and are viable options to win MVP this year.

Maybe that means I'm the donkey, buying in on teams the market is receptive to betting. But my numbers say they're values, and I'm inclined to agree.

Let's dig into those two spots first, and then we'll lay out a couple of totals where I see value, as well.

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks

Cardinals at 49ers

49ers -7.5 (-105)

Laying 7.5 points is always a little awkward as we lose on a seven-point win. But my model has the San Francisco 49ers favored by double digits, so I'm willing to bite that bullet.

I don't know how the Arizona Cardinals' defense gets a stop here. They rank 30th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive metrics, meeting the low expectations we had for them entering the year. That's up against a 49ers offense that -- despite zero snaps of Christian McCaffrey -- leads the league in early-down passing efficiency and is second in late-down success rate, according to my schedule-adjusted numbers.

The Cardinals' offense looked great in Weeks 1 and 2 but underwhelmed at home each of the following two weeks. As a result, even at an awkward number, I think there's value in laying the points with the 49ers here.

Bills at Texans

Bills' Moneyline (-112)

Our last memory of the Buffalo Bills is watching them get the life stomped out of them by the Baltimore Ravens, a result that was not ideal for my bankroll.

I'm willing to back to the well this week as they face the Houston Texans.

Most of this is because the Ravens are simply a bad matchup for the Bills, something I overlooked in my analysis. They've got big bodies who can bully you, and the Bills' defense wants to play small.

The Texans aren't that way. Their top tight end -- Dalton Schultz -- is known more for his pass-catching than his blocking. When Joe Mixon erupted in Week 1, Brevin Jordan played half the snaps, per Next Gen Stats. Jordan is now on IR with a torn ACL.

Conversely, the Bills match up great against the Texans' defense. The Texans' big weakness is their linebackers, and most of the Bills' key contributors -- James Cook, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid -- make hay in the middle of the field.

Simply put, this spot for the Bills is radically different than what they faced Sunday night.

I don't mind if you want to lay the 1.5 points with the Bills here at -102. One isn't a super key number in the NFL. With that said, teams favored by roughly the same amount as the Bills in my model have won by exactly one point 4.9% of the time (across a sample of 103 instances), so I'm fine laying a bit extra with the moneyline to cover me in that instance.

Colts at Jaguars

Total Under 46.5 (-115)

I don't enjoy betting unders on Indianapolis Colts games. They play at a blistering pace, and it can lead to chaos and points in bunches.

I just think this number is too high.

Neither team is moving the ball efficiently through the air. The Colts are 19th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted numbers, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 26th. They've been solid rushing, but that helps bleed clock more than anything.

We'll also have some wind in this game, which doesn't hurt. Current projections are at 10 miles per hour, which lowers the total almost two points for me. It'll likely lead to some uneasiness, but I think that all combined is enough to justify an under despite the Colts' style of play.

Panthers at Bears

Total Under 42.5 (-115)

We've also got wind to deal with here. It sits at 12 miles per hour as the Chicago Bears host the Carolina Panthers, once again pushing me toward the under.

The Bears' defense plays a key role, as well. They're numberFire's fifth-ranked unit, and they're fourth against the pass. It has led to all four Bears games thus far falling under 42.5 points.

I've got a big boost on the Panthers' side for Andy Dalton with how well he has played through two games. But it's important to keep in mind those games came against the 20th- and 26th-ranked defenses with one game indoors and the other at home. This game is neither, and the competition is much stiffer.

Although Caleb Williams has shown improvements of late, the Bears' offense doesn't instill a ton of fear just yet. My model has this one under 40 points, allowing me to bet on the Bears' defense and on some regression out of the Panthers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.