Fantasy Football: 10 Bold Predictions for 2024

Patrick Mahomes wasn't a QB1 in 10-team leagues last season.

At age 31, Raheem Mostert scored 22 rushing touchdowns to finish as the RB2 on the season in any format.

Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua just broke the record for receiving yards and catches by a rookie after barely leading his Brigham Young Cougars team in that category a year prior.

The NFL is a ridiculous league where ridiculous things happen. Making predictions or projections of things that seem ridiculous to most might actually be the most important part of being a cerebral football fan -- and fantasy football player.

In the spirit of being outgoing, I'll do my best to manage "bold" with "irrational" and give you a lens into some zany places that I'm planting my flag when going through fantasy football drafts. We'll start in descending orders of spiciness with mild takes at the start, reaching inferno levels as we get to the bottom. Enjoy.

Note: A player's average draft position (ADP) comes from FantasyPros' Consensus ADP data in half PPR. All projected rankings and point-total projections are on the basis of FanDuel's regular half-PPR scoring system.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Football Season

10. Ezekiel Elliott Records Double-Digit Rushing Touchdowns

Touchdowns can be random and are largely dependent on opportunity, creating a dynamic where we can actually target running backs who should score more entering 2024 based on their workload. Drafting a guy on the basis of "touchdowns" can be absurd methodology.

That's except in a case like this one of Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys.

Elliott returns to Dallas this season after a one-year hiatus with the New England Patriots and is vying with Rico Dowdle for the "starting" job. "Starting" just isn't particularly relevant to how he'll be a useful fantasy asset in 2024.

In Big D, even Mike McCarthy's offense kept feeding Zeke in the red zone. Amid a down year in 2022, Elliott still got 54.5% of the Cowboys' carries inside the 20, and he scored 12 touchdowns. With Tony Pollard no longer in town, he has a chance to occupy more of a role outside of the red zone while still projecting to smash Dowdle in the area of the field handing out fantasy points.

I don't understand Zeke's ADP of RB36. He was the RB19 two years ago on the wrong end of his timeshare with Pollard. In numberFire's ninth-best schedule adjusted offense last season, Elliott is going to smash the expectations here simply by falling into the end zone at least 10 times. He's also reliably available to do just that considering he's missed just three games over the last four seasons.

This isn't that bold to me, but as mentioned in Ezekiel Elliott's full fantasy football outlook, his draft position clearly isn't baking in this many scores. He is this season's 2022 Jamaal Williams or 2023 Gus Edwards.

9. Ja'Lynn Polk Cracks the Top-36 Wide Receivers

The Patriots were a disaster in Bill Belichick's final season, yet chances are someone will emerge to be useful in fantasy football this season. Don't let the uniform create bias.

Alex Van Pelt comes over after having a capable, fantasy-relevant offense with the Cleveland Browns for four seasons, and that bar alone would be an improvement. This team also invested the third overall pick into a highly-touted quarterback prospect, Drake Maye. Is it out of the realm of possibility that New England's passing game is fine?

If that's the case, someone could emerge to lead it, and I'm betting on Ja'Lynn Polk. The second-rounder in 2024 has the best draft capital in the room, and as the facade of "competition" lifts, it's starting to appear that Maye and Polk are moving up the depth chart in anticipation of the regular season.

In addition to the chemistry the two must have built through offseason work, Polk was a big-play machine for the Washington Huskies last season at 16.7 yards per catch (YPC), posting 1,167 receiving yards despite catching more than eight balls in a game once all season.

Without Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan in the way, how good could Polk's production have been? We'll find out considering the Pats appear to need a No. 1 target as soon as possible.

He's the leader in the clubhouse to earn Maye's premium targets given Demario Douglas' slot profile and low aDOT (8.2) a year ago. That's a WR3 if the rookie QB is functional.

8. Aaron Rodgers Lands Outside the Top-25 QBs in Total Points (Again)

This whole "dominant in your 40s" thing seemed a whole lot easier when Tom Brady was doing it.

I'm not even sure it's bold to say Aaron Rodgers is rowing up a certain creek without a paddle entering 2024, yet he's the QB18 in ADP again. I suppose there's a certain amount of grace you want to give the back-to-back NFL MVP in 2020 and 2021, but a lot has changed since those awards.

In addition to becoming increasingly prickly and missing practice for odd reasons, Rodgers has to overcome an Achilles tear that occurred four snaps into last season -- at 40. While the New York Jets made improvements to their offensive line with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, those two have missed their own share of games in the past half decade.

A quarterback that's magic in his prime came from extending plays will now be limited in movement, negating his rushing upside in fantasy football, too. Plus, the Jets likely play a slow tempo to lean into the team's strengths: Breece Hall and numberFire's fourth-best schedule-adjusted defense in 2023.

None of this screams a riveting option in fantasy football before addressing the elephant in the room about potential injuries for the aging signal-caller. There are so many better worthwhile options that have the ability to run a little like Will Levis or Bryce Young that are worth your time instead.

7. J.K. Dobbins Posts 1,000 Scrimmage Yards as the Chargers' Lead Running Back

There's gold in the Los Angeles Chargers backfield. It'll be claimed by whomever is digging in the right spot.

L.A. brought in Jim Harbaugh this offseason, and the former Michigan Wolverines coach has made it no secret he wants to run the dang ball. Harbaugh's Wolverines posted a 59.6% rush rate last year, and he called offensive tackle Joe Alt "a weapon". This will help them keep nF's sixth-worst schedule-adjusted defense from a year ago off the field more, too.

With new offensive coordinator Greg Roman coming over from the Baltimore Ravens and bringing a pair of former Ravens, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, with him, it's not really a mystery to me.

When healthy in 2020, 2022 and 2023, Dobbins worked ahead of Edwards in Roman's offense. Believe it or not, he's still only 25 and says he's ready to go in a prove-it-or-lose-it year with Bolts. It sounds like rookie Kimani Vidal has slipped behind this race and is closer to the roster bubble.

Dobbins' most useful argument is as the passing-down back considering Edwards had just 12 catches all of last season, too. It's possible Edwards' only role -- as annoying as this might be -- would be as a goal-line vulture just as he was in Baltimore.

That was more frustrating at Dobbins' old ADP, but it's currently 138.7 as the RB42 on average. A 55-60% snap share with passing-down work here would be well worth that investment if health is finally on his side.

6. Tank Dell is the Texans' Best Scoring Wide Receiver

The Houston Texans wide receiver room has a clear hierarchy by ADP, but I'm not sure that it's that simple.

Nico Collins (31.3 ADP) is seen as this team's WR1, and Stefon Diggs (39.3) isn't far behind with six straight 1,000-yard seasons in the till. Tank Dell (64.7 ADP) is way behind these two when, in many respects, he was C.J. Stroud's favorite target before a broken leg ended his season.

In the final eight games Dell and Collins played together last year, the former's 23.2% target share was better than the latter's (21.4%). The two averaged an identical 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR) when "efficiency" is Collins' calling card as a potential breakout candidate this season, and Dell posted 51.4 more air yards per game.

Ostensibly, in everything Collins does at an elite level, Dell was better. Diggs' addition to this room is the great unknown when the 30-year-old posted 2.06 YPRR himself with the Buffalo Bills last season, yet he's got ground to cover on the other two in terms of chemistry with Stroud.

When these projected workloads are so close, it's kind of odd that one wideout is so heavily discounted relative to the others.

5. Christian McCaffrey Isn't a Top-Five RB in Total Fantasy Points

Christian McCaffrey isn't built like a normal running back, and doubting him has proved to be foolish in most instances.

However, there's somewhat of a precedent for CMC himself this season that's a bit concerning. The last time McCaffrey handled at least 325 touches in consecutive seasons (2018 and 2019), he went on to play just 13 total games the following two years. As a feature back for a San Francisco 49ers team chasing a Lombardi, McCaffrey has again exceeded that mark now in 2022 (329) and 2023 (334) -- and that's just in the regular season. Unlike with the Carolina Panthers, he's added 130 playoff touches in this period, too.

I'm deeply concerned about him at the 1.01 as a result. Injuries aren't a reason alone to fade guys, but there's known wear and tear that CMC himself has struggled to maintain, and he's now 28 rather than sub-25-years-old. Even ignoring his slighter frame, this is just a lot of work in a violent sport. It's already started with a calf injury that caused him to miss the preseason entirely.

Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams are also holding out to potentially hurt this offense; there are enough questions that I'm looking to Bijan Robinson or a receiver at the top overall pick. This is a bold take because McCaffrey is so much better than every tailback in fantasy football when healthy, but we have significant reason to believe that may not be the case.

4. Jayden Daniels Posts a Top-Three Quarterback Campaign

Jayden Daniels is not short on passengers aboard his fantasy football hype train. I'm going off the deep end to cut in front of everyone for first class.

I agree with our own Kenyatta Storin about Daniels being a potential fantasy football league-winner as someone who has deep dove college counting stats for fantasy there. I've not seen a campaign like Daniels' 2023 with the LSU Tigers, where he averaged 317.7 passing yards and 94.5 rushing yards per game. This was similar to Lamar Jackson's own Heisman season, but Daniels did it right in the teeth of the SEC.

Daniels' near-perfect preseason has already showcased the deep ball and the rushing upside, so I'm not sure why he's going behind Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott among others the QB12. That's even lower on some fantasy platforms, too.

As the Washington Commanders new offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury should vastly boost the pace and pass rate of this Washington offense -- even with a rookie QB. Daniels will also face a below-average schedule in terms of difficulty for a QB.

There are plenty of effective options in one-QB formats to make Daniels less of a priority, but he's got "league-winner" highlighted in bright yellow within superflex formats at this ADP.

3. DK Metcalf Totals More Fantasy Points Than A.J. Brown

Why not have a little fun with these old college teammates? A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf are currently going about 14 wideouts apart in drafts, but I anticipate a much closer outlook between the two.

That starts with being lower on Brown, whose fantasy situation might have changed more than any first-round pick this side of Bijan Robinson. Brown felt the impact of the Philadelphia Eagles' collapse as much as any of their offensive pieces, totaling just 8.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in his final eight contests.

While new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should add pace and creativity to Philadelphia's attack, Brown will always have talented competition for touches between himself, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and the Birds added Saquon Barkley and 2022 first-rounder Jahan Dotson this offseason.

To me, there's too much competition to draft him in the first round. That's largely the knock on D.K. Metcalf in a "worse" offense with a "worse" quarterback, but Geno Smith posted 0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) to Jalen Hurts' 0.00 last season.

Metcalf, though, had just two games below 8.8 fantasy points all season in 2023. He's also clearly entrenched as Seattle's top option with Jaxon Smith-Njigba's potential breakout still pending and Tyler Lockett (1.68 YPRR in 2023) declining at 31. He was fourth in the NFL in end zone targets per game (1.5) last season as a favorite of Geno in close.

The historic downside to Metcalf's Seattle Seahawks was a run-first offense under Pete Carroll's coordinators, but Ryan Grubb comes over as the 2024 coordinator from the Washington Huskies, injecting Washington's 58.9% pass rate last season into this unit.

There's just not a whole bunch different between these two athletic freaks' situations and profiles. It's bizarre they're going so far apart.

2. Kyle Pitts Finishes as the Top Tight End

No tight end has ever been picked sooner in the NFL Draft than Kyle Pitts. Is this the season he reminds everyone why?

Our own Skyler Carlin is on board with a bright fantasy football outlook for Kyle Pitts, and it'll be easy to conjure. Pitts' rookie year in 2021 saw him post 1,126 receiving yards and 15.1 yards per catch (YPC) with the most obvious yardage upside for the position this side of Travis Kelce, who was still in his prime.

Then, in 2022 and 2023, he was completely ignored by Arthur Smith and a quarterbacking trio of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. Smith even denounced fantasy football -- as he often has -- as justification for not giving his tight end the ball, but Atlanta stumbled to consecutive bottom-eight scoring offenses as Smith "wasn't playing fantasy". Maybe a generational tight end prospect could have helped?

New Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris has suggested Pitts has a "vendetta" to return to the position's elite and intends to get him the ball. The organization also shored up the QB situation as well as possible with Kirk Cousins (0.08 EPA/db in 2023) and top-10 pick Michael Penix Jr. both in the fold -- the latter likely in case the 36-year-old is injured as he was in 2023.

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that Pitts leads Atlanta in targets, but he'll have an excellent chance of using his yardage upside to lead tight ends in fantasy points if he can just score as his role would suggest. Pitts scored 12 times in his final campaign with the Florida Gators yet somehow has just 6 total career touchdowns despite 12 by other Atlanta tight ends in Smith's tenure.

It seemed truly intentional at points, but better days are ahead.

1. Jaylen Waddle Outscores Tyreek Hill in Total Fantasy Points

Though this is my spiciest prediction of the bunch relative to expectations, would this actually surprise anyone on a grand scale?

I think the answer is no because of how outstanding a player that Jaylen Waddle has proven to be. Waddle followed two consecutive seasons as a top-16 wideout in half-PPR fantasy points with a 2023 that disappointed -- but not based on his ability. Waddle was sixth in the NFL in YPRR (2.83); injuries and a lack of routes due to positive game scripts -- like the Miami Dolphins dropping 70 on the Denver Broncos' dome -- diminished his final results.

Miami awarded Waddle a mammoth contract extension in the offseason, and while Tyreek Hill (3.98 YPRR in 2023) was a more productive player and had a better role (32.7% target share) than Waddle last season, the ability of these two suggests to me that either could be the Dolphins' WR1 on a game-by-game basis.

It would not be unwise to expect that -- at some point soon -- the 30-year-old speedster pulls back a little. A minor thumb issue already popped up in training camp, and Hill was second in drops (12) last season as is. This type of stuff happens when you're older, and at 25, Waddle is just now entering his prime.

Is it supremely likely Waddle blows past Hill in all categories this season? No. Is the talent between these two close enough that Waddle, as my favorite third-round pick in fantasy drafts, could possibly outscore his teammate going in the top-three picks overall? Absolutely -- and especially so if Hill were to miss time.

We'll call the upset as courage favors the bold, but the real takeaway here -- and with all of these hot takes -- is to more closely consider where you're drafting these players mentioned in fantasy football leagues.

Gear up for NFL season! Customers who bet $5 will get a free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube & YouTube TV! This promo expires September 22nd. See here for full terms and conditions.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.