FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Super Bowl (Chiefs vs. 49ers)
This year's Super Bowl is set to be a much-anticipated bout between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, and the over/under is sitting at 47.5.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.
NFL DFS Single-Game Picks
MVP Candidates
Christian McCaffrey ($17,500) -- Christian McCaffrey leads all players in the Super Bowl in FanDuel points per game at 22.96. The All-Pro back also leads all running backs in adjusted opportunites per game (28.3) and scrimmage yards per game (126.8), via NextGenStats. The Chiefs permit the seventh-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.42) and the eighth-most receptions (93) to running backs.
Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) -- Ceiling games haven't been a common occurrence for Patrick Mahomes this season, but the gunslinging quarterback is always capable of having an explosive outing -- especially in a playoff setting. Mahomes averages a solid 18.23 FanDuel points per game and is posting a 51.4% passing success rate in the playoffs so far. The 49ers have the fifth-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, via numberFire's metrics, and Mahomes averages 17.1 FanDuel points per game against teams inside the top 10 in schedule-adjusted pass defense.
Brock Purdy ($14,500) -- Quarterbacks are common MVP candidates on single-game slates, so not using Mahomes or Brock Purdy in the multiplier spot can already separate you from part of the field. Purdy has been efficient all season, leading all quarterbacks in expected points added per drop back (0.24) despite attempting the 16th-most passes (514). While Purdy doesn't provide much of a ceiling with his legs, he has five games this season where he's notched 250-plus passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns.
Travis Kelce ($13,000) -- The No. 1 target for Mahomes is still Travis Kelce, who has logged 71-plus receiving yards in each game and three total touchdowns in Kansas City's three postseason matchups. The experienced tight end has registered 22-plus FanDuel points in back-to-back games, proving he can be a better MVP candidate than his quarterback on single-game slates. The 49ers also allow the sixth-highest target rate (20.2%) and the fourth-most receptions (105) to tight ends. Lastly, Kelce owns the highest receiving yards prop in the NFL player props section on FanDuel Sportsbook at 70.5 yards.
Flex Breakdown
Deebo Samuel ($11,500) -- One player who is always capable of a slate-breaking performance due to his versatility is Deebo Samuel. Even with a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Divisional Round contest, Samuel bounced back with a team-high eight receptions and 89 receiving yards in the Conference Championship Round. While the Chiefs present a stiff challenge with their formidable pass defense, Samuel has three multi-touchdown games in his last eight appearances. Samuel has the third-highest rushing plus receiving yards prop (76.5) in the NFL player props on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rashee Rice ($11,000) -- Aside from Kelce, Rashee Rice is the only other pass-catcher the Chiefs have instilled confidence in down the stretch. The first-year receiver boasts the second-highest target share (27.5%) and yards per route run (2.42) while having the third-highest air yards share (19.1%) on the Chiefs amid their postseason run. Even though the 49ers are pretty stingy against wideouts, they do surrender the 10th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.07) to receivers, which is relevant with Rice generating a decent chunk of his yards after the catch.
Brandon Aiyuk ($10,500) -- Brandon Aiyuk paces the 49ers across the board in target share (23.7%), air yards share (39.3%), end-zone target share (39.1%), and yards per route run (2.99). The big-play wideout's receiving yards prop is listed at 63.5 yards, which is the highest line among San Francisco's skill players. While Aiyuk has amassed fewer than 70 receiving yards in three straight games, he has posted 100-plus receiving yards and/or one receiving touchdown in 11 of his 18 games this season.
George Kittle ($10,000) -- Many people were disappointed to see George Kittle finish with a mere 27 receiving yards on two receptions in the Conference Championship Round. Nevertheless, Kittle owns the second-highest air yards share (23.3%) and the third-most yards per route run (2.37) among the 49ers' loaded group of weapons. Despite Kansas City's defense allowing the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per target (1.18) to tight ends, it also surrenders the 13th-highest catch rate over expected (+1.4%) to the position.
Kyle Juszczyk ($5,500) -- If we want to try to fit in a lot of the studs in the Super Bowl, we're going to need some massive value options. Kyle Juszczyk isn't an overly exciting option, but the versatile fullback is seemingly seeing an increased role during the playoffs with a 50.8% snap share (he had a 46.8% snap share in the regular season). The veteran fullback has multiple receptions in four of his last six games, and all we need is a few points from him to be a worthwhile salary-saving player at $5,500.
Noah Gray ($5,500) -- For the Chiefs, they have been deploying a bit more 12 and 13 personnel groupings in the playoffs. Noah Gray tallied a 52.5% snap share and a 41.5% route participation during the regular season. Meanwhile, the young tight end has gotten a 55.9% snap share in the team's three postseason contests. With the Chiefs lacking legitimate pass-catching threats alongside Kelce and Rice, Gray has earned three-plus targets in five of his last six games.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.