FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Week 17

Due to the scheduling this week, the Week 17 main slate on FanDuel is only nine games deep, but that still gives us plenty of offenses to break down as we examine this week's NFL DFS action.

Using our NFL DFS projections as a guide, let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 17 FanDuel main slate.

NFL DFS Picks for Week 17

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: $9,100
Matchup: vs. NYJ

Josh Allen's hot streak came to an end in Week 16, a potentially costly one for season-long managers but also for those who rallied around him as a high-end DFS quarterback option last week against the New England Patriots. Allen put up just 12.16 FanDuel points in Week 16, his first game with fewer than 20.2 FanDuel points since Week 5.

He's in a bounce-back spot again this week, mostly due to the fact that the rest of the quarterback landscape is pretty lacking on this week's slate. No other quarterbacks have a salary over $8,500, and there are only four other quarterbacks with salaries over $8,000.

Allen is facing a New York Jets team that is 16th in adjusted pass defense this season, per numberFire, so that's not really enough to dismiss his upside. What's really interesting here is that the Buffalo Bills are very likely to finish as the 2 seed in the AFC but could still land with the 3 seed with the Baltimore Ravens nipping at their heels.

In the first meeting with the Jets this season, Allen threw 25 times for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran 9 times (for only 18 yards) and a rushing touchdown for 24.4 FanDuel points.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

FanDuel Salary: $8,500
Matchup: vs. ATL

Jayden Daniels is at home against a Atlanta Falcons defense that is coming off of a big fantasy game but still ranks just 27th in adjusted pass defense on the season. They're also 32nd in completion percentage over expectation allowed to opponents and only 30th in pressure rate on the year, according to NextGenStats.

Daniels has averaged 24.7 FanDuel points per game in seven matchups against teams 20th or worse by pressure rate while posting elite efficiency numbers and running 8.9 times for 43.9 yards per game in this split.

Based on my slate simulations, Daniels is the clear top quarterback in Tier 2 behind Allen this week, though there are other options to consider.

Others to Consider

Baker Mayfield ($8,200 vs. CAR) - Fresh off of a comeback-induced big day, Mayfield faces a bottom-three adjusted pass D.

Sam Darnold ($7,700 vs. GB) - Faces a top-five pass D but has averaged 245.8 yards and 2.6 touchdowns against top-10 units.

Michael Penix Jr. ($6,600 at WSH) - Quite efficient last week but still holds a low salary. In a game with a big total this week.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $9,600
Matchup: vs. DAL

Saquon Barkley leads the slate in salary across all positions. He is coming off of a two-touchdown game and slots into a plus matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is 26th in rushing success rate allowed and 32nd in adjusted rush defense, so things couldn't get much better.

Barkley disappointed in his first meeting with the Cowboys. He had 78 scrimmage yards on 14 carries and 1 target on a season-low 49.2% snap rate while dealing with a potential forearm injury during the game.

Barkley's target share has been down in recent games (5.3% the last three games), but he's still averaging 22.7 carries and 113.0 yards on the ground in that split with a 46.4% red zone rush share.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $8,400
Matchup: at NYG

Not only are Barkley and Bijan Robinson ($8,900) really appealing this week, but also the low-to-mid-$8,000 range is loaded this week with Jonathan Taylor ($8,400), Josh Jacobs ($8,300), De'Von Achane ($8,200), and Bucky Irving ($8,000).

To me, Taylor stands out slightly above the rest for two reasons: pure upside and matchup. We just were reminded of Taylor's ceiling after his 29-carry, 218-yard, 3-touchdown game. He entered a touchdown regression candidate -- and actually still is, per my numbers, for the full season.

But he's facing a New York Giants team that is 32nd in rushing yards over expectation allowed per carry to opposing running backs.

The Indianapolis Colts' implied team total is a healthy 24.0 points, and their status as favorites put Taylor on track for a fourth straight game with 20-plus carries.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $7,400
Matchup: vs. GB

Aaron Jones is up against his former team, the Green Bay Packers, this week and jumps out in the $7,000 range for a few reasons.

Jones' snap rate shot up to 82.3% in Week 16, his highest snap rate since Week 8. He also played all five red zone snaps and had the only red zone carry -- plus a red zone target.

Jones has four touchdowns over his last five games but is still short of his expected touchdown output. My model has Jones with 10.3 expected scores, and he has just 7 total -- making him one of the biggest regression candidates in the league.

Among the four high-totaled games, this tilt has -- by far -- the closest spread. This game is really appealing, and Jones is a pretty easy way to get exposure to it.

Others to Consider

Josh Jacobs ($8,300 at MIN) - Jacobs, Achane, and Irving all look interesting around Taylor's salary, but Jacobs is part of the most appealing game of the main slate and was slowed down only due to game script in Week 16.

Chuba Hubbard ($7,600 at TB) - An 83.1% snap rate last week for 30 opportunities, 152 scrimmage yards, and 2 touchdowns is the type of workload that can overcome a middling matchup.

Brian Robinson ($6,900 vs. ATL) - We'll need upside if avoiding or omitting the sheer amount of high-end RBs this week; Robinson had a 75.0% first-half snap rate and 75.0% red zone snap rate last week in a negative script. Atlanta is 23rd in rushing success rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Addison FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: vs. GB

Again, this Packers/Minnesota Vikings game is really interesting from a process standpoint (high total, tight spread, and indoors), so it stands to reason that I'm interested in some pass-catchers here. However, it's a lot easier to sell yourself on the Vikings' market shares.

Justin Jefferson is coming off of a 13-target, 144-yard, 2 touchdown game. He now has five touchdowns over his last three games after a six-game drought. Jefferson has 27 targets over his last two games and 10.5 per contest over his last four while maintaining a 32.3% target share and 41.3% air yard share in that four-game sample. Jefferson had 85 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets in his first matchup with Green Bay.

Jordan Addison's target share is 26.9% in this four-game split, and he's averaging 71.3 yards per game with a 33.3% red zone target share. Addison hung 72 yards and a touchdown through the air and had a rushing score against Green Bay back in Week 4.

Addison is averaging 88.8 yards per game in six contests against teams that run a majority of zone defense, too.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons

London FanDuel Salary: $7,100
Mooney FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Matchup: at WSH

Drake London earned a team-high 30.8% target share (8 targets) for 53 receiving yards with Michael Penix under center last week and maintained his great red zone role (2 of 5 targets for a 40.0% red zone target share). He also saw the lone end zone target.

Darnell Mooney, though, had more of the downfield work, as usual. Mooney ended with 6 targets (23.1%), 4 of which were downfield targets (10-plus air yards). He accounted for 47.6% of the team's air yards, and he totaled 82 receiving yards.

This week, the Falcons are in a massive game for playoff implications against a pass defense that's just 21st by adjusted efficiency.

Last week, Penix didn't have a ton of passing production, but he was efficient, and he should be able to be efficient again this week. They also are unlikely to play from ahead like they did last week.

Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $5,100
Matchup: at TB

Jalen Coker has quietly had a nice role since returning to the Carolina Panthers' lineup two weeks ago. His single-game target shares have been 22.2% and 20.8% -- to very different results.

In Week 15, he saw 6 targets and generated 110 yards and a touchdown for 22.0 FanDuel points. Last week, he had 5 targets for 2 catches and 8 yards. But he had three downfield looks out of five and also had two end zone targets. The building blocks for an eruption were there for Coker again.

Interestingly, Coker's role actually spiked back in Week 10 -- and then he missed time. In that Week 10 game, Coker had an 88.9% route rate and a 32.0% target share.

So, if we open up this team's sample to those three games specifically, Coker is seeing a 25.0% target share and 37.0% air yard share with 3.7 downfield targets per game with a 42.9% end zone target share.

Others to Consider

Mike Evans ($8,600 vs. CAR) & Jalen McMillan ($5,900) vs. CAR - Sneaking in more teammates against Carolina's 30th-ranked adjusted pass defense. Evans had 7 downfield targets and 135 air yards last week. McMillan had 5 downfield looks and 7 total targets.

Calvin Ridley ($6,300 at JAC) - Ridley faces the league's 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense. He's second among active players in air yards per game (110.5).

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Matchup: at NO

This week, Brock Bowers draws a New Orleans Saints defense that ranks 25th in yards per route run allowed to opposing tight ends on the year, and that means a ceiling game could be in the books for Bowers.

Bowers had two straight games with a sub-20% target share in Weeks 14 and 15 before spiking back up to a 35.1% share a week ago.

On those 13 targets, Bowers racked up 11 catches for 99 yards. He now has six games with at least 90 yards this season.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

FanDuel Salary: $5,400
Matchup: at JAC

Chig Okonkwo has been heavily involved in the Tennessee Titans' offense the last two weeks (21 total targets) and has been more of a focal point in games with Mason Rudolph under center. In Rudolph's full games, Okonkwo has a 17.6% target share.

Okonkwo is also coming off of season-bests in routes, yards, and snaps from a week ago.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 23rd in yards per route run allowed and 27th in catch rate over expectation allowed to tight ends.

Others to Consider

David Njoku ($6,200 vs. MIA) - Earned a 32.3% target share in his return to the lineup but did see a dip in aDOT (4.2 yards).

T.J. Hockenson ($5,700 vs. GB) - Another part of GB/MIN to consider, Hockenson has a 19.8% target share in his last five games.

Jake Ferguson ($5,500 at PHI) - Volume is open with CeeDee Lamb out for the year; Ferguson just had a 27.3% target share

Defenses

Jacksonville Jaguars

FanDuel Salary: $3,600
Matchup: vs. TEN

Jacksonville is hosting Mason Rudolph and the Titans this week as slight home favorites.

Rudolph has eight touchdowns and eight picks so far this season while maintaining decent (but below-average) EPA per play numbers.

The wind here looks to be up, as well, with projections around 11 miles per hour.

Jacksonville -- by no real measure -- is a good defense, yet the matchup is there for production, as turnovers and sacks are where we should be looking for fantasy points on defense.

Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $3,200
Matchup: at NO

The Raiders are on the road here but facing a Spencer Rattler-led Saints offense, one that struggled mightily on Monday Night Football in Week 16.

Rattler was sacked 3 times on 33 drop backs and totaled just 153 yards on his 30 pass attempts.

He now owns the second-worst opponent-adjusted EPA per play among all quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs on the season.

The Raiders are -- by far -- the top projected value defense on the board this week.

Others to Consider

New Orleans Saints ($4,000 vs. LV)

Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 vs. TEN)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.