The Knicks winning Game 1 at home is the highest-probability outcome on Tuesday's board, and the analytical foundation is among the most thorough of any game this postseason. New York has strung together seven straight postseason wins with a 6-1 record on the spread, averaging 125.3 points per game across those victories. Their home dominance this season is historic — 26-15 ATS as a home favorite in 2025-26, going 30-10 straight up at home in the regular season.

Cleveland is just the sixth team in the post-2003 era to go the full seven games in each of the first two rounds and advance. The last two teams to do so fell in Game 1 of their conference finals by double digits as underdogs of at least seven points. The structural case is further amplified by the rest disparity — the Knicks have had nine full days of rest since sweeping Philadelphia on May 10, while Cleveland is on a quick turnaround after their Game 7 win over the Pistons on Sunday.

OG Anunoby is confirmed to play in Game 1 per ESPN's Shams Charania, returning New York's second-best player to the lineup after missing Games 3 and 4 against Philadelphia. When Anunoby plays, the Knicks are a different team. When he does not, they still swept a conference semis series. The Knicks win Game 1 at the Garden.

Jalen Brunson averages 26 points, 3.3 boards and 6.8 assists per game this season, shooting 46.7% from the floor and 36.9% from beyond the arc with 2.6 made threes per contest. The 27.5 line essentially mirrors his season average — and there are compelling structural reasons why Game 1 at MSG in the Eastern Conference Finals specifically elevates Brunson's production above that baseline.

Brunson has exceeded 2.5 three-pointers in four of his last five games at home, averaging 2.8 per game in that stretch. His home production at Madison Square Garden throughout this postseason has been exceptional, and the ECF spotlight is precisely the moment Brunson has been building toward all season. Mitchell and Harden combined for nearly 48 points per game in their second-round series against the Detroit Pistons — meaning Cleveland's defense will have its hands full accounting for Anunoby, KAT, and the rest of the Knicks' roster simultaneously. That defensive complexity opens Brunson's mid-range and pick-and-roll opportunities consistently.

Cleveland's defensive rating ranks 15th in the league — well below the level required to consistently contain an elite half-court creator like Brunson at home. The model projects three Knicks players to top 20 points in Game 1, with Brunson projected as the clear lead scorer. On his home floor, in a close-out environment that has consistently produced his best individual games all postseason, 27.5 points is his floor, not his ceiling.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the most undervalued individual prop on Tuesday's entire board, and his rebounding matchup against the Cavaliers' interior is the key to unlocking this SGP's payout value. Towns averages 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3 assists per game this season. The 10.5 line sits more than a full rebound below his season average — meaning the market is asking for a below-average performance from one of the league's best rebounders.

The specific matchup advantage is critical. Mitchell Robinson completely swung the 2023 playoff series between these teams by outplaying Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the boards. Robinson is still the Knicks' interior anchor, but the addition of KAT has fundamentally changed New York's rebounding profile. More importantly for this prop: the Cavaliers' frontcourt — Allen and Mobley — tends to prioritize defensive positioning over boxing out when KAT operates on the perimeter, creating live-ball rebounding opportunities when his pull-up threes miss and soft-crash attempts produce second-chance rebounds.

Cavaliers games have gone above the over/under 41.5% of the time at home — but on the road they hit the over 58.5% of the time. A higher-scoring, faster-paced game in which both teams generate misses at an elevated rate naturally produces more rebound opportunities for the biggest bodies on the floor — and KAT is one of those bodies. His 11.9 season average makes the 10.5 line a soft threshold, especially in a home playoff game where his usage and aggression are guaranteed to be maximized.