Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday 5/19/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Mark Vientos (+410)
• Yordan Alvarez (+255)
• Julio Rodriguez (+440)

The wind is blowing out at Target Field tonight, a pair of shaky lefties are on the mound, and Yordan Alvarez is absolutely scorching. Today's MLB slate has the makings of a fun Dinger Tuesday. With the help of our MLB projections, here are the three home run props worth targeting on FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Mets at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

After a down 2025 campaign, Mark Vientos is turning things around a bit this season, and I like his matchup today versus left-hander Foster Griffin.

Vientos boasts a .361 expected wOBA and has cut his K rate down to 20.4% -- a drop of 4.4 percentage points compared to last season. Against southpaws this year, Vientos owns a .359 wOBA, 41.5% fly-ball rate and 39.0% hard-hit rate. He's also been much better on the road (.339 wOBA) than at home (.255), with four of his six jacks coming away from home.

Griffin has been decent in his return to MLB. With that said, he isn't missing that many bats (10.0% swinging-strike rate) and has allowed three bombs over his past 11.1 innings.

After Griffin, Vientos will come up against a Washington Nationals bullpen that ranks fourth-worst in reliever xFIP.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Astros at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

The wind is blowing straight out tonight at Target Field, and that makes Yordan Alvarez even more appealing than usual.

Alvarez is raking this season, bashing his way to 15 homers and a laughable .491 expected wOBA. He's been a monster. With the platoon advantage, he's got a .454 wOBA, 57.0% hard-hit rate and 47.3% fly-ball rate. Those sound like made up numbers.

Today, Yordan will be up against RHP Zebby Matthews. Matthews logged 79.1 MLB innings last season and mostly did well, but lefty bats were a nightmare for him. In that split, Matthews was tagged for a .386 wOBA and 2.15 homers per nine.

To make things even better for Alvarez, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen is dead last in reliever xFIP.

Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+440)

White Sox at Mariners, 9:41 p.m. ET

Julio Rodriguez has proven to be a streaky hitter. He went yard last night and now has four homers over his last 53 plate appearances. He might be getting ready to take off after another of what's become his annual slow starts, and he's in a good spot tonight against Anthony Kay.

Kay, a lefty, has struggled this season to a 4.99 SIERA and 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Righties are mauling him, with Kay permitting a .429 wOBA and 1.84 HRs per nine in the split.

Enter Julio, who is at his best against southpaws, posting a .443 wOBA and 47.1% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. Of his eight tanks, six have come versus LHPs.

In his preferred split and getting hot, Rodriguez is my favorite home run pick today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.