FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Wednesday 9/18/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Tarik Skubal ($11,300), the practical shoo-in to take home this season's AL Cy Young honors, is pitching today, but he's not necessarily a high priority in DFS.

Skubal averages a whopping 41.8 FanDuel points per game and offers a high floor in fantasy. With that said, his matchup against a strikeout-resistant Kansas City Royals team (18.9% K%; second-lowest in MLB) isn't overly intriguing. More importantly, there's a couple of mid-tier throwers on Wednesday's slate that I'd love to get in on.

Let's start with the main reason why I'm not bullish on Skubal today: Spencer Schwellenbach ($9,400).

Does Schwellenbach pitch a dud every so often? Sure. But he's rocking a 3.20 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 2.90 SIERA, and a massive 30.4% strikeout rate since this All-Star break.

This has helped propel him to an average of 37.5 FanDuel points across his last nine starts, including one boisterous 64-point outing. He'll take on a Cincinnati Reds team that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate versus righties (24.9%). The Ks could be coming left and right and the Atlanta Braves are -144 moneyline favorites, giving Schwellenbach a decent chance to earn a dub.

Past him, you could look to Nestor Cortes ($8,500) in his matchup against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners strike out at a league-high 27.1% rate. Cortes doesn't hit us over the head with his 22.7% strikeout rate, but he's shown an ability to shove against weak competition and logged 39 FanDuel points in one start against Seattle this season despite lasting just five innings in that one.

I have a preference for Schwellenbach today, though Skubal is never a bad option if you can live with his salary while Cortes deserves a look at his more modest salary. You'll never have to talk me into Sonny Gray ($10,400), either, and the ace could fare especially well in a soft matchup versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Stacks to Target

• Baltimore Orioles (5.29 implied total)
  • The O's have the highest implied team total on today's main slate. Balt will take on the rookie Hayden Birdsong, who lets up a 43.2% fly-ball rate and 1.58 home runs per nine innings. Building a Baltimore stack should almost always start with Anthony Santander ($3,700). You can build around him with either of Gunnar Henderson ($4,000) or Colton Cowser ($3,000), though I'm very inclined to snatch Emmanuel Rivera ($2,700) at his low salary. Rivera is projected to be the only pure righty in Baltimore's lineup, and that's the handedness Birdsong struggles against the most.
• New York Mets (4.70)
  • Francisco Lindor is out with a back injury, but there should still be some runs to go around for the Mets in their meeting with DJ Herz. Herz has been closer to exceptional this season than not with a 3.28 xERA, 3.58 SIERA, and 28.7% K%. So, why target the Mets here? Well, Herz is a fly-ball pitcher (43.7% FB%) who struggles with 1.93 home runs per nine innings on the road. That adds plenty of intrigue to Pete Alonso ($3,300), J.D. Martinez ($2,900), and Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) at their very attainable salaries.
• St. Louis Cardinals (4.86)
  • We typically don't come back to the Cardinals offense very much, as the team averages a trying 4.07 runs per game (25th) and no player on their squad averages double-digit FanDuel points. However, when a team is set to face Jake Woodford, the outlook is pretty. Woodford suffers with a 5.73 xERA, 4.90 SIERA, and 1.48 HR/9 through 30 1/3 innings pitched this season. His low 14.5% strikeout rate paints a more realistic and stabilized picture of his struggles. Every member of St. Louis' offense can be rostered at $3.1K or less tonight, so we'll perhaps want to get in on them if looking to obtain Skubal. The left-handed Brendan Donovan ($3,000) is an ideal starting point for any St. Louis stack.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.