3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 9/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+200)

I am starting today's homer picks with one from an early game (1:10 p.m. ET) as I like Matt Olson to go deep today at Great American Ball Park.

Olson gets a juicy matchup with righty Julian Aguiar. In 47 Triple-A innings this season, Aguiar posted just meh numbers, including a 4.94 xFIP. As you'd expect, he's not finding much success in The Show, allowing a 48.3% fly-ball rate with a lowly 12.6% K rate. In all, he's surrendered 1.95 taters per nine innings and registered a 5.59 SIERA.

Throwing Aguiar at the launching pad that is GABP against a lefty masher like Olson is asking for a homer.

Olson has mostly underwhelmed this year after a sparkling 2023 campaign. He has, however, picked things up over the second half, producing a .366 wOBA in that time with 13 home runs in 244 plate appearances. Olson hit 13 homers in 398 plate appearances in the first half.

While these +200 odds are pretty short, Olson checks a lot of boxes today.

Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Tobias Myers has been solid in his rookie season (4.02 SIERA) for the Milwaukee Brewers, but he is a fly-ball pitcher, particularly against right-handed hitters.

In righty-righty matchups, Myers has given up a 42.8% fly-ball rate. He's also been worse at home, permitting a 37.5% hard-hit rate and 1.47 homers per nine in Milwaukee, compared to a 27.0% hard-hit rate and 1.11 jacks per nine on the road.

Christian Walker can take advantage of this matchup.

Walker has become one of the best right-handed sluggers in the game. Since the start of 2022, he's popped 95 dingers and posted a .350 wOBA. He's also thrived versus righties, recording a .361 wOBA and 48.3% fly-ball rate in the split this season.

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Let's get this out of the way -- the wind is blowing in from right today at Wrigley Field. That should make it tough on lefty batters to go yard.

Fortunately, the Chicago Cubs will see southpaw Patrick Corbin, pushing us toward Chicago's right-handed sticks.

Corbin has been slightly better this season than in previous years, but he's still not very good, pitching to a 4.39 SIERA. Righties have hammered him to the tune of a .373 wOBA and 1.44 homers per nine. Away from home against right-handers, Corbin has allowed a .413 wOBA.

Isaac Paredes mauls left-handers. In the split this season, he's got a .382 wOBA and 41.5% fly-ball rate. He's an enticing homer pick at +440 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.