Premier League Betting: Best Bets and Player Props for Matchweek 5

The English Premier League is off and running for the 2024-25 campaign.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

Premier League Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Matchweek 5

Chelsea at West Ham (7:30 a.m. ET Saturday)

Cole Palmer to Score or Assist (-120)

Palmer was a revelation last season for the Blues, racking up 22 goals and 11 assists in 29 EPL starts. He was aided by nine penalties, but he went nine-for-nine from the spot in league play, which is mighty impressive.

Penalty duties is part of why he's so appealing in the goal-or-assist market -- as is the fact he handles some corners and free kicks. It all adds up to Palmer checking just about every box we could ask for in this market, so I'm happy to take him at -120 to score or assist Saturday at West Ham.

West Ham haven't been good defensively thus far, allowing the fourth-most expected goals (xG) in the league through four rounds (7.8), per FBRef's xG model. While the schedule hasn't been kind to West Ham (matches versus City and Villa), they also conceded 1.3 xG to Palace and 1.5 xG to Fulham.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have netted at least one goal in every match they've played this year (in all competitions) aside from the season-opener versus City. They should be able to create chances at West Ham, and Palmer -- as always -- will likely be a central figure in the Blues' attack.

Newcastle United at Fulham (10 a.m. ET Saturday)

Fulham Moneyline (+190)

Going by results, it's been a stellar start to the campaign for Newcastle as the Magpies have taken 10 points from their first four matches. Through that same results-based lens, it's been only a meh start for Fulham, with the Cottagers tallying five points thus far.

The xG numbers paint a different picture.

Newcastle have been pretty fortunate. Their xG differential is -1.3, and they've conceded the seventh-most xG (6.5).

Fulham have been superb defensively, permitting the fourth-fewest xG (4.2), and have been decent enough going forward (4.6 xG). Through two home matches, Fulham are playing tough at Craven Cottage, amassing 3.3 xG while giving up just 1.4 xG.

Newcastle are due for a downturn in results if they keep performing as they have been, and Craven Cottage is a tough place to go. In my eyes, the Cottagers have a better shot to win than this +190 line implies, and I also don't mind Fulham over 1.5 goals at +122.

Arsenal at Manchester City (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Manchester City Moneyline (-130)

Without a doubt, the headline match of the weekend is Sunday's clash between Arsenal and Manchester City at the Etihad. Despite it being just Matchweek 5, it's not over the top to say this has the potential to be one of the pivotal matches of the campaign.

Manchester City (-110 odds to win the Premier League) and Arsenal (+155) are the two title favorites. No other team is shorter than +700. There's a long way to go, but a win for either side would be significant in the title race.

Arsenal are an outstanding team, and what they did defensively in two matches versus City last year, keeping a clean sheet in both, is wildly impressive. Holding this Man City group without a goal -- and to just 1.5 combined xG -- over 180 minutes seems impossible.

But Pep Guardiola and City have had an offseason to game plan for how to attack the Gunners' elite defense, and it must be said that City's defense was just as lights out in the pair of matchups in 2023-24, holding Arsenal to only one goal and a combined 1.1 xG over the two matches.

Arsenal are without midfield maestro Martin Odegaard due to injury, and Kevin De Bruyne may be sidelined for City after coming off early midweek versus Inter in the Champions League. That's a blow for both sides, but as great as KDB is -- for me, best player in the league for a while now -- I think the absence of Odegaard damages Arsenal more than the potential absence of De Bruyne does City.

City have scored multiple goals in each of their four EPL matches thus far. They've accumulated 8.4 xG over just their last three league outings. In short, they're rolling in EPL play.

While breaking down this Arsenal defense is a tall task, I'm banking on City to find a way, and I'm not sure an Odegaard-less Gunners attack can punch back.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.