FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 1/17/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Kyrie Irving ($10,300) -- Kyrie Irving has been on fire of late, averaging 37.4 points and 60.1 FanDuel points (FP) over his last five games. A slate-high 243.5 over/under hints towards a favorable game environment to support his recent play, but there is a chance Luka Doncic ($12,000) returns from a three-game absence. Luka put up 60 FP in both previous matchups against the Los Angeles Lakers, and he boasts numberFire's highest projection (61.2). Both are in play, but Irving becomes a priority if Doncic is ruled out again.

Mike Conley ($5,700) -- Mike Conley's fantasy production ebbs and flows, but he's in a good spot tonight against the Detroit Pistons -- a team down at No. 28 in defensive rating and has allowed the most FP to PGs. Don't let the Minnesota Timberwolves' status as a 12-point favorite scare you off the veteran. He put up 28.8 FP in just 20 minutes when they blew out Portland last week.

Payton Pritchard ($4,800) -- Payton Pritchard has netted 25 FP eight times this season. Six of those eight games were decided by double figures while the average margin of victory was 22.1 points. The bench man feasts during garbage time -- a good omen for his fantasy prospects tonight considering the Boston Celtics are 16-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs. Add in that, per FantasyPros, San Antonio allows the fourth-most FP to PGs, and it's easy to see his appeal at $4.8K.

Others to Consider

Donovan Mitchell ($10,500) -- Guards have shredded the Milwaukee Bucks all season, so I'm more than willing to get to Donovan Mitchell tonight. Mitchell has had some monster performances in recent outings, and he posted 61.7 FP in an earlier matchup between the division rivals. He could see even more work if Caris LeVert (questionable) sat, but that'd also put Craig Porter Jr. ($4,900) on the radar. Per RotoGrinders Court IQ, Porter averaged 32.6 FP and a 24% usage rate in two games sans LeVert and Darius Garland (out). A healthy 236.5 over/under makes this a game to target.

Jrue Holiday ($7,100) -- Jrue Holiday is questionable, but he's a strong midrange option if active. Boston has a slate-high 126.75 implied total, and the Spurs are bottom-five in FP allowed to both guard spots. numberFire projects Holiday for 37.1 FP making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (as of Wednesday afternoon). Derrick White ($7,400) is also questionable here -- so if one sits, the other would be a priority play in a Charmin ultra soft matchup.

Wings

Top Plays

Paolo Banchero ($9,200) -- With Franz Wagner and Gary Harris sidelined the last seven games, Paolo Banchero's usage rate has spiked to 36.2%. He's averaged 48.5 FP over that span while consistently flirting with 40 minutes of action. That usage could pay dividends tonight against an Atlanta Hawks team that's 27th in defensive rating and bottom-six in FP allowed to both forward spots.

Khris Middleton ($7,100) -- Khris Middleton exceeded 30 minutes nine times over the last month. He's averaged 37.4 FP in such outings. The vet is coming off three days' rest, so expect a full workload tonight. The Cleveland Cavaliers have strong season-long defensive numbers, but they've dropped to ninth in defensive rating over the last 15 games, during which they allowed the 10th-most FP to SFs.

Joe Ingles ($3,900) -- Remember when I said the Hawks were bottom-six in FP allowed to forwards? Well, they also give up the sixth-most FP to SGs, so the multi-positional Joe Ingles couldn't ask for a better matchup. Ingles has played 20 minutes in both games since returning from injury, netting 30.0 and 12.2 FP a piece. He hovered around a 23% usage rate in those games -- plenty high enough to provide value at a $3.9K salary.

Others to Consider

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400) -- Although Bogdan Bogdanovic is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season, he put up 32.3 and 35.1 FP in two previous matchups with the Orlando Magic. Prior to Monday's stinker, Bogdanovic had averaged 30.1 FP over a six-game stretch. I don't want too much exposure with Atlanta given the Magic's third-rated D, but Bogdan's a nice midrange option to pair with Paolo-centric lineups.

Jaden McDaniels ($4,800) -- Detroit is a team you want to play values against, so it's easy to get to Jaden McDaniels as a salary-saver. McDaniels is fresh off a 26.8-FP outing, and he's averaged 32.2 minutes over his last 15. As of Wednesday afternoon, McDaniels carries a 23.8-FP numberFire projection -- the highest of any sub-$5K salary player and good for the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Bigs

Top Plays

Anthony Davis ($11,400) -- There are several quality big men on tonight's slate, but it's still worthwhile to build around Anthony Davis. AD is a slate-breaker -- we know that -- but his matchup tonight is downright mouthwatering. Not only does this Lakers-Mavericks clash feature the slate's highest over/under, but the Dallas Mavericks have given up the sixth-most points and fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers. Christian Wood ($5,500) benefits from the same game environment as AD, and he comes at half the salary. While Wood's minutes tend to fluctuate, he's put up 24 FP in five of his last six games.

Zion Williamson ($7,900) -- Zion Williamson is coming off consecutive 30-point outings, and a date with the Charlotte Hornets -- bottom-10 in points allowed to both forward spots -- gives him a good shot to make it three straight. Zion will need to do more than score to provide value at this salary, so it helps that the Hornets are 27th in rebound rate. That'd partially explain why they've allowed the fourth-most FP to PFs.

Goga Bitadze ($5,900) -- The Hawks have allowed the fifth-most FP to centers this season, so there's logic in targeting Orlando's bigs. Over a seven-game stretch, Goga Bitadze has averaged 24.1 FP in 23.8 minutes a night. He remained in the starting lineup even with Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,600) back in the rotation, so his role isn't going away. Carter himself is another low-salary option. He returned from a five-game absence and dropped 23.6 FP on Monday, but there is concern about a minute restriction.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200) -- The Cavaliers may be top-10 in defensive rating and FP allowed to bigs, but that doesn't seem to matter to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's gone for 60 FP in three straight matchups, including a 60.7-FP performance just last month. Still, it's hard to fit Giannis with Davis, and I prefer AD's matchup at a lower salary.

Jarrett Allen ($8,700) -- Jarrett Allen exploded for 59.4 FP when he faced the Bucks at the end of December, and his recent play keeps another ceiling game on the table tonight. The big man's gone for at least 49 FP in six of his last nine games, averaging 50.1 over that span. He's a quality midrange play and fits in well if you're stacking Cavs-Bucks, but there are a lot of high-salary stars on tonight's slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.