2 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Warriors at Mavericks

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Golden State Warriors face the Dallas Mavericks?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Warriors at Mavericks Betting Picks

Under 233 Points (-110)

The over has been a trend for both the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks as it's 8-2 in each team's past 10 games. However, I'm going against the grain by backing the under.

First off, DRatings has this total reaching only 226.4 points. We can lean into Dallas' offense coming up short as the unit will be without Anthony Davis (adductor) and Dereck Lively (ankle) while PJ Washington (ankle) is questionable.

The Mavs' shot distributions are already concerning, touting the 12th-lowest mark around the rim and the 10th-lowest mark from three-point land (per Dunks & Threes). While the Mavericks boast the seventh-best offensive rating, this is bound to come down with Luka Doncic out of the fold, and Davis could be out for multiple weeks.

In general, Dallas has typically leaned on its paint attack with the 13th-most points in the paint per game and 8th-fewest three-point shots per game. Both categories should keep up after swapping Luka for Davis. With that said, Golden State surrenders the lowest shot distribution around the rim and the second-fewest points in the paint per game. "Fire Nico" chants will likely ring through the Mavs arena with a tough offensive showing ahead.

Dallas' saving grace will likely be its defense as it's equipped to slow down the Warriors' shooting. Per usual, Golden State is in love with the three-ball by taking the third-most attempts while making the fourth-most threes per game. This is paired with the third-highest three-point shot distribution.

The Mavs boast a stingy perimeter defense, allowing the 3rd-lowest three-point shot distribution, the 6th-fewest attempts per game, and the 10th-fewest makes per contest.

Neither of these teams play at a blistering pace, for Dallas has 15th-quickest pace and Golden State is 16th. The potential pace isn't worrying me, and both defenses have favorable matchups.

Jimmy Butler Over 19.5 Points (-115)

The Mavericks have a sound perimeter defense, but the same can not be said about their interior. They allow the 9th-most points in the paint per game and the 11th-highest shot distribution around the rim.

Granted, this area should eventually improve as Davis and Lively has the makings of an elite frontcourt defense. However, both players are out for this game, which still makes these concerning numbers relevant.

The trick is finding which Warrior can flourish in this area. The newly-acquired Jimmy Butler has had his wish come true through two games, enjoying a prominent role in an offense. He sports a 26.5% usage rate through two appearances compared to 21.1% when playing for the Miami Heat.

It's led to good production as Butler is averaging 22.5 PPG in a Warrior uniform. Granted, it's a small two-game sample size, but I like his matchup tonight.

Butler brings a stark contrast to this offense, taking 69.7% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim. He hasn't made one three with Golden State yet, averaging 1.5 three-point shots per game through two outings. Plus, he's shooting a measly 33.3% on threes this season. Don't expect Butler's game to drastically alter with a change scenery.

If he's active, Washington could be Butler's primary defender, and he has an impressive 112.8 defensive rating. Kessler Edwards could fill in for Washington at the four, though, and that brings a favorable matchup for Butler due to Edwards' alarming 131.3 defensive rating.

For a player that loves to get in the painted area, this is an excellent matchup for Butler. He's had the volume for over 19.5 points in his first two games with the Warriors, and the potential matchup with Edwards makes this even more promising.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.