Duke vs Louisville Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament Championship

The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (29-3, 19-1 ACC) will aim to claim the ACC championship and a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament when they face off with the No. 2 Louisville Cardinals (26-6, 18-2 ACC) on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Duke vs. Louisville Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 15, 2025
• Game time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Duke vs. Louisville Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Duke win (66.4%)

Take a look at these betting insights and trends before you wager on Saturday's Duke-Louisville spread (Duke -5.5) or over/under (144.5 points).

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Duke vs. Louisville: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Duke is 21-11-0 ATS this season.
• Louisville has won 19 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 13 times.
• When the spread is set as 5.5 or more this season, Duke (19-11) covers a higher percentage of those games when it is the favorite (63.3%) than Louisville (1-1) does as the underdog (50%).
• The Blue Devils have a worse record against the spread in home games (11-6-0) than they do on the road (9-2-0).
• This year, the Cardinals are 8-9-0 at home against the spread (.471 winning percentage). Away, they are 9-2-0 ATS (.818).
• Duke has 14 wins against the spread in 21 conference games this season.
• Louisville has 14 wins against the spread in 21 ACC games this year.

Duke vs. Louisville: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Duke has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 30 games this year and has walked away with the win 27 times (90%) in those games.
• This year, the Blue Devils have won 27 of 29 games when listed as at least -240 or better on the moneyline.
• Louisville has won 60% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (3-2).
• The Cardinals have played as a moneyline underdog of +195 or longer in just two games this season, which they lost both.
• Duke has an implied victory probability of 70.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Duke vs. Louisville Head-to-Head Comparison

• Duke's +693 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 21.7 points per game) is a result of scoring 83.3 points per game (12th in college basketball) while giving up 61.6 per outing (sixth in college basketball).
• Cooper Flagg is 47th in the country with a team-leading 18.9 points per game.
• Louisville puts up 79.2 points per game (54th in college basketball) while giving up 68.7 per contest (76th in college basketball). It has a +337 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 10.5 points per game.
• Chucky Hepburn leads Louisville, scoring 16.4 points per game (159th in college basketball).
• The Blue Devils rank 15th in the country at 36.3 rebounds per game. That's 9.5 more than the 26.8 their opponents average.
• Flagg is 107th in college basketball action with 7.5 rebounds per game to lead the Blue Devils.
• The Cardinals win the rebound battle by 4.9 boards on average. They record 34.9 rebounds per game, 38th in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 30.
• J'Vonne Hadley's 7.3 rebounds per game lead the Cardinals and rank 130th in college basketball.
• Duke ranks first in college basketball with 110.9 points scored per 100 possessions, and fourth in college basketball defensively with 82 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Cardinals average 101.6 points per 100 possessions on offense (54th in college basketball), and allow 88.1 points per 100 possessions (53rd in college basketball).

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