Will the New England Patriots Thrive With Drake Maye in 2025?

Following back-to-back 4-13 seasons, there hasn't been a lot of optimism coming out of Foxboro the last couple of years, and the glory days of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick continue to fade further and further into the rearview mirror.

But if there's one glimmer of hope, it's been quarterback Drake Maye, who showed signs of living up to his potential after being taken by the New England Patriots as the No. 3 overall pick in last year's NFL Draft.

Now paired with new head coach Mike Vrabel and a much more experienced coaching staff than the one that flopped in 2024, will Maye be able to finally kickstart a Patriots rebuild that's been stuck in neutral (reverse?) ever since Brady left? Or is this still a bridge too far playing on a roster badly in need of upgrades pretty much across the board?

Let's break down New England's outlook heading into 2025.

Key Issues the Patriots Need to Address

Before we even get to Maye, it makes sense to highlight the laundry list of areas the Patriots need to address in order to take the next step forward.

There's no sugarcoating it; New England struggled on both sides of the ball in 2024.

The Pats finished the regular season ranked 27th in schedule-adjusted offense, struggling at both passing (28th) and rushing (22nd).

The defense, still a strength even in Belichick's final season, completely fell off in Jerod Mayo's lone campaign at the helm, finishing 30th in adjusted defense with poor marks against both the pass (30th) and run (19th).

More specifically on offense, the o-line was a glaring weakness. In PFF's final 2024 offensive line rankings, they listed New England's unit 32nd, giving the unit the second-worst pass blocking grade (52.3) and worst run blocking grade (45.6). Similarly, ESPN ranked the Patriots 31st in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block win rate.

The lack of a true No. 1 wide receiver remains a well-documented issue for the Pats, as well. Tight end Hunter Henry ended up leading the team in receiving yards (674), followed by wideouts Demario Douglas (621) and Kayshon Boutte (589). Across Maye's 10 full starts, Henry and Douglas averaged 1.63 and 1.80 yards per route run (via NFL Next Gen Stats), respectively, and should continue to function as key contributors in 2025 -- but the Pats are still missing that game-changing pass catcher.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for New England's offense was the absence of production from rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, who totaled 99 receiving yards combined. As the 37th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Polk's performance was especially egregious, finishing last among 118 wide receivers (minimum 30 targets) in PFF's receiving grade (45.4).

New England badly needs to beef up the offensive line and wide receiving corps for Maye to improve -- let alone thrive.

Defensively, New England has a potential star cornerback in Christian Gonzalez, but the pass rush was practically nonexistent. The defense concluded the season with the NFL's fewest sacks (28) and fourth-worst pressure rate. As the Philadelphia Eagles firmly reminded everyone in the Super Bowl, a lethal pass rush can topple even the best QBs, so New England once again have a gaping roster hole to fill.

Considering all of the above, it's pretty easy to see why this team won only four games in 2024. But unlike most bad teams, they could have their answer at quarterback in Maye, meaning they have the most important piece of the puzzle to pull themselves out of the gutter.

Drake Maye's Rookie Campaign

Given everything that was working against him, Maye's raw numbers were generally unremarkable, wrapping up his rookie campaign with 2,276 pass yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

But we can get a better indication of his potential if we compare his passing efficiency metrics to Jacoby Brissett, who opened the season as the Pats' starter. For the purposes of this comparison, we'll look at the 5 weeks Brissett started versus Maye's 11 starts (excluding a cameo in Week 18) to account for each getting a typical week of preparation as the starter.

Even when acknowledging the difference in sample sizes, Maye has the clear advantage across all the above metrics, including expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE).

As for how this all played out, excluding starts that were significantly shortened by injury, Brissett averaged 149.5 passing yards and 0.5 touchdowns over 4 games while Maye averaged 223.1 yards and 1.5 TDs across 10.

And then there's Maye's rushing ability. In the same sample of full games, Brissett tacked on just 3.0 carries and 12.8 rushing yards per game (most of which came in one start), whereas Maye averaged 4.9 rushes and 36.3 yards per game.

While Maye's metrics don't leap off the page as a whole, the fact he outperformed a veteran as a rookie and didn't completely collapse behind arguably the league's worst offensive line and worst receiving room has to be considered a big win.

Considering he did so while showing positive marks in both CPOE and passing success rate has to be incredibly encouraging, as well. Among 47 quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks last season, Maye finished inside the top 10 in CPOE and the top 20 in success rate, finishing firmly above the league average in both metrics.

Throw in his dual-threat abilities, and it becomes clear why the Patriots feel like they've found their franchise quarterback.

Patriots' 2025 Outlook

With the Patriots coming off two straight four-win seasons and moving on to their third coach in three years, the initial Super Bowl LX odds heading into the offseason show the team in a tie for the fourth-longest odds to win the big game (+14000), which gives us a pretty clear indicator of where they stand prior to free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft.

While no one is expecting New England to magically turn into a Super Bowl contender overnight, they could make some significant strides with the right moves over the coming months. In addition to having the fourth overall pick in the upcoming draft, Spotrac shows them having by far the most available salary cap space ($123.7 million).

FanDuel Research's Austin Swaim released his latest 2025 NFL Round 1 Mock Draft and predicts the Pats to land CB/WR Travis Hunter from Colorado. While the 2024 Heisman winner might only partially fill a need if he's utilized as a part-time wideout, he's the type of high-end talent this roster desperately needs.

If Hunter isn't available, EDGE Abdul Carter and OT Will Campbell are others who have been linked to the Pats in mocks, or it's possible they trade back to accumulate more picks. In any case, following a lackluster 2024 draft class outside of Maye, New England's front office needs to hit on more picks this time around.

Tee Higgins is the far and away the top wide receiver available in free agency, and considering New England's plethora of cap space, he would be a no-brainer solution to their No. 1 wideout problem. If they're unable to pry him away from the Cincinnati Bengals and convince him to be part of a rebuild, Chris Godwin could be a solid consolation prize, or they could look to the trade market. Of course, beefing up the o-line will be paramount, as well, and top free agent tackles like Ronnie Stanley or Cam Robinson ought to be targets.

But at the end of the day, even smaller upgrades across this roster -- including the defense -- could help change the team's fortunes moving forward.

Regarding the coaching staff, we ultimately don't know how the Mike Vrabel era will play out in New England, but before they sign a single new player, this staff -- at least on paper -- has to feel like a net positive over the previous regime.

In addition to Jerod Mayo being a first-time head coach last season, the entire staff was filled with coaches doing their respective roles for the first time. In contrast, Vrabel's staff is flush with experience, and while that doesn't necessarily guarantee success, it looks better than the alternative.

Even offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who might seem like an unexciting retread following another failed head coaching stint, helped Mac Jones to easily his best NFL season to date as a rookie, which is an encouraging sign for Maye's development.

Ultimately, New England has a lot of work to do, but with Maye leading the way, there's a clear path toward taking a leap next season. From a betting perspective, there could be a buying opportunity when win total odds are available, as the Pats could have a low line again (4.5 wins in 2024). In fantasy football, particularly if Maye is surrounded by an improved offensive line and upgraded weapons, he could be a breakout candidate.

Tom Brady's not walking through that door, but Maye presents the franchise's best chance in years to become a contender again. While we'll have to see if Vrabel and friends are up to the task to build around him, we should be cautiously optimistic that this team will be much improved in 2025.

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