The unanimous pick across every outlet today. Racing Post confirm England "sailed through World Cup qualifying without conceding a goal and should be too strong for Croatia." Covers predict "England to bully Croatia via physicality." BettorsInsider note "England's qualifying dominance — eight wins from eight with zero goals conceded — has established them as serious contenders under Tuchel." Dimers model gives England a 57.9% win probability. Croatia have lost two straight warm-ups and CBS Sports confirm "their age has really started to show" with Modrić at 40. The double chance (England or draw) sits at 82% — England ML at -150 is the anchor bet of the day.

SportsLine's Jon Eimer is direct: "leaning Under 2.5 total goals." Fox Sports agree: "Bet on a first half draw and under 2.5 goals to be scored." Squawka's approach is correlated: "Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score No for a tighter, correlated play on a controlled opener." The statistical backing is overwhelming: the Under has hit in 5 of England's last 6 matches and 5 of the last 6 England games have featured fewer than 3 goals total. Racing Post confirm "five of England's last six games have featured fewer than three goals." SportsLine note England "hasn't played an international game that totaled three goals since Oct. 14." The Dimers model confirms a 54.4% probability the Under hits. At -144, this is the most statistically grounded bet on the card.

Fox Sports confirm Kane at +125 on their FanDuel page — the market's unanimous leader for this fixture. Oddschecker are explicit: "Harry Kane is the obvious anytime goalscorer pick. He has found the net in seven of his last nine outings." Racing Post confirm he "scored a superb header in the warm-up win over New Zealand and is likely to waste no time in scoring at a third successive World Cup." Compare.bet note Kane "averaged a goal per match in qualifying and remains the focal point in attack. Croatia conceded in half their qualifying games and can struggle with swift movement between the lines." At +125 for a 46.44% market leader who leads England's attack and takes their penalties, Kane anytime is the standout player prop on today's slate.

RotoWire make BTSNTS their explicit best bet at -130: "England have allowed just five goals in their last 15 matches dating back to November 2024, and have kept 10 clean sheets since qualifying began. A defense filled with elite Premier League talent, facing a Croatian attack that has conceded in six straight matches, sets this up firmly in England's favour. A clean sheet in the opener would not be a surprise at all." Squawka's approach combines it directly with Under 2.5 and England to win. The key stat: Both Teams to Score has FAILED in 9 of England's last 10 matches — the most consistent trend on the entire card. RotoWire add that beyond Budimir, Croatia's attacking threat "is limited." At -130 for a market backed by the game's most dominant statistical trend, this is the strongest value on the four-bet card.

🔮 Score Prediction: England 2-0 Croatia

England 2-0 Croatia — Clean sheet, Kane scores

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📌 Tuchel's England Identity

England vs Croatia · Best Bets Summary · 4 PM ET · AT&T Stadium

What is the best bet for England vs Croatia today?

The unanimous expert pick is England ML at -150. Covers, Racing Post, BettorsInsider, CBS Sports and Squawka all back England to win. England have won all 10 of their last competitive matches without conceding — a 57.9% win probability per Dimers. The strongest correlated three-bet play is England ML + Under 2.5 goals + Kane anytime, which all fire in the same match scenario: England win 1-0 or 2-0 with Kane scoring. RotoWire's explicit best bet is Both Teams Not to Score at -130, backed by the fact BTS failed in 9 of England's last 10 games.

Will the Under 2.5 goals hit in England vs Croatia?

The expert and statistical consensus strongly supports the Under. The Under hit in 5 of England's last 6 matches. Five of England's last 6 games featured fewer than 3 goals. SportsLine's Jon Eimer is leaning Under 2.5 goals, Fox Sports recommend betting Under 2.5, and Squawka include it in their correlated play. The Dimers model gives a 54.4% probability to the Under. Croatia's physical style and both teams' defensive orientation in a high-stakes opener supports a tight, controlled game. The Under at -144 is the second-strongest bet on the card.

What happened between England and Croatia at the 2018 World Cup?

Croatia beat England 2-1 after extra time in the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow. Kieran Trippier opened the scoring with a superb free kick, but goals from Ivan Perišić and Mario Mandžukić sent Croatia through to the final. England's most recent meeting was a 1-0 win in the Euro 2020 group stage at Wembley, with Raheem Sterling scoring the only goal. In six senior meetings overall, England have won four, Croatia one, and one was a draw.

What time is England vs Croatia and how can I watch?

England vs Croatia kicks off at 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday June 17, 2026 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (Dallas), Texas — home of the Dallas Cowboys, capacity 94,000. It airs on FOX in English and Telemundo in Spanish in the United States. In the UK it airs live on ITV1 at 9pm BST. Group L also includes Ghana and Panama. Thomas Tuchel's England are +700 to win the tournament — third favourites behind France and Spain.