ALL-TIME US OPEN WINNING SCORES AT SHINNECOCK HILLS

⚠️ The statistic that says everything: In the five previous US Opens at Shinnecock Hills, only 3 players out of 659 have broken par for a full championship. That's a 0.45% success rate. In 2018, the winner finished over par. In 2004, one Saturday round saw 28 players fail to break 80.

🏆 Expected Winning Score This Week

-1 to -2 Under Par

Covers confirm Scheffler leads this entire field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, adjusted scoring average, Par-4 scoring, and bogey avoidance in 2026 — the four metrics that matter most at Shinnecock. CBS Sports note he has finished in the top 7 in six of his last seven majors. The caveat: he's never played Shinnecock before, and CBS Sports' own expert picks him as the "star who won't win" — but no other player in the world has a higher statistical floor. If anyone is going to methodically grind Shinnecock into submission with patient, risk-averse iron play and elite course management, it's Scheffler. The story writes itself: he turns 30 on Sunday, the day of the final round, with the career Grand Slam on the line.

SI's Andy Nesbitt is unequivocal: "I saw Fitzpatrick's press conference on Monday afternoon and knew right then that he is going to win the 2026 US Open. He talked about the 2018 setup at Shinnecock and how he didn't think it was that bad — then spoke about the winds during his practice round and had a sparkle in his eye as he talked about how he 'chipped' a five-iron into the 155-yard par-3 11th." Covers confirm Fitzpatrick ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and second in the around-the-green metric across his past nine events — which includes three wins and two solo seconds. His odds shifted from +10000 to +1800-+2000 on current form. This is the player most likely to break par this week.

Covers describe Rahm as the "ball-striking and short-game wizard" who "finished T2 at the PGA Championship and has oodles of experience on links-style tracks that resemble the demands of Shinnecock." As the 2021 US Open champion, Rahm knows exactly how to manage a USGA course under pressure. Madknows note that Shinnecock rewards players with "serious touch" who can "skip a ball off a tight runoff with the right spin, or pitch uphill from a bare lie to an elevated green" — that description fits Rahm's game precisely. He returned to major contention at the PGA Championship in May 2026 with a runner-up finish and enters Shinnecock as a legitimate threat to break par for the week.

Coming off his second consecutive Masters title in 2026, McIlroy arrives at Shinnecock as the world's hottest major player. ESPN's Andy North confirms McIlroy is "first off the tee, second from tee-to-green and uses distance as a weapon." Shinnecock's wide fairways (averaging over 40 yards, per CBS Sports) reward that distance. The caveat CBS Sports raise is real — McIlroy ranks 125th in driving accuracy percentage this year, and the five-inch rough surrounding Shinnecock's fairways will punish any wild drives. ESPN's expert perspective is balanced: "He has struggled a bit with accuracy off the tee this year and that won't work at Shinnecock, but the fairways have some width and if the driver can get going, McIlroy will be in contention on Sunday." He's been the most motivated player in golf since completing the slam at Augusta — breaking par at Shinnecock could be the crown jewel.

No player in this field carries more emotional and tactical connection to Shinnecock Hills than Fleetwood. In the 2018 US Open final round, he shot a 63 — matching the lowest round ever recorded in US Open history — to nearly catch Brooks Koepka. Golf.com confirm he has "six top 10s this season" and call him "a superb iron player who knows how to play in the wind." PrizePicks note that Shinnecock's links-style setup is "more of an Open you'd see over in the United Kingdom, especially with the wind coming off the Atlantic Ocean and bay and the deep fescue rough that you'd see in Scotland" — which describes Fleetwood's entire career habitat. The one caveat Covers raise is that he has "only a single Top 20 in major championships since the beginning of the 2025 season." But if anyone in this field is going to match or beat par for four rounds at Shinnecock, it's the Englishman who nearly did it in 63 shots on one afternoon in 2018.

The traits required to break par at Shinnecock Hills

2026 US Open — 5 Most Likely to Break Par · Shinnecock Hills

How rare is it to break par at Shinnecock Hills in the US Open?

Extremely rare. In the five previous US Opens at Shinnecock Hills, only 3 players out of 659 finishers have broken par for a full championship — a 0.45% rate. In 2018, the winner Brooks Koepka finished at +1 over par. In 2004, only Retief Goosen (-4) and Phil Mickelson (-2) finished under par for the week. On one Saturday in 2004, not a single player broke par and 28 players failed to break 80. CBS Sports' expert prediction for 2026: "the grand total of golfers to break par in a US Open at Shinnecock will only move to four on Sunday evening."

What is the expected winning score at the 2026 US Open?

CBS Sports experts predict a winning score of 279 (-1), with a Sunday score of 70 (even par). The wind forecast — gusts to 30 mph on Thursday and Saturday — will make scoring extremely difficult, particularly in the opening round. Golf Channel confirm winds will blow steadily between 15-20 mph throughout the week, with Thursday being the hardest day. Adam Scott said: "Generally, for a very hard golf course 5 to 10 under is a really good test — I would think with the standard today the best player is going to beat par." At Shinnecock, even beating par by one shot may be enough to win.

What happened at the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock to make it so controversial?

On Saturday 2018, the USGA's pin placements combined with baked greens and strong winds made the course nearly unplayable. Tony Finau and Daniel Berger started the final round eleven shots behind the leader and wound up tied for the lead. The only three players who broke par that Saturday finished before the leaders teed off. Phil Mickelson infamously swatted a moving golf ball on the 13th green in protest. The USGA has confirmed they will keep the greens heavily hydrated in 2026 to avoid a repeat — but the wind forecast is just as menacing.

Why is Matt Fitzpatrick such a strong pick for Shinnecock in 2026?

Fitzpatrick ranks second in this entire field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and second in the around-the-green metric across his past nine events — which includes three wins and two solo-second finishes. SI's Andy Nesbitt picked him to win based on his press conference alone, noting Fitzpatrick spoke with "a sparkle in his eye" about the wind conditions during his practice round. His odds have shifted from +10000 to +1800-+2000 on current form. He is the reigning US Open champion (Oakmont 2022) and among the best ball strikers in the world right now.

What is the course setup for the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock?

Shinnecock Hills plays at 7,434 yards at a par of 70, featuring two par 5s, four par 3s and 12 par 4s. The fairways will be left at full width (averaging over 40 yards wide) rather than being pinched in. The greens will start just above 11 on the stimpmeter — the slowest at a US Open in a very long time (Oakmont in 2025 started at 15.5). The USGA is keeping the greens hydrated to avoid the 2004 and 2018 disasters. But the wind — blowing steadily between 15-20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph — is the primary defense of the golf course, not the setup.