Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 16

With only nine games on the main slate and with some of those having low totals, the discourse around Week 16 gets a bit interesting.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 16 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Matchup: vs. Arizona Cardinals

I think there's one standout quarterback on the slate, and it's Justin Fields.

Fields gets a matchup with the Cardinals, who rank 31st in adjusted pass defense via numberFire's metrics.

In five games against bottom-eight pass defense, Fields has averaged 220.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns as a passer and 10.8 carries, 56.2 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns as a rusher.

FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Bears at +950 to lead Sunday teams in scoring, fourth-best among all teams.

Geno Smith,Seattle Seahawks

FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Matchup: at Tennessee Titans

If not going with Fields, we can easily justify saving salary with someone like Geno Smith, who gets a great matchup against a Titans team that is 27th against the pass, according to numberFire.

In four games against bottom-eight pass defenses, Smith has taken advantage.

He has averaged 309.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in four matchups.

He was full in practice by Wednesday this week already, so the arrow is up for Geno.

Others to Consider

Dak Prescott ($8,500 at MIA) - Faces a top-3 pass D and moving outdoors but highest total of the week.

Kyler Murray ($7,600 at CHI) - Has largely faced tough pass D's but back-and-forth game is possible.

Baker Mayfield ($7,300 vs. JAC) - Mid-tier pass D matchup, and Mayfield has multiple stack candidates.

Running Backs

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Matchup: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Few backs have a better workload than what Rachaad White possesses within the Buccaneers' offense.

The Jaguars rank 26th in adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics, and White has played at least 80.6% of Tampa Bay's snaps in five straight games.

In that five-game stretch, he's averaged 109.6 scrimmage yards while holding a robust 35.9% red zone opportunity share on the full season.

While he hasn't scored both on the ground and through the air in the same game this season, there's a FanDuel Christmas Special prop for White to do that (+1300) in case you're big into White this weekend.

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Matchup: vs. Detroit Lions

Ty Chandler had a great role last week without Alexander Mattison, and the team has similar plans for him again this week.

Chandler had an 80.6% snap rate last week and handled 23 carries and 4 targets for 157 scrimmage yards.

He also handled 3 of 4 red zone carries and 1 of 3 red zone targets for a total red zone opportunity share of 57.1%.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Matchup: vs. Green Bay Packers

Chuba Hubbard has a plus matchup this week against the Packers, and his recent role shift has led to some nice results.

Hubbard has had single-game snap rates of 64.2%, 63.8%, 76.9%, and 74.6% over his past four games.

In that split, he's averaged 98.8 scrimmage yards along with a fantastic 55.6% total red zone opportunity share.

It's a good role and matchup for a sub-$6,500 salary.

Others to Consider

De'Von Achane ($7,500 vs. DAL) - Running behind Raheem Mostert but an elite 52.9% opportunity per snap rate.

Bijan Robinson ($7,100 vs. IND) - Still a 58.8% snap rate last week, and fast game versus a bad rush D.

Aaron Jones ($6,700 at CAR) - Panthers' run D has been better lately, but Jones should see extended work after a week back already.

Devin Singletary ($6,200 vs. CLE) - Tough matchup but fresh off of a 75.0% snap rate against the Titans.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Salary: $8,600
Matchup: at Minnesota Vikings

Since a Week 9 bye, Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a 28.1% target share (9.2 targets per game) for 85.0 yards per game.

He's also averaged 2.7 downfield targets per game and 2.2 red zone targets per game (a 44.8% red zone target share with also a 27.3% end zone target share).

The Vikings have faced a high rate of targets per route to receivers (28th in the NFL), and they're 24th in yards per route run by receivers.

The Lions (+750) trail only the Dolphins (+700) in top-scoring team odds on Sunday.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Matchup: at Tennessee Titans

The building blocks are there for an eruption game from D.K. Metcalf.

In four games with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, and Metcalf healthy since the team's bye, Metcalf is rocking with a 28.6% target share.

He's averaged 137.7 air yards per game (a 48.3% air yards share) with a 13.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in this stretch.

Despite the great work, he's underperforming substantially with a -14.0% catch rate over expectation (CROE).

The Titans are 28th in yards per route run and 30th in CROE allowed to wideouts while also funneling a high rate of targets per route (30th) to receivers.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $6,200
Matchup: vs. Indianapolis Colts

This game should have the fastest combined pace on the main slate, per my numbers, and that's a plus.

The team's shift back to Taylor Heinicke shouldn't change too much in terms of efficiency (Heinicke has some promising splits through 79 drop backs, at least), and they've shown the tendency to throw a bit more with him under center.

Either way, London has a 23.6% target per route rate with a 2.11 yards per route run number as well. Both of those are well above the position average. The salary is down because of his last game, yet he recently showed 172-yard upside.

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $5,400
Matchup: at Carolina Panthers

The Packers are dealing with a lot of injuries to their wide receiver corps, and that should open up volume for Dontayvion Wicks.

Wicks' routes have been 63.4% and 75.6% the past two games with extra work available in the offense, and in those games, he has averaged 6.5 targets per game (a 17.6% target share).

He's got a 9.8-yard aDOT in that split, as well.

Others to Consider

CeeDee Lamb ($9,400 at MIA) - Dolphins are 27th in CROE but 3rd overall in adjusted pass D.

D.J. Moore ($8,200 vs. ARI) - Faces the 32nd-ranked WR defense by CROE and 31st by yards per route run.

Chris Godwin ($6,900 vs. JAC) - Remains largest TD regression candidate among main slate WRs, per my numbers.

Calvin Ridley ($6,800 at TB) - Monitor Trevor Lawrence's status, but Ridley sets up great if the QB play is there.

Josh Downs ($6,000) and Alec Pierce ($5,300 at ATL) - Michael Pittman Jr. may vacate a 30.6% target share.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: at Chicago Bears

Volume funneled to Trey McBride without Marquise Brown last week, and that should continue.

McBride had 11 targets (a 28.9% target share with 3 of them being downfield looks) last week. He caught 10 of them for 102 yards.

In Kyler Murray's starts, McBride's single-game target shares have been 29.0%, 24.1%, 20.5%, 39.1%, and 28.9%.

McBride also has -2.8 touchdowns over expectation, per my model, so touchdown regression should be on the way.

To top it all off, he gets a phenomenal matchup against a Bears team that ranks 29th in catch rate over expectation to tight ends.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Salary: $6,000
Matchup: at Miami Dolphins

Jake Ferguson is a mid-salaried way to get exposure to the Cowboys and Dolphins game.

Ferguson has three straight games with a 20.0% target share or better: 20.0%, 20.5%, and 25.0%.

Miami is 23rd in catch rate over expectation allowed to tight ends this season.

Others to Consider

Sam LaPorta ($7,200 at MIN) - Second among main slate TEs in yards per game (53.4) with strong red zone role.

David Njoku ($6,600 at HOU) - Slate-best 17.9% total red zone opportunity share among TEs.

Tucker Kraft ($5,300 at CAR) - 77.0% route rate and 12.9% target share the past four games.

Defenses

Seattle Seahawks

FanDuel Salary: $3,500
Matchup: at TEN

The Seahawks' defense is showing life and just put up a good showing against the Eagles.

Ryan Tannehill has a 10.7% sack rate with subpar metrics across the board even when adjusting for opponents faced. Seattle needs to stay aggressive, and that should lead to a solid defensive performance against a QB with plenty of efficiency concerns.

Others to Consider

Washington Commanders ($3,800 at NYJ)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,700 vs. JAC)

Carolina Panthers ($3,200 vs. GB)

Be sure to check out all of the Week 16 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.