College Football: Ranking All 134 Schedules

College football is ripe with upset potential week after week, and schedule strength is an ever-important topic when determining the nation's top teams.

That'll remain a topic as the 12-team College Football Playoff begins in 2024.

The 12 teams in the tournament will feature the five conference champions (ranked highest by the selection committee) and seven at-large squads.

Entering the season, which teams have the toughest anticipated schedule?

To determine this, I ran through the 2024-25 season leveraging a blended model of my power rankings and some consensus rankings to determine which teams have the largest discrepancies between their "true strength" and their expected win total.

For example, Team A could have the adjusted power rating of a 7.5-win team if all 12 games were against NCAA-average opponents, and Team B could have the strength of a 6.5 win team.

If -- after projecting out each game this season -- both teams are expected to win 7.0 games, we can determine that Team B has the easier schedule (+0.5 wins due to their schedule strength)) than Team A (-0.5 wins due to their schedule strength).

College Football Schedule Strength Rankings

With that laid out, here is how each team's schedule rates out -- plus the current college football win totals odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

The 134 teams are sorted by the difference of my team strength expected wins and their wins after projecting out the season (i.e. accounting for each team's schedule).

Teams With Hard Schedules

Florida Gators

The Florida Gators are rating out with the hardest schedule via this method with a win gap of -2.8 based on their schedule.

Florida is returning 68% of their production on offense and defense combined, and my model has them ranked 33rd in the nation but expects them to win just 5.2 games despite that because of that lineup ahead.

Their win total at FanDuel Sportsbook is actually 4.5.

They do face an FCS opponent (Samford), but even with that, the rest of the slate is pretty relentless, including home games against the Texas A&M Aggies, the LSU Tigers, and the Mississippi Rebels.

Their road and neutral schedule? The Mississippi State Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers, (versus) Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns, and Florida State Seminoles.

In a more traditional sense, Florida's schedule overall features an average expected opponent point differential of +11.5, the strongest in the nation.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia also has a very tough draw and has a -2.4 win differential once you account for their opponents.

They're on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats, the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Texas Longhorns, and Ole Miss.

They're also hosting the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 and the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 12.

By average opponent point differential, the Bulldogs' schedule (+6.9) is seventh in the nation, but that's making a sizable impact on their expected win total.

Georgia's win total is set at 10.5.

USC Trojans

With the USC Trojans in the Big Ten, their first-year schedule is going to be quite relentless and full of travel.

They have a -2.4 win gap due to their schedule, and their opponents average an expected point differential of +10.4. -- second only to Florida (+11.5).

USC currently rates out as touchdown underdogs (in my model) in two home games: Penn State Nittany Lions (Week 7), and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Week 14).

They also are at a neutral venue versus LSU on September 1st.

Further, a Week 4 road game against the Michigan Wolverines awaits in Week 4.

On top of it all, they don't have an FCS opponent on the docket.

Although my model likes them as an 8.9-win team based on strength, their schedule knocks them down to 6.3 expected wins.

Next on the List

• Alabama Crimson Tide (-2.1 wins)
• Oklahoma Sooners (-1.9)
• Houston Cougars (-1.8)
• LSU Tigers (-1.8)
• Oregon Ducks (-1.7)
• UCLA Bruins (-1.7)
• Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.7)
• Texas Longhorns (-1.6)

Teams With Easy Schedules

Liberty Flames

The Liberty Flames have an elevated win total of 10.5 games, and they actually have +260 odds to finish the regular season undefeated (a nation-best).

Liberty went 13-1 last season (9-0 in Conference USA) but had a bottom-20 schedule by Sports-Reference's strength of schedule rating.

They return an average amount of production but have a very friendly schedule again this season.

In addition to the best schedule-adjusted win total gap in the nation, their opponents' average expected point differential of -15.1 is best in the country, too.

FIU Golden Panthers

The FIU Golden Panthers have a much lower win total (4.5) and rate out as a bottom-five team by power ratings in my model.

With that said, their Conference USA schedule is doing them a lot of favors.

They return 76% of their offensive production, but that offense ranked 126th in adjusted points per game in 2023.

My model has them at 4.8 wins, thanks to such a generous schedule.

Buffalo Bulls

The Buffalo Bulls also have a 4.5-win total at FanDuel Sportsbook but rate out a little better for me (120th) than FIU does (130th).

They have a ton of roster turnover and combine to rank 132nd in returning production (offense plus defense), via Bill Connelly.

They have a top-five schedule in terms of ease in various metrics.

Next on the List

• Toledo Rockets (+2.7 wins)
• Florida Atlantic Owls (+2.6)
• Central Michigan Chippewas (+2.5)
• Eastern Michigan Eagles (+2.5)
• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+2.5)

Power 5 Schools

• Washington State Cougars (+0.9)
• Oregon State Beavers (+0.8)
• Syracuse Orange (+0.6)
• SMU Mustangs (+0.3)
• North Carolina Tar Heels (+0.3)
• North Carolina State Wolfpack (+0.3)
• Virginia Tech Hokies (+0.2)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.