3 Best Bets to Win the 2026 Arlington Million Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• The Arlington Million is a deep, competitive Grade 1 despite its compact field. Proven veterans and emerging turf stars make this one of the summer’s toughest betting races.
• Distance and trip are the biggest handicapping questions. Several leading contenders must prove themselves at 1¼ miles or secure the right tactical position.
• Test Score: His Grade 1 class, tactical speed, and strong late finishes suggest he can thrive stretching out to 1¼ miles.
• Integration: Colonial Downs specialist has the consistency and ideal stalking style to capitalize with a better-timed move than last year.
• Mercante: A likely ground-saving trip and improving Grade 2 form make him an attractive long-shot value play in a balanced field.

The flagship race of the Colonial Downs summer meet happens Saturday, August 1: the Grade 1 Arlington Million. The 1 ¼-mile turf race began its life at Arlington International Racecourse in Arlington Heights, a suburb of Chicago, where it was the world’s first million-dollar race for Thoroughbreds. Arlington Park closed after the 2021 racing season, but the Million remains alive almost 700 miles southeast in New Kent, Virginia.

The 2026 Arlington Million field drew eight horses, all based in the United States. The 2025 winner, Shug McGaughey trainee Fort Washington, returns to defend his crown. All eyes are on Burnham Square, the up-and-comer in the turf division, who has proven his mettle at 1 ½ miles but needs to show he can shorten up. Other foes like Integration, Test Score, and Dresden Row make this a well-matched field of older turf horses.

The 12-race card Saturday at Colonial Downs features three graded races. The Million is accompanied by its two traditional graded-stakes co-features on the grass: the Beverly D. (G2) at 1 3/16 miles for fillies and mares on the lawn as well as the Secretariat (G2) for sophomores going 1 1/16 miles. There are five additional stakes races as well, a pair of turf sprints, two seven-furlong dirt sprints, and a one-mile dirt race, setting up for a full day of betting action. First post is at noon EDT, with the Arlington Million set to go at 5:52 p.m. as the 11th race on the card.

2026 Arlington Million Picks

These are the three best bets for the Arlington Million:

1. Test Score (2026 Arlington Million odds: 9-2)

In a competitively matched edition of the Arlington Million, it’s a great spot to take a square price on a horse who still has some upside. In this field, Test Score fits that bill beautifully.

Class is not the question with this four-year-old from the Graham Motion barn. He won the Belmont Derby (G1) at Saratoga last year, and annexed the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) in January of this year – in his first try against older horses. In both of those victories, he showed the kind of tactical speed that should suit him well in this spot – and both of those wins came in the hands of jockey Manny Franco, who takes the call in the Arlington Million as well.

The question for Test Score, and the reason why he’ll be an appealing price in the Arlington Million, is the distance. Both of his top-level wins have come at 1 ⅛ miles, and he has yet to win a race – or even start a race – at 1 ¼ miles. Though he was a clear fourth behind Burnham Square in his one start longer than this, the 1 5/16-mile Nashville Derby (G3), that was over the love-it-or-hate-it Kentucky Downs course. The better suggestions may come from his pair of 1 3/16-mile efforts in the Saratoga Derby (G1) last year and the Manhattan (G1) last time out. Both times he ran on with elan late to hit the board and be beaten by only half a length. And, being by Lookin at Lucky out of the Kitten’s Joy mare Joy of Learning (also the dam of the long-winded Admission Office), his pedigree suggests he still has upside to embrace this trip the first time he tries it.

2. Integration (2026 Arlington Million odds: 4-1)

Trainer Shug McGaughey has a pair in here: last year’s winner Fort Washington and last year’s third-place finisher Integration. At ages seven and six, respectively, they’re both known quantities in the turf division: neither are dominant, but both frequently run solid races and have run up seven figures worth of earnings on the grass.

Fort Washington won this race last year, but not only has to move forward from a no-show effort in the Wise Dan (G2) last out but also loses his longtime rider Junior Alvarado – who is riding at Saratoga, but on a group of horses who, on their face, are a surprising exchange for a proven Grade 1 type. Integration, on the other hand? Yes, he was off the board last out in the Manhattan (G1), but he was beaten less than two lengths for the whole thing, despite having to rally from further off the pace than usual. John Velazquez, who has been in the irons for each of his last five starts, reports for duty once again.

Integration always shows up at Colonial Downs: in five starts he has three wins, a second, and a third – and those second- and third-place finishes have come in editions of the Arlington Million. If Integration can get his more typical place within a few lengths of the pace, and time his move just a little better than he did last year when third in this very race, there is no reason this can’t be the year he gets his Million.

3. Mercante (2026 Arlington Million odds: 12-1)

A race this well-matched is bound to have a true long shot in the field, and this race is no different – enter Mercante. Mercante came close behind Lagynos in the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs last out – Lagynos has been one of the toughest customers in the turf division in recent times, and coming that close even with a less-than-firm footing was an excellent effort. Now he gets a firm footing again, something that he tends to do a little better over.

From a pace perspective, it shouldn’t be too hot up front. There are plenty of horses who are happy to chase within a couple lengths of the pace, but the only horse in the field who really tends to hit the gas is Layabout, a long shot who may set the early pace but is unlikely to see it through. Mercante has enough pace to get first run, or even set the terms if Layabout hits a snarl from the near-inside gate.

The connections also bring confidence to this spot. Trainer Brian Knippenberg does not often run horses in graded-stakes – in fact, Mercante is his only graded-stakes winner, and his only graded-stakes starter in the last three years. But, he runs his horses where they fit: Mercante has hit the board in six of his nine graded-stakes tries, right in line with Knippenberg’s 71% in-the-money percentage across all his horses this year. And, jockey Florent Geroux is the only jockey in the field who has won the Arlington Million before. He’s at a point in his career where he is flying under the radar again in graded-stakes races – and the close second-place finish with Mercante in the Wise Dan means that Geroux probably has some rapport going.

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