Colonial Downs Picks: Best Bets on Arlington Million Day, 8/1/2026

Key Takeaways:

• Arlington Million Day offers one of Colonial Downs' strongest cards, with eight stakes races and betting opportunities across dirt and turf.
• Warm, dry weather should keep conditions consistent, but scratches remain important, as they can significantly alter pace performance.
• Langvad & Six Speed: Langvad brings sharp recent form and speed, while Six Speed is well positioned to rebound at his preferred one-turn mile distance.
• Verifire & Slam Notion: Verifire gets an ideal stalking setup in a competitive sprint, while Slam Notion offers longshot value with proven Colonial Downs form.
• Fuzzbuster & Alpyland: Fuzzbuster could capitalize on a contested pace with his late kick, while Alpyland's tactical speed makes him dangerous despite the abundance of front-runners.

The card on Saturday, August 1 at Colonial Downs is the flagship event of the meet: Arlington Million Day. Carrying on a tradition that dates back to John Henry’s historic win at Arlington Park in 1981, the day is a fixture in the American horse racing calendar. The festivities moved to Churchill Downs in 2022, the year after Arlington Park closed, and have been at home at Colonial since 2023.

The Arlington Million (G1) is the showpiece, but there are seven other stakes on the day. Those include the Beverly D. (G2) for fillies and mares, the Secretariat (G2) for sophomores, as well as five ungraded stakes: the Petramalo Mile for dirt sophomores, the Van Clief for turf sprinters, the Andy Guest for filly and mare turf sprinters, the Reigh Count for dirt sprinters, and the Tyson Gilpin for sophomore dirt sprint fillies. With maiden and allowance races as well, featuring both first-time starters and experienced runners, there’s action no matter what kinds of races you like to play.

The first race gets underway at noon Eastern Daylight Time, and you can bet the entire 12-race card at FanDuel. Weather is supposed to be warm, sunny, and clear, but make sure to check scratches before placing your wagers because they can happen for any reason, and they can affect the pace and class balances of the race.

Free Colonial Downs Tips

These are three best picks for Arlington Million Day undercard races at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 1:

Race 5 - Petramalo Mile, one mile on the dirt - Langvad, Six Speed

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 4-1

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This one-turn dirt mile drew a field of eight sophomores, including Kentucky Derby alumnus Six Speed as well as Bravaro, who had a few cracks on the Derby Trail after starting his career against New York-breds. He was named the 4-5 morning-line favorite, perhaps off his victory over a one-turn mile against New York-breds last fall, but nothing makes him exciting at such a short price, and there are better options at better odds.

Saffie Joseph, Jr. has what sometimes feels like an endless supply of live shippers from his barn, and he has another one in Langvad (6-1). This will be his first trip out of Florida for a race, but the credible enough third behind runaway winner Solitude Dude at Tampa last winter suggests that he’s not a Gulfstream-only runner. He appears to have come around for real in his last two starts, a Florida-bred allowance win and then an open stakes win, both by open lengths. And, though he has yet to try a one-turn mile before, seven-furlong form bodes well for such a trip, and two of his three career victories have come going seven furlongs. Regular rider Micah Husbands catches the plane. He knows how to get early speed out of Langvad, and he is likely to be the one to catch here.

Six Speed (4-1) was done at the break last out when cutting back to seven furlongs for the Woody Stephens, his second race stateside. That poor start was a shame since that race was finally getting him back to what he was so good at over the winter: extended one-turn trips. Though he was the early pacesetter in the Kentucky Derby, that was probably, more than anything, a function of his ability to be forward in shorter races like that. At Meydan, he was able to get press-and-pounce and stalk-and-pounce trips, something he should be able to get here as well, especially since the only horse outside him, Sabino Canyon, has two-turn speed but may not have one-turn speed. If he gets that better trip, it would be no surprise to see him find his place in American racing.

Race 7 - Reigh Count Stakes, seven furlongs on the dirt - Verifire, Slam Notion

FanDuel odds: 7-2 and 12-1

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This should be a strong betting race – not only did it draw a 10-horse field, but the morning-line favorite Bracket Buster could not be more suspect. Though he has class, he hasn’t raced since last October, he hasn’t won against older horses yet, and he’s a speed horse who specializes in two-turn races. Seven-furlong horses win seven-furlong races, whereas his trainer’s 7% win rate off layoffs of 90 days or more suggests this is a tune-up for his usual route try.

The pace scenario is interesting, with several runners who are likely to go, but also a lot of speed horses who have a pressing gear or at least an ability to box on when challenged. The likelihood of a nice, clean outside-stalking trip gives Verifire (7-2) the catbird seat. He was off for nine months after a no-show outing in the Jerkens (G1) last summer, came back finishing third in an allowance – behind next-out graded-stakes winner Harrodsburg – and then battled to victory last out in an allowance at Churchill Downs. Those were six-furlong races – but his best effort yet was his win in the seven-furlong Maxfield last year, where he stalked and pounced from a near-outside gate. A return to that kind of form would be no shock off his last, and it would make him tough to topple.

Among the real long shots, give Slam Notion (12-1) a look. The Robert Bailes trainee is a seasoned local: 3: 2-1-0 at Colonial Downs. He is also a strong seven-furlong runner – 5: 3-0-1 at the distance, with his only off-the-board finish coming in a salty edition of the General George earlier this year against the likes of Point Dume and Quint’s Brew. He has the versatility to set the pace or come from a couple of lengths off the pace. Bailes and his regular jockey Jevian Toledo have been a red-hot pair, and if he runs one of his better races, Slam Notion should be able to have a say at a square price.

Race 9 - Secretariat Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Fuzzbuster, Alpyland

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 9-5

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There’s a lot of speed signed on for the Secretariat: Conducted, Infiltrate, Street Beast, Redland Rebels, and even Alpyland are known to hit the gas hard. That means this race should set up nicely for a horse coming off the pace. A lot of bettors will probably default to Supercharger as the logical contender with that race shape, and it’s true that he’s not impossible, but there’s going to be more value taking a shot with Fuzzbuster (8-1). This Victoria Oliver trainee is taking a step up in class, making his first start against winners, and also tries two turns for the first time since that maiden score came in a one-turn mile on the slop. But, he handled turf well in his only try over the surface two back, and is much better bred to handle a turf route than that 5 ½-furlong dash. He has shown enough late foot to be appealing in this spot, and should likely get the jump on shorter-priced closer Supercharger.

Make sure to play the board, but interestingly enough, this may also be a case of the public allowing for value on the morning-line favorite Alpyland (9-5). Alpyland has found his stride as a forwardly-placed type, something that may scare some players off since there’s so much one-way speed in the field. However, his outside gate could give him a sweet and clean outside-stalking trip. Furthermore, he tracked a flying early pace in the Dania Beach earlier this year and had plenty left to score by daylight, suggesting that he’s a fast and hard-fighting horse who should be involved from flag fall to that’s-all.

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