College Football Betting Picks for Friday 9/1/23

Thank all that is good in the world -- college football Week 1 is finally here!

To make matters even sweeter, we will see Division I games played on Thursday through Monday this week. Keeping an eye on Friday's schedule, the 2023 Aflac Kickoff between the Louisville Cardinals and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets seems like a brilliant way to commence the weekend.

Of course, Friday's slate features one other ACC school. In a rare meeting between Miamis, the Miami (FL) Hurricanes will host the Miami (OH) RedHawks -- won't that be fun?

From there, we'll also see a late-night meeting in Honolulu on the first day of September. Kicking off at 11 p.m. ET, the Stanford Cardinal and Hawaii Warriors will be our last taste of college football before Saturday's buffet of games arrives.

With Friday just a couple of moons away, let's dive into college football's September 1st schedule, including the best wager in every noteworthy contest.

Keep in mind -- with the games looming so closely on the calendar, all odds and spreads are subject to incremental movement.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Week 1 Betting Guide (Friday)

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Miami (FL) Hurricanes

• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV: ACCN
• Spread: MIA (FL) -16.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: M-OH +580/MIA -880
• Total: 45.5 (-105/-115)

There are those in the CFB community that have dubbed the meeting between Miami University (OH) and the University of Miami (FL) as the "Confusion Bowl." Admittedly, I had never heard that moniker, as these two sides have not met on the gridiron in my lifetime ... until this upcoming Friday, that is.

The last head-to-head football game between respective Miamis came back in 1987 when the Hurricanes dominated the RedHawks by a score of 54-3. Over a total of three lifetime head-to-head matchups, Miami (FL) has won every contest, displaying an average margin of victory of 27.7 points.

After a 6-7 season in 2022, head coach Chuck Martin is looking to get Miami (OH) back on the right side of .500. Still, they'll find themselves largely overmatched from a talent perspective against Miami-Florida. If I were Martin, I'd shift all emphasis over to stopping the Hurricane connection of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and tight end Elijah Arroyo -- the latter is ranked 10th in the country at his position.

In Coral Gables, former offensive tackle Mario Cristobal is entering his second season as head coach of his alma mater. Like the RedHawks, Miami (FL) also played to an under-.500 record in 2022, but the Hurricanes now seem poised for a bounce-back year. According to ESPN's final SP+ Preseason Rankings, the Canes come in at 37th out of 133 FBS schools. For Miami-Ohio, they are all the way down at 101st.

Best Bet: Miami (FL) -16.5 (-118)

For the first "Confusion Bowl" of the millennium, I am O.K. laying a boatload of points with the Hurricanes. Miami-Florida -- a former national powerhouse -- is looking to return to the top of the mountain. Anchored by a strong defense in 2023 (that is ranked 20th on the SP+), the Hurricanes boast one of the best safety tandems in the country; Kamren Kitchens and James Williams both have the size and skills to thrive on Sundays.

Simply, I think it will prove arduous for Miami-Ohio to consistently score points against Miami-Florida. Leaning on the Canes' historic dominance over the RedHawks, I think Cristobal's bunch opens the season in emphatic fashion.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans

• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
• Spread: MSU -14.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: CMU +440/MSU -610
• Total: 45.5 (-105/-115)

Pitting the Big Ten against the MAC, the Central Michigan Chippewas will make the 70-mile trip south to take on the Michigan State Spartans. The in-state neighbors have met on the gridiron a total of 11 times throughout history, with Michigan State notching their eighth victory in the series over their most recent meeting (2018).

Friday's Great Lakes State affair will be hosted in East Lansing. Still, Sparty has lost to the Chippewas at home before, falling short to CMU in 2009 by a score of 29-27. But considering where both programs are currently at, what will we be in store for this time around?

Excluding the COVID-shortened season of 2020, the Spartans are coming off their most disappointing campaign under head coach Mel Tucker. In Tucker's second year as king of Sparta, Michigan State compiled 11 wins, but then we saw some regression in 2022 -- especially on offense (scoring just 24.4 points per game last season).

Central Michigan went 9-4 in 2021 before falling down to 4-8 last year. For head coach Jim McElwain, 2023 will be his fourth season leading the program in Mount Pleasant, Michigan. The Chippewas look to be improved in the coming season, but does that mean they can hang with a Big Ten opponent like Sparty?

Best Bet: Over 45.5 (-105)

Considering Michigan State is laying upwards of two touchdowns, I was tempted to take the points with Central Michigan here (+14.5), however, I see more value in a play on the total in this contest (yielding a higher potential payout, too).

Sitting at 45.5 points, I am going over for CMU-MSU. If Michigan State can get their offensive production closer to where it was in 2021 (producing 31.8 points per game), I see no reason why these two sides can't collaborate for 46 or more total points. Neither team is particularly stout on defense, as both schools have their defensive units ranked outside the nation's top 25 by ESPN's SP+. Additionally, numberFire's game projections have this contest pegged for approximately 58.9 combined points, which would give us a no-sweat cover on 45.5.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

• Neutral site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Spread: LOU -7.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: LOU -295/GT +235
• Total: 48.5 (-115/-105)

In Friday's marquee matchup, we will see the annual Aflac Kickoff. An Atlanta tradition dating back to 2008, this year's game will feature Louisville traveling down south to meet conference foe Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium -- home of the Atlanta Falcons.

Last season, the Cardinals were a much more competitive side compared to the Yellow Jackets. Louisville managed to go 8-5 in 2022, including a 4-4 ACC record. For Tech, they were 5-7, also going 4-4 in conference last year.

Being in opposite ACC divisions, the Jackets and Cards last met head-to-head in 2020. On that day, GT rolled over Louisville by a score of 46-27. Of course, much has changed between then and now.

On ESPN's 2023 College Football Power Index, Louisville is ranked 43rd in America while Georgia Tech is down at 66th out of 133 institutions. So what will we see in this season's first meeting of ACC sides?

Best Bet: Louisville -7.5 (-105)

Is it possible that the Cardinals best Tech by eight or more points this Friday? Despite the game being in Atlanta (where GT is located), I certainly think Lousiville can run away with this contest. numberFire supports this notion, showing an implied score of 32.21-16.12 with the Cardinals winning. That displays a victory margin greater than two scores for Louisville, which would obviously cover 7.5 points.

From my eye, Louisville appears to be trending much more positively compared to the Jackets. Coming over from the Purdue Boilermakers, head coach Jeff Brohm finally returns to Louisville. As the school's most decorated former quarterback outside of Lamar Jackson, Brohm will put great pride into getting the Cardinals over the hump.

Stanford Cardinal at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

• Time: 11 p.m. ET
• TV: CBSSN
• Spread: STAN -3.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: STAN -176/HAW +146
• Total: 58.5

Not to confuse the Cardinals with the Cardinal, but Stanford University will also be in action this Friday night.

Heading to the United States last time zone, Stanford is scheduled for a game at Aloha Stadium against the Rainbow Warriors. The contest will kick off at 5 p.m. local time, which translates to 8 p.m. on the West Coast and 11 p.m. back East -- wherever your Friday night plans may take you, ask the bartender/shopkeep to throw the television on CBSSN.

The Cardinal have plummeted from grace over the past four seasons, not having won more than four games in a single campaign since 2018. Of course, David Shaw just exited after a dozen years leading the program in Palo Alto. That makes way for head coach Troy Taylor. If you don't know Taylor, he was a star quarterback for the archrival California Golden Bears in the late 1980s, holding most of Berkeley's passing records until Jared Goff arrived on campus. Much more recently, Taylor bolstered a strong program at Sacramento State, which just outputted back-to-back undefeated seasons in the Big Sky Conference.

Stanford is viewed by many to be a bottom team in the Pac-12 in what will be the final traditional season for the conference. Still, Hawaii is not exactly striking fear into the hearts of opponents right now. After losing convincingly in Week 0 against the Vanderbilt Commodores, I will not be rushing to the window to make any plays on the 'Bows.

Best Bet: Stanford -3.5 (-108)

Staying on the chalk, I think a rebuilding Stanford team is still talented enough to win on Oahu by more than a field goal. Hawaii has long been an FBS cellar dweller while the Cardinal are still relatively new at producing poor football seasons.

Reflecting back on this season's college football power index, the Rainbow Warriors come in at 111th out of 133. I'm not claiming Stanford to be vastly superior on the gridiron, but the Cardinal rank 74th on the same list. Additionally, it is not as if Stanford will be traveling from the East Coast -- the Bay Area is just a five-hour flight from Manoa.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.