Churchill Downs Opening Day Picks: Kentucky Derby Week, 4/25/26

Key Takeaways:

• Opening day at Churchill Downs offers an early read on track tendencies ahead of 2026 Kentucky Derby week, making trip efficiency and pace dynamics especially important factors as horseplayers begin to gauge how the surface is playing.
• In lower-level claiming sprints, horses capable of stalking contested early fractions often gain a practical advantage, particularly when multiple pace-forward runners create conditions that favor a runner finishing strongest in the final furlong.
• In short-distance stakes like the Roxelana Stakes, versatility in running style can separate contenders from the field, especially when a defending winner has already demonstrated the ability to adapt to different pace scenarios over the local surface.
• In turf allowances at middle distances, lightly raced runners with prior trip trouble frequently present upside for improvement, as a cleaner tactical journey and familiarity with the distance can produce a more efficient late run.

Kentucky Derby week begins Saturday, April 25, at Churchill Downs. The Run for the Roses happens a week later, on May 2, but all eyes will be on Louisville this Saturday. The track has a full 10-race card planned. And, to raise the excitement even more, the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks post position draws will happen during the Churchill opening-day card. It gives people in Louisville an early chance to flash their classic Derby style, and better yet, gives horseplayers a chance to start getting a handle on how the track might play during the sprint meet a full week before the Kentucky Derby is run.

Saturday’s horse racing action is highlighted by the Roxelana Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. The rest of the card features a full range of action, everything from a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it baby race to an oversubscribed allowance for older horses going long on the turf.

Saturday is just the beginning: Kentucky Derby week continues with Sunday racing at Churchill Downs and then more exciting racing action on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Kentucky Oaks day Friday, and then Kentucky Derby day Saturday. The first race gets underway at 12:45 p.m. EDT on Saturday, and you can stay on top of all the news and racing action at FanDuel TV. You can bet every race online through FanDuel, as well.

Churchill Downs Opening Day Picks

Here are three expert selections for opening day at Churchill Downs:

Race 4: $12,500 claiming, six furlongs on the dirt - Lord Majesty, Upturned Brim

FanDuel odds: 5-2 and 4-1

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Lord Majesty (5-2) missed catching Illini last out in a starter allowance at Indiana Grand, but things could set up better for him this time around. There’s a bigger field – including Bet on Bret and possibly even Hocus, who could cause some trouble for Illini through the early stages. Lord Majesty won’t be far away, but should be able to stay out of that pace battle and pick them up in the stretch when they tire. It also doesn’t hurt matters that he won at Churchill Downs last fall at this same open $12,500 claiming level.

Upturned Brim (4-1) is another horse who could work a stalking trip here. He won in stalk-and-bounce fashion over six furlongs at Fair Grounds over the winter in a $15,000 beaten claiming group, putting forth the kind of effort that would fit right in against this company. Speaking of class, he also drops from a starter-allowance/optional claiming group last out to a group of straight claimers this time around. It’s his second start off a brief freshening, and if he moves a reasonable step forward, he’ll be back at his Fair Grounds form and could work just the right trip here.

Race 9: Roxelana Stakes, six furlongs on the dirt - Mink’s Palace, Lotsandlotsofcandy

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 7-2

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Mink’s Palace (8-1) won this race last year and comes in off of a similar layoff this year – freshened up after a race in late December. Her last race was on all-weather, but she has four wins and another three money finishes over the Churchill Downs dirt. She usually rallies from midpack or a little further back, a trip that may suit her well, given that there are several speed horses drawn into the field. However, she is versatile enough to handle being closer if need be – Luis Saez did exactly that when winning the Roxelana with her last year, and Saez gets back in the irons for this.

Lotsandlotsofcandy (7-2) finished off the board last out at Fair Grounds, but that was her first try on the grass. All four of her career wins have come on the dirt, including a pair over the Churchill Downs surface. Pace is the question, as Jersey Pearl also had early speed. But, she doesn’t always make the top, and even if she does, Lotsandlotsofcandy has been able to battle early on the pace and keep going to win. Under regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr., she should prove the best of the frontrunning horses.

Race 10: Allowance, 1 ⅛ miles on the turf - Without, Theodore George

FanDuel odds: 8-5 and 12-1

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Without (8-5) was fifth at this level and distance last out at Keeneland, but was beaten only a length for top money despite some trip trouble in the race. The cut back to 1 ⅛ miles from longer races at Gulfstream helped him along, and it’s good to see him return to the same distance for this. Trainer Graham Motion tends to swing back hard with horses who were beaten favorites in their previous start. He doesn’t have to come from as far back as he did last time, and if he gets a more tactical trip, he will be right in the picture at the finish – and, unlike a lot of horses in this field who have serious second-itis, he is still lightly raced.

Theodore George (12-1) also has some upside here, as he has raced only four times. Turf is still a question, though he wasn’t disgraced two back when seventh at this distance at Santa Anita, beaten less than four lengths after a troubled trip. He is bred top and bottom for distance, he won a maiden race at 1 ⅛ miles on slop, and his dam is a stakes winner and Grade 2-placed on the lawn. Trainer Michael McCarthy can shine at a price when running a horse who looks ambitiously placed, and this looks like one of those cases where it will be smart to take a swing.

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